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April 8, 2026

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S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

What falling wage growth says about where the U.S. economy is heading

Americans are getting smaller pay raises while tariffs and higher gas prices are threatening to make everything more expensive.

Translation: The affordability problem isn’t improving.

New government data released Friday showed non-supervisory workers getting a 3.4% pay raise on average hourly earnings over the last year. That’s the slowest pace of wage gains since 2021, and a downshift from the last two years, when pay bumps were closer to 4%.

The slowdown comes as economists worry about rising inflation, with the Iran war choking off oil tankers and pushing gas prices up over $1 per gallon in just a month, to a national average of $4.09 on Friday.

As diesel costs break $5.50 a gallon (compared to just $3.89 a month ago), retailers and grocers are now contending with higher transportation costs. Amazon said Thursday it will begin charging sellers a 3.5% “fuel and logistics-related surcharge” beginning on April 17.

Airlines like United and JetBlue are raising bag fees in an effort to offset sky-high jet fuel costs. The International Air Transport Association says the price of jet fuel is up 104% in the past month.

“With the recent uptick in inflation driven by energy prices, real wage growth is likely to decelerate further, putting increased pressure on consumers,” said Thrivent’s chief financial and investment officer, David Royal.

For now, Americans are still seeing their earnings rise at a faster pace than the increase in price tags at the store. As pay rose by 3.4%, the most recent inflation data showed prices rising by 2.4% year-over-year.

Wage gains for non-supervisory employees — a category that includes roughly four out of every five non-farm workers — have been outpacing price increases since March 2023, when post-pandemic inflation finally began to cool.

But the concern is that the story could change soon. Because of the bump from oil prices, Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long said it’s possible inflation could pace at 4% this month.

“Four percent is above that 3.5 percent annual wage gain, and that’s where you see a lot of squeeze on workers, particularly middle-class and moderate-income workers,” Long said.

Warning signs are flashing that slowing wage growth could ripple beyond the gas station and prices at the grocery store. Higher mortgage rates now have some worried about icing out even more potential homebuyers.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 5.99% at the start of the war to 6.45% on April 3, according to Mortgage News Daily. The rise is due in part to concerns that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates to tamp down on war-driven inflation.

“With choppy job growth, weaker labor-force attachment and rising uncertainty, many households — especially renters and first-time buyers — could become more cautious as weaker inflation-adjusted wages erode recent affordability improvements,” said Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy.

If wages can’t keep up with rising costs across the board, it’s likely that affordability will become a larger issue than it already was prior to the war. An NBC News poll conducted during the first week of the war with Iran found that, for a plurality of respondents, inflation and the cost of living was the most important issue facing the country.

Economists feel the same way.

Responding to a question from NBC News at a March 18 news conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that “real” wage gains — a measure of wages adjusted for inflation — need to be positive in order for Americans to feel better about affordability.

“it will take some years of positive real earning gains for people to feel good again, we think. But you’re right — when you talk to people, they do feel squeezed,” Powell said.