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Bullish Percent Index Confirms Short-Term Rebound

One of my favorite market breadth indicators remained in an extreme bearish reading through the end of last week, standing in stark contrast to growing optimism after last Wednesday’s sudden spike higher.  Monday’s session saw the Bullish Percent Indexes cross above the crucial 30% level for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.  While I remain skeptical of meaningful upside without further confirmation, this bullish rotation does seem to confirm a short-term tactical rally for stocks.

Bullish Percent Index Shows Improved Breadth for S&P 500

The Bullish Percent Index uses point & figure charts to analyze the percentage of stocks in a universe that are in uptrends.  By looking at the most recent buy or sell signal on each individual point & figure chart, the indicator can help validate when a critical mass of stocks have rotated from a bearish phase to a bullish phase.

At the end of September 2024, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index showed a reading just above 80%.  By early December, the indicator was down to around 70%, and at the February 2025 high had reached 55%.  Last week, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index was just above 10%.  Indeed, almost all of the S&P 500 members were in confirmed point & figure downtrends.

Breadth Surge Similar to Previous Lows

The Bullish Percent Index for the Nasdaq 100 as well as the S&P 500 both spiked higher by the end of last week following the latest changes to US tariff policy.  As of Monday’s close the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index had reached 39%, up from 6% a week earlier. 

We can see four other times in the last two years where the Bullish Percent Index has touched the 30% level, and in three of the four times this reversal marked a significant low for the Nasdaq 100.  The most recent observation was last month, which saw a brief upswing before the latest downturn for the major equity averages.

So for both the Nasdaq 100 as well as the S&P 500, a move back above the 30% threshold appears to indicate a decent chance at a tradable move higher.  But will that upswing necessarily lead to sustainable gains?

Long-Term Review Yields Mixed Results

Let’s take a longer look back to the year 2000 and see what has happened following a move below the 30% level for the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index.  Now we can see that while major lows often coincide with the indicator moving back above 30%, we can also see plenty of times where an initial bounce higher was eventually met with further selling.

Note the extreme low readings in June 2022, August 2015, and January 2009.  Even though there was an initial swing higher in all three cases, the market made a new swing low before achieving an eventual bottom for the bear cycle.

With the Bullish Percent Indexes rotating back to a more neutral reading this week, we are seeing plenty of signs of a tactical rally.  We may even see our Market Trend Model turn bullish on the short-term time frame as early as this Friday.  But with the major averages still making a clear pattern of lower lows and lower highs, we feel further confirmation is necessary before declaring any sort of “all clear” for US stocks.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The Trader’s Flashlight in a Market Fog: What are Candlestick Patterns?

From Tokyo rice markets to Wall Street trading floors, candlestick patterns have stood the test of time.

Now, in the high-stakes world of cryptocurrency trading, where government policies can shift the market overnight, understanding these patterns could mean the difference between profit and loss.

In such a volatile environment, traders have continuously searched for signals amid the chaos, and many have claimed that these patterns offer a guiding light.

But how do these candlestick patterns work, and why do traders rely on them? Here’s what you need to know.

History of candlestick patterns

Candlestick charting traces its origins to 18th century Japan, where Munehisa Homma, a wealthy rice trader from Sakata, developed a system to analyze price movements in the rice futures market.

Homma meticulously recorded price fluctuations and identified patterns that reflected market sentiment, realizing that emotions such as fear and greed played a crucial role in price action. His insights allowed him to anticipate market trends, reportedly leading to immense trading success.

Homma’s techniques evolved into a structured system known as the Sakata Rules, which later laid the foundation for modern candlestick patterns. These rules emphasized the importance of recognizing repetitive price formations and interpreting their psychological implications.

Homma’s pioneering work made him legendary in Japan’s trading circles, with some historical accounts claiming he executed 100 consecutive winning trades using his methodology.

Candlestick charts remained largely unknown outside Japan until the late 20th century, where Steve Nison, an American technical analyst, introduced candlestick charting to Western financial markets in the 1980s.

Through extensive research, Nison translated and refined Japanese candlestick techniques, integrating them into modern technical analysis. His 1991 book, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, became a seminal work, widely regarded as the definitive guide on the subject.

Key candlestick patterns you need to know

Candlestick patterns provide traders with crucial insights into market sentiment, signaling potential reversals, continuations, or periods of indecision. These patterns are categorized into three main types:

  1. Bullish patterns indicating possible uptrends
  2. Bearish patterns signaling potential downtrends
  3. Neutral patterns suggesting indecision or continuation

Bullish patterns

Bullish candlestick patterns typically appear after a downtrend, signaling a potential shift in momentum as buying pressure increases. These patterns suggest that buyers are stepping in and that a reversal to the upside may be underway.

Bullish engulfing

Bullish engulfing candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Bullish engulfing: A two-candle pattern where a small bearish candle is followed by a larger bullish candle that completely engulfs the previous day’s body. This formation suggests a strong shift in momentum, as buying pressure overwhelms selling pressure. The larger the engulfing candle, the more powerful the signal.

Hammer

Hammer candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Hammer: A single candlestick with a small body near the top of its range and a long lower shadow. It appears after a downtrend and signals that despite initial selling pressure, buyers regained control and pushed prices back up. A hammer is more reliable when it forms near a significant support level.

Inverted hammer

Inverted hammer candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Inverted hammer: Similar to the hammer, but with a small body at the lower end of the range and a long upper shadow. This pattern suggests that buyers attempted to push prices higher after a decline, potentially signaling a reversal. It requires confirmation from the next candle closing higher.

Morning star

Morning star candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Morning star: A three-candle formation that signifies a trend reversal. It starts with a long bearish candle, followed by a small-bodied candle (which may be bullish or bearish) that gaps down, and finally, a strong bullish candle that closes well into the first candle’s body. This pattern suggests that bearish momentum is weakening and buyers are taking control.

Three white soldiers

Three white soldiers candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Three white soldiers: A powerful bullish pattern made up of three consecutive long bullish candles with small or no wicks. Each candle opens within the previous candle’s body and closes progressively higher. This pattern suggests a strong and sustained uptrend, particularly when accompanied by high volume.

Bearish patterns

Bearish candlestick patterns appear after an uptrend, signaling a potential reversal as selling pressure increases. These formations suggest that buyers are losing momentum, and a downward move may be imminent.

Bearish engulfing

Bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Bearish engulfing: The opposite of the bullish engulfing pattern, this formation occurs when a small bullish candle is followed by a larger bearish candle that completely engulfs the previous day’s body. This suggests a shift from buying to selling pressure, often signaling the start of a downtrend.

Shooting star

Shooting star candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Shooting star: The shooting star is a single candle with a small body near the lower end of the trading range and a long upper shadow. It indicates that buyers pushed prices higher, but strong selling pressure forced prices back down, making it a potential reversal signal.

Hanging man

Hanging man candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Hanging man: Resembling the hammer, the hanging man appears at the top of an uptrend instead of the bottom. It has a small body and a long lower shadow, signaling that selling pressure is starting to emerge. A confirmation from the next candle closing lower strengthens this bearish signal.

Evening star

Evening star candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Evening star: The bearish counterpart to the morning star, this three-candle pattern starts with a strong bullish candle, followed by a small-bodied candle that gaps up, and then a long bearish candle that closes well into the first candle’s body. This signals a transition from bullish to bearish momentum.

Three black crows

Three black crows candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Three black crows: This pattern consists of three consecutive long bearish candles with small wicks, each opening within the previous candle’s body and closing progressively lower. It signals strong selling pressure and the likelihood of a continued downtrend.

Neutral patterns

Neutral candlestick patterns signal market indecision and can lead to either a continuation of the existing trend or a reversal. Traders should consider additional indicators or confirmation signals before acting on these patterns.

Doji

Doji candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Doji: A candlestick where the opening and closing prices are nearly identical, resulting in a small or nonexistent body. Doji patterns indicate market indecision and can appear in various forms:
    • Standard doji: Signals uncertainty, often preceding a breakout or reversal.
    • Gravestone doji: A bearish signal, with a long upper shadow and no lower shadow, indicating rejection at higher prices.
    • Dragonfly doji: A bullish signal, with a long lower shadow and no upper shadow, showing strong buying interest.

Spinning top

Spinning top candlestick pattern.

Image via commons.wikimedia.org.

  • Spinning top: Featuring a small body with long upper and lower shadows, the spinning top reflects a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, often signaling consolidation or a possible trend reversal.

Combining candlestick patterns with indicators

While candlestick patterns provide valuable insights into market sentiment, relying on them alone can lead to false signals, especially in a volatile market like Bitcoin.

To increase accuracy, traders often combine these patterns with technical indicators that help confirm trends, momentum and potential reversals. Below are some of the most effective indicators to use alongside candlestick patterns:

  1. Moving averages — Moving averages smooth out price fluctuations and help traders identify the prevailing trend. They can also act as dynamic support and resistance levels.

Application: If a bullish candlestick pattern (eg., bullish engulfing, morning star) appears while Bitcoin’s price is above a key moving average (such as the 50 day or 200 day MA), this strengthens the signal that an uptrend may continue.

Conversely, if a bearish candlestick pattern (eg., bearish engulfing, shooting star) forms below a moving average, it increases the likelihood of further downside.

  1. Relative Strength Index (RSI) — RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price movements on a scale of zero to 100. A reading above 70 suggests overbought conditions (potential reversal or pullback), while a reading below 30 suggests oversold conditions (potential buying opportunity).

Application: A bullish candlestick pattern forming when RSI is below 30 strengthens the case for a trend reversal (eg., a Hammer appearing in oversold conditions could indicate a strong buying opportunity).

A bearish candlestick pattern forming when RSI is above 70 suggests that the price may be primed for a pullback (eg., a Shooting Star forming in overbought conditions signals potential downside).

  1. Volume analysis – Volume represents the number of trades executed and provides insight into the strength behind price movements. A price move with high volume is more significant than one with low volume.

Application: If a bullish reversal pattern (eg., morning star) appears with high volume, it confirms strong buyer interest and increases the likelihood of a sustained uptrend.

If a bearish reversal pattern (eg., bearish engulfing) forms with high volume, it signals aggressive selling pressure and strengthens the bearish outlook.

Common mistakes to avoid

While candlestick patterns are valuable tools, it is very easy to misuse them—leading to unnecessary losses. Understanding common pitfalls can help investors refine their strategies and improve decision making.

  1. Trading candlestick patterns without confirmation
    Many traders see a single candlestick pattern, such as a Bullish Engulfing or Shooting Star, and immediately enter a trade without waiting for additional confirmation. This leads to false signals and premature decisions.

How to avoid it: Always combine candlestick patterns with other indicators (eg., RSI, moving averages, volume analysis). Furthermore, look for follow-through price action — a second candle that confirms the expected move.

  1. Ignoring the importance of timeframes
    A common trap is assuming that a candlestick pattern on a 5 minute chart carries the same weight as one on a daily or weekly chart. Shorter timeframes are more prone to noise and false signals.

How to avoid it: Prioritize patterns on higher timeframes (daily, weekly) for more reliable signals. If trading lower timeframes (eg. 15 minute chart), ensure the pattern aligns with the higher timeframe trend.

  1. Overtrading and chasing every pattern
    Some traders try to trade every candlestick pattern they see, leading to excessive trades, emotional decision making and mounting losses. Overtrading often results from fear of missing out or lack of patience

How to avoid it: Stick to high-probability setups where multiple factors confirm the trade. Wait for patterns to form at key levels, not in random price areas. Set clear entry and exit rules instead of reacting impulsively.

  1. Failing to adapt to market conditions
    Candlestick patterns do not work the same way in all market environments. Some traders blindly follow textbook interpretations without considering other factors. Candlestick patterns are purely technical, but the market is heavily influenced by fundamental news. Ignoring events like ETF approvals, regulatory shifts, or major financial institution involvement can lead to poor trading decisions.

How to avoid it: Always check news before trading, especially for large moves. Avoid trading right before or after high-impact events, as volatility can distort patterns. Use candlestick analysis in combination with fundamental trends.

Final thoughts

Candlestick patterns have stood the test of time, but while these patterns offer valuable insights into market sentiment, they are not foolproof signals. Successful trading is a holistic skill — it means understanding that context, confirmation and discipline are just as important as recognizing the patterns themselves.

By combining these patterns with other essential factors and indicators, traders can refine their strategies and make more informed decisions.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Rio Tinto Unveils 158.2 Carat Yellow Diamond, Plus Rare Auction and Tariff Tensions

In a discovery that offers a glimmer of optimism amid a turbulent year for the diamond industry, Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) has unveiled a 158.2 carat yellow diamond from its Diavik diamond mine, located in the remote Northwest Territories (NWT).

The rough gem, described by Rio Tinto as a “miracle of nature,” is one of only five yellow diamonds exceeding 100 carats ever recovered from Diavik since it began operations in 2003.

The diamond, unearthed from one of the most challenging mining environments on Earth, underscores Diavik’s reputation for producing rare and high-quality stones.

While the mine is best known for its white gem-quality diamonds, less than one percent of its output consists of yellow diamonds, making this latest find a significant event in the mine’s 22 year history.

“This two billion year old, natural Canadian diamond is a miracle of nature and testament to the skill and fortitude of all the men and women who work in Diavik’s challenging sub-Arctic environment,” said Matt Breen, COO of Diavik Diamond Mines, in a press release.

The Diavik mine, jointly operated by Rio Tinto and located entirely off the grid, has also become a model for sustainable mining in the Arctic. It has integrated renewable energy sources into its operations, including a wind-diesel hybrid facility introduced in 2012 and a solar power plant completed in 2024.

This commitment to sustainability adds further value to its diamonds, which carry a provenance often sought by ethical consumers and collectors alike.

This is not the first time Diavik has made headlines with extraordinary finds. In 2018, the mine unearthed a 552 carat yellow gem-quality diamond — the largest ever found in North America.

Known as the ‘Canadamark’ yellow diamond, the discovery eclipsed the previous record set by the 187.7 carat Diavik Foxfire diamond, found in 2015.

Portions of the Foxfire were later cut into two brilliant-cut pear-shaped diamonds, which sold at a Christie’s auction for US$1.3 million.

But while such discoveries reinforce Diavik’s status as a producer of rare gems, they also arrive during a precarious moment for the broader NWT mining sector.

The territory’s three major diamond mines — Diavik, Ekati, and Gahcho Kué — are grappling with steep financial losses, with Diavik alone reporting a US$127 million loss in 2024. These financial headwinds stem from a combination of inflationary pressures, weakened global diamond prices, and unexpected disruptions, including a tragic plane crash near Fort Smith early last year.

Industry advocates are now urging the territorial government to step in and provide relief, particularly in the form of easing property tax burdens.

Blue diamond steals spotlight in US$100 million Sotheby’s exhibit in Abu Dhabi

On the international front, a 10 carat rare blue diamond from South Africa has emerged as the crown jewel of Sotheby’s latest diamond exhibition in Abu Dhabi.

Part of an eight stone showcase valued at over US$100 million, the blue diamond is expected to fetch around US$20 million when it goes to auction in May.

Sotheby’s selected the UAE capital for the exhibit due to the region’s increasing appetite for high-end diamonds. “We have great optimism about the region,” said Quig Bruning, the company’s head of jewels in North America, Europe, and the Middle East.

“We feel very strongly that this is the kind of place where you have both traders and collectors of diamonds of this importance and of this rarity.”

Petra Diamonds delays Cullinan tender as US tariff shockwaves hit market

Meanwhile, Petra Diamonds (LSE:PDL,OTCPink:PDLMF) announced last week that it would delay the sale of gems from its Cullinan mine due to uncertainty over new US tariffs on imports — including diamonds.

The delay comes amid heightened concerns that the tariffs, introduced last week, could disrupt global diamond flows and further depress an already sluggish market.

Petra had already sold 176,000 carats from its Finsch and Williamson mines for US$18 million in its fifth tender of the year — a modest 9 percent price increase over the previous round.

However, overall tender revenue is down 25 percent year-on-year, totaling $103 million so far in 2025, compared to US$138 million during the same period in 2024. Shares of Petra fell 6.1 percent following the announcement.

The Cullinan Mine, famously the source of the largest gem-quality diamond ever discovered, has recently struggled to yield high-quality stones, further complicating Petra’s recovery efforts amid market volatility and its ongoing restructuring plan.

The diamond market isn’t the only luxury segment to be impacted by geopolitical trade tensions.

On April 10, Prada Group (HKEX:1913) which owns luxury brand Prada, announced its acquisition of the Versace brand from Capri Holdings (NYSE:CPRI) for US$1.38 billion, marking a significant consolidation in the luxury fashion industry.

The deal reunites two iconic Italian brands and positions Prada to better compete with industry leaders like LVMH (OTC Pink:LVMHF,EPA:MC) and Kering (EPA:SSKEG). Capri Holdings, which acquired Versace for US$2.1 billion in 2018, faced challenges with the brand’s performance, including a 15 percent decline in revenue in late 2024. The sale allows Capri to refocus on its core brand, Michael Kors, and address financial pressures following a blocked merger with Tapestry (NYSE:TPR) in 2023.

According to a January report from McKinsey, The luxury goods sector faces a challenging outlook in 2025, with global growth projected to slow to between 1 percent and 3 percent annually through 2027.

This deceleration follows a period where price increases accounted for over 80 percent of growth from 2019 to 2023, a strategy that has now reached its limit as aspirational consumers become more price sensitive.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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The Bottom is Here or Rapidly Approaching

I pay attention to technical support levels as the combination of price support/resistance is always my primary stock market indicator. We’re in a downtrend and, in my opinion, the trading range is very, very clear on the S&P 500 right now:

I think most everyone can agree that much of the selling and fear and panic can be attributed the trade war – at least much of the weakness occurred with startling tariff news. So I figured I’d take a look at Q4 2018, which also experienced a 2-3 month bear market with the S&P 500 just barely reaching the prerequisite 20% drop. Here’s what that looked like:

The chart pattern during Q4 2018 was quite similar. The VIX more than tripled from under 12 to above 36. The VIX also more than tripled in 2025, after starting from a much higher level near 15. In both 2018 and 2025, that initial selling episode saw a drop of roughly 10% before consolidating. Then the next drop was another 10% or so. We don’t know if the selling for 2025 has ended, though, as that’s the wild card.

Here’s what we do know about sentiment. The VIX, with a value in the 50s, is signaling a potential S&P 500 bottom. Historically, surges in the VIX to this level or higher, have coincided either with stock market bottoms or they at least they suggest that any future selling in the S&P 500 is likely to be minor. Here’s a long-term monthly chart of the S&P 500 and the VIX, showing this relationship:

Extreme fear marks bottoms and I believe this is a great visual to support this belief. History tells us that when the VIX tops, we’ve either bottomed or we’re very close to bottoming.

Late last week, we saw both the March Core CPI and March Core PPI come in well below expectations, which was a good result for those hoping for rate cuts to begin again later this year. On Friday, a lot of folks were talking very bearish after the University of Michigan consumer sentiment plummeted to a near 50-year low. The problem with that bearish line of thinking is that sentiment is a contrarian indicator. Bearish readings tend to be quite bullish for stocks, while bullish readings can mark significant tops. Don’t believe me? Check out this chart and then provide me your best bearish argument:

The low readings in the green-shaded areas are actually very bullish. You can’t argue with history and facts. When the general public is feeling despair, it’s the time to buy stocks, not sell. And for those who believe this time is different, let’s check back in one year from now and let’s see where we are.

Note one more thing. The absolute highest consumer sentiment reading was at the beginning of 2000, just before the dot com bubble burst. Everyone felt great back then and the S&P 500 didn’t make a meaningful new all-time high for 13 years. So you tell me, would you rather see sentiment strength or weakness?

I know it sounds awful to hear that consumer sentiment readings are among the lowest in history and it likely makes little sense to many why the stock market would go higher while sentiment is so negative. But you have to remember that the stock market looks 6-9 months ahead. It’s not concerned with the news coming out now. It’s much more concerned about what the market environment will look like later this year.

Here’s my last point for today. We’ve begun to see more bullish rotation among sectors and between growth and value. Let me show you one final chart that highlights the rotation into growth as the S&P 500 continues its descent:

Notice the S&P 500 made its final high in February as money rotated quickly from growth to value in the two months prior. That was Wall Street exiting the riskier areas of the market, when everything still looked fine. It was one of the many reasons why I turned cautious and moved to cash in late January. Now the opposite is occurring. The S&P 500 is downtrending and the news just keeps getting worse. Meanwhile, Wall Street is happily buying all the risky shares you’d like to sell.

Listen, I’ve been wrong before and maybe I’m wrong and the S&P 500 continues to decline throughout 2025. But I trust my review of the market and my signals that have worked so well for me in the past. I’m perfectly fine owning stocks right now.

Tomorrow morning, in our free EB Digest newsletter, I’ll be showing everyone the extreme manipulation that’s been taking place in the stock market the past 4 weeks or so. Market makers are stealing (legally) from all of us. I spotted this manipulation back in June 2022, which helped me to go against the grain and call the market bottom then and I’m seeing it again now. To learn more, be sure to CLICK HERE and sign up for our FREE EB Digest newsletter, if you haven’t already. There’s no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Top 5 Canadian Silver Stocks of 2025

Silver-mining companies and juniors have seen support from a strong silver price in 2025. Since the start of the year, the price of silver has increased by over 11 percent as of April 11, and it reached a year-to-date high of US$34.38 per ounce on March 27.

Silver’s dual function as a monetary and industrial metal offers great upside. Demand from energy transition sectors, especially for use in the production of solar panels, has created tight supply and demand forces.

Demand is already outpacing mine supply, making for a positive situation for silver-producing companies.

So far, aboveground stockpiles have been keeping the price in check, but the expectation is those stocks will be depleted in 2025 or 2026, further restricting the supply side of the market.

How has silver’s price movement benefited Canadian silver stocks on the TSX, TSXV and CSE? The five companies listed below have seen the best performances since the start of the year. Data was gathered using TradingView’s stock screener on February 12, 2025, and all companies listed had market caps over C$10 million at that time.

1. Discovery Silver (TSX:DSV)

Year-to-date gain: 185.92 percent
Market cap: C$848.98 million
Share price: C$2.03

Discovery Silver is a precious metals development company focused on advancing its Cordero silver project in Mexico. Additionally, it is looking to become a gold producer with its recently announced acquisition of the producing Porcupine Complex in Ontario, Canada.

Cordero is located in Mexico’s Chihuahua State and is composed of 26 titled mining concessions covering approximately 35,000 hectares in a prolific silver and gold mining district.

A 2024 feasibility study for the project outlines proven and probable reserves of 327 million metric tons of ore containing 302 million ounces of silver at an average grade of 29 grams per metric ton (g/t) silver, and 840,000 ounces of gold at an average grade of 0.08 g/t gold. The site also hosts significant zinc and lead reserves.

The report also indicated favorable economics for development. At a base case scenario of US$22 per ounce of silver and US$1,600 per ounce of gold, the project has an after-tax net present value of US$1.18 billion, an internal rate of return of 22 percent and a payback period of 5.2 years.

Discovery’s shares gained significantly on January 27, after the company announced it had entered into a deal to acquire the Porcupine Complex in Canada from Newmont (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM).

The Porcupine Complex is made up of four mines including two that are already in production: Hoyle Pond and Borden. Additionally, a significant portion of the complex is located in the Timmins Gold Camp, a region known for historic gold production.

Discovery anticipates production of 285,000 ounces of gold annually over the next 10 years and has a mine life of 22 years. Inferred resources at the site point to significant expansion, with 12.49 million ounces of gold, from 254.5 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 1.53 g/t.

Upon the closing of the transaction, Discovery will pay Newmont US$200 million in cash and US$75 million in common shares, and US$150 million of deferred consideration will be paid in four payments beginning on December 31, 2027.

According to Discovery in its full-year 2024 financial results, the Porcupine acquisition will help support the financing, development and operation of Cordero. Discovery’s share price reached a year-to-date high of C$2.12 on March 31.

2. Almaden Minerals (TSX:AMM)

Year-to-date gain: 136.36 percent
Market cap: C$16.47 million
Share price: C$0.13

Almaden Minerals is a precious metals exploration company working to advance the Ixtaca gold and silver deposit in Puebla, Mexico. According to the company website, the deposit was discovered by Almaden’s team in 2010 and has seen more than 200,000 meters of drilling across 500 holes.

A July 2018 resource estimate shows measured resources of 862,000 ounces of gold and 50.59 million ounces of silver from 43.38 million metric tons of ore, and indicated resources of 1.15 million ounces of gold and 58.87 million ounces of silver from 80.76 million metric tons of ore with a 0.3 g/t cutoff.

In April 2022, Mexico’s Supreme Court of Justice (SCJN) ruled that the initial licenses issued in 2002 and 2003 would be reverted back to application status after the court found there had been insufficient consultation when the licenses were originally assigned.

Ultimately, the applications were denied in February 2023, effectively halting progress on the Ixtaca project. While subsequent court cases have preserved Almaden’s mineral rights, it has yet to restore the licenses to continue work on the project.

In June 2024, Almaden announced it had confirmed up to US$9.5 million in litigation financing that will be used to fund international arbitrations proceedings against Mexico under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

In a December update, the company announced that several milestones had been achieved, including the first session with the tribunal, at which the company was asked to submit memorial documents outlining its legal arguments by March 20, 2025. At that time, the company stated it would vigorously pursue the claim but preferred a constructive resolution with Mexico.

In its most recent update on March 21, the company indicated that it had submitted the requested documents, claiming US$1.06 billion in damages. The memorial document outlines how Mexico breached its obligations and unlawfully expropriated Almaden’s investments without compensation.

Shares in Almaden reached a year-to-date high of C$0.135 on February 24.

3. Avino Silver & Gold Mines (TSX:ASM)

Year-to-date gain: 98.43 percent
Market cap: C$373.48 million
Share price: C$2.52

Avino Silver and Gold Mines is a precious metals miner with two primary silver assets: the producing Avino silver mine and the neighboring La Preciosa project in Durango, Mexico.

The Avino mine is capable of processing 2,500 metric tons of ore per day ore, and according to its FY24 report released on January 21 the mine produced 1.1 million ounces of silver, 7,477 ounces of gold and 6.2 million pounds of copper last year. Overall, the company saw broad production increases with silver rising 19 percent, gold rising 2 percent and copper increasing 17 percent year over year.

In addition to its Avino mining operation, Avino is working to advance its La Preciosa project toward the production stage. The site covers 1,134 hectares, and according to a February 2023 resource estimate, hosts a measured and indicated resource of 98.59 million ounces of silver and 189,190 ounces of gold.

In a January 15 update, Avino announced it had received all necessary permits for mining at La Preciosa and begun underground development at La Preciosa. It is now developing a 350-meter mine access and haulage decline. The company said the first phase at the site is expected to be under C$5 million and will be funded from cash reserves.

The latest update from Avino occurred on March 11, when it announced its 2024 financial results. The company reported record revenue of $24.4 million, up 95 percent compared to 2023. Avino also reduced its costs per silver ounce sold.

Additionally, Avino reported a 19 percent increase in production in 2024, producing 1.11 million ounces of silver compared to 928,643 ounces in 2023. The company’s sales also increased, up by 23 percent to 2.56 million ounces of silver compared to 2.09 million ounces the previous year.

Avino’s share price marked a year-to-date high of C$2.80 on March 27.

4. Highlander Silver (CSE:HSLV)

Year-to-date gain: 90 percent
Market cap: C$160.17 million
Share price: C$1.90

Highlander Silver is an exploration and development company advancing projects in South America.

Its primary focus has been the San Luis silver-gold project, which it acquired in a May 2024 deal from SSR Mining (TSX:SSRM,NASDAQ:SSRM) for US$5 million in upfront cash consideration and up to an additional US$37.5 million if Highlander meets certain production milestones.

The 23,098 hectare property, located in the Ancash department of Peru, hosts a historic measured and indicated mineral resource of 9 million ounces of silver, with an average grade of 578.1 g/t, and 348,000 ounces of gold at an average grade of 22.4 g/t from 484,000 metric tons of ore.

In July 2024, the company said it was commencing field activities at the project; it has not provided results from the program. In its December 2024 management discussion and analysis, the company stated it was undertaking a review of prior exploration plans and targets, adding that it believes there is exceptional growth potential.

Highlander’s most recent news came on March 11, when it announced it had closed an upsized bought deal private placement for gross proceeds of C$32 million. The company said it will use the funding to further exploration activities at San Luis and for general working capital.

Shares in Highlander reached a year-to-date high of C$1.96 on March 31.

5. Santacruz Silver Mining (TSXV:SCZ)

Year-to-date gain: 85.45 percent
Market cap: C$192.16 million
Share price: C$0.51

Santacruz Silver is an Americas-focused silver producer with operations in Bolivia and Mexico. Its producing assets include the Bolivar, Porco and Caballo Blanco Group mines in Bolivia, along with the Zimapan mine in Mexico.

In a production report released on January 30, the company disclosed consolidated silver production of 6.72 million ounces, marking a 4 percent decrease from the 7 million ounces produced in 2023. This decline was primarily attributed to a reduction in average grades across all its mining properties.

In addition to its producing assets, Santacruz also owns the greenfield Soracaya project. This 8,325-hectare land package is located in Potosi, Bolivia. According to an August 2024 technical report, the site hosts an inferred resource of 34.5 million ounces of silver derived from 4.14 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 260 g/t.

Shares in Santacruz reached a year-to-date high of C$0.59 on March 18.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Spearmint Significantly Increases Acreage on the Sisson North Tungsten Project in New Brunswick

Spearmint Resources Inc. (CSE: SPMT) (OTC Pink: SPMTF) (FSE: A2AHL5) (the ‘Company’ or ‘Spearmint’) wishes to announce that it has significantly increased the acreage of the ‘Sisson North Tungsten Project’ in New Brunswick directly bordering the Sisson Tungsten Mine. This new project now consists of approximately 4,890 contagious acres increased from 2,582 prospective for tungsten.

James Nelson, President of Spearmint stated, ‘There continues to be strong demand for commodities caught in the middle of global tariff battles—particularly tungsten. Considering these developments, we believe there will be increasing emphasis on securing domestic sources of strategic materials. With commodity prices remaining elevated and gold at all-time highs, we anticipate a much more buoyant junior mining market. With multiple active projects, Spearmint is well positioned to take advantage of these market conditions.’

​In April 2025, China’s export controls on tungsten continued to impact global supply chains and market dynamics. These measures, initiated in February, require exporters to obtain licenses for shipping tungsten and other critical minerals abroad, citing national security and non-proliferation concerns.​

The restrictions have led to increased prices and supply uncertainties, particularly affecting industries reliant on tungsten, such as defense and clean energy sectors. Analysts anticipate that Chinese-supplied tungsten may be scarce in the global markets.

In response to these challenges, companies and countries are exploring alternative sources and strategies to mitigate the impact of China’s export controls on tungsten.

Tungsten has always been a valuable material due to its unique properties, such as its extremely high melting point, strength, and durability. It is used in a wide variety of applications, including manufacturing hard metals, electronics, lightbulb filaments, and in military and aerospace technologies. However, China’s actions regarding tungsten have made it even more valuable for several reasons.

In short, the combination of China’s tightening control over tungsten production and the growing demand for this critical material has made tungsten even more valuable on the global market.

Qualified person for mining disclosure:

The technical contents of this release were reviewed and approved by Frank Bain, PGeo, a director of the company and qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101.

About Spearmint Resources Inc.

Spearmint’s projects include four projects in Clayton Valley, Nevada: the 1,136-acre McGee lithium clay deposit, which has a resource estimate of 1,369,000 indicated tonnes and 723,000 inferred tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) for a total of 2,092,000 tonnes of LCE, directly bordering Pure Energy Minerals & Century Lithium Corp.; the 280-acre Elon lithium brine project, which has access to some of the deepest parts of the only lithium brine basin in production in North America; the 124-acre Green Clay lithium project; and the 248-acre Clayton Ridge gold project, the 4,722-acre George Lake South Antimony Project in New Brunswick and the 4,890 acre Sisson North Tungsten Project.

This project was acquired via staking.

For a cautionary note and disclaimer on the crypto diversification, please refer to the news release dated November 12, 2024.

Contact Information
Tel: 1604646-6903
www.spearmintresources.ca

info@spearmintresources.ca

‘James Nelson’
President
Spearmint Resources Inc.

The CSE has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of the content of this release.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/248370

News Provided by Newsfile via QuoteMedia

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Week Ahead: NIFTY May Continue Staying Volatile; Focus On These Levels

The previous weekly note categorically mentioned that while the markets may continue to decline, the Indian equities are set to outperform its global peers relatively. In line with this analysis, the market saw wide swings owing to prevailing global uncertainties but continued showing remarkable resilience against other global indices. The volatility spiked; the India VIX surged sharply by 46.18% to 20.11 on a weekly basis. The markets witnessed significant volatility, and as a result, the Nifty oscillated in a wide 1180.25 range during the past week. Despite this, the headline index Nifty 50 closed with a negligible loss of just 75.90 points (-0.33%).

The coming week is also short; Monday is a trading holiday for Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti. From a technical perspective, a few of the significant things have happened. Although the Nifty formed a fresh swing low of 21743 while slipping below its previous low of 21964, the Index has successfully defended the important support level of 100-week MA that stands at 22152. This level remains a very important support level for the market in the near term. So long as the Nifty keeps its head above this point, it will stay in a larger range but would avert any major drawdown. A violation of this level will invite structural weakness in the markets. On the upper side, it faces stiff resistance between the 23300-23400 zone, which houses the 20-week MA.

With Monday being a holiday, Tuesday will see the markets opening after a gap of one day and adjusting to the global trade. The levels of 23000 and 23250 may act as potential resistance points; the supports come in much lower at 22400 and 22150.

The weekly RSI is at 44.28; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below its signal line; however, the narrowing Histogram hints at a likely positive crossover in the coming days.

The pattern analysis of the weekly Nifty chart reflects a strong rebound following a successful test of the 100-week moving average in early March, triggering a sharp 1,700-point rally. However, recent corrective moves driven by tariff-related concerns have led to the formation of a new swing low. Despite this, the Index has managed to hold above the crucial 100-week moving average level of 22,152 on a closing basis, which remains a key support zone. As long as the Nifty sustains above this level, the Index is likely to consolidate rather than witness any significant decline. However, a decisive breach below this average could open the door to a deeper corrective phase, which looks unlikely in the near future.

Overall, the Nifty is expected to encounter resistance around the 23,100 level and above, with volatility likely to remain a dominant feature in the near term. The Index may continue to trade within a broad range, making it prudent to adopt a cautious stance. Investors are advised to limit leveraged positions and prioritize protecting gains at higher levels. For fresh entries, the focus should remain on stocks exhibiting relative strength. Given the prevailing uncertainty, maintaining a conservative approach with modest exposure is recommended for the upcoming week. Risk management and selective participation will be essential to effectively navigate the anticipated market swings.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty Infrastructure, Metal, Banknifty, Services Sector, Consumption, Commodities, and Financial Services sector Indices inside the leading quadrant. Regardless of the direction the markets adopt, these groups are likely to post relative outperformance against the broader markets.

The Nifty Pharma Index is the only sector index present in the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Auto Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant, while the IT Index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant. Besides this, the Midcap 100, Media, and Realty indices are also inside this quadrant, but they are improving on their relative momentum.

The Nifty FMCG, Energy, and PSE Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are expected to improve their relative performance against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

New US Tariffs and Intensifying US–China Trade War: Economic Implications and Opportunities for India

In 2024-2025, the United States significantly escalated its trade conflict with China through new tariffs, including a substantial 100% tariff on electric vehicles and 50% on essential technologies like semiconductors and solar products. These measures amplify the existing trade tensions and represent a profound shift towards economic decoupling between the two largest global economies. This article evaluates both short-term and long-term economic impacts of these tariffs, analyzing their implications for global trade patterns and specifically examining India’s potential to capitalize on these shifting dynamics.

Read the full note here

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Earnings From These 3 Stocks Could Be Key

This week, we’re getting back to earnings season during the shortened four-day period.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) reports on the heels of JP Morgan’s solid results that saw its shares rally by 12.3% and recapture its 200-day moving average.

Watch the trading revenue numbers as added volatility should help their bottom line exceed expectations. The implied one-day move for earnings day is +/- 7.7% and, if the market is moving that morning, then expect more-than-normal movement.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF GS. If the stock rallies watch the $520 level. A break above this level could be a positive move.

Technically, shares have been put through the wringer. GS’s stock price has broken many key trendlines and support levels along the way. Maybe, just maybe, it has found a floor.

Like most stocks in this current environment, the swings have been wild. Lines in the sand have been drawn, and maybe GS can follow JPM’s lead as the charts are similar.

Things have been extremely volatile; the range between support and resistance is wide. The $440/$450 area looks to be a strong area of support for now. However, the trend has changed, and there has been much technical damage done. There are levels of resistance above, but it seems more likely that they may get tested before any retest of the lows.

On a rally, watch the $520 level, from which it broke down after breaching its 200-day moving average. If shares eclipse that, then it will likely experience a run back to its 200-day at $540. That would take the stock’s price back to its new downtrend line and should be met with much selling pressure.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has experienced some of the wildest swings since making a new high in early March. The stock price has fallen over 16%. Look for it to get back to its winning ways when the company reports on Tuesday.

Year-to-date, shares are up 5% and in one of the strongest sectors for those playing defense. Like all companies reporting, the focus will be on management’s commentary on future earnings guidance and potential impacts from global economic conditions.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF JNJ. The stock price could see more downside, or it could move up to its 200-day moving average.Technically, shares are in a bit of a no-man’s land. Price action has been streaky and now they report in the middle of this recent wide range.

The bear case is that shares have yet to reach oversold levels and test major support. They came close, but didn’t get below $140. So more of a downside could be reached before jumping into the stock.

The bull case, at a minimum, is a reversion back to the 200-day moving average, just above current levels. The best case is that it has little tariff exposure, making it a safer haven in tough times and may run back towards old highs.

Overall, outside a safe 3.3% dividend, the case to jump in for a trade is tough to make given its recent price action.

Netflix (NFLX) has given back all its gains from its last earnings cycle and hopes it can regain those levels when it reports on Thursday.

Shares are seen as a safer haven in this tariff war environment, but have not been immune to the wild market swings we have been seeing. NFLX has continued to put up solid numbers and fared better than most growth stocks during this time.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NFLX. A head and shoulders top, bullish divergence in the RSI, and bullish MACD crossover lean toward a bullish move.

Technically, there are several more positives than negatives. NFLX’s stock price has formed a head-and-shoulders top, but failed to break its neckline at the $820 level and bounced. That was one positive development, but the pattern still hangs over the stock for now.

Secondly, there’s a bullish divergence in its relative strength index (RSI) when you compare it to recent price action. As price made new lows, the RSI did not. That indicates something has changed — this recent sell-off was not as strong as its predecessor and that a reversal may be coming.

Lastly, we may be experiencing a bullish crossover in its moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). While we always want confirmation, sometimes anticipating the move may be worth the risk. When tied into the above two factors, I believe it is.

The stock has a history of gaps after earnings, so watch that gap and price action immediately afterward. If NFLX experiences a gap higher and above the 50-day moving average, you can use that as a stop to manage risk. To the downside, watch to see if the $820 level holds. If it doesn’t, there could be an accelerated move to the downside.

Investors on the Move: A Visual Guide to the Stock Market

Another interesting week in the stock market comes to an end.

The past few days were flooded with the twists and turns of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which were later put on a 90-day pause except for China, which got hit with higher tariffs.

Then came China’s retaliation, which stirred the pot even more. Where tariffs between the two countries will end up is anyone’s guess, but all it’s doing now is adding to even more uncertainty.

The wild swings that we are seeing in the stock market’s price action make it a challenging environment for investors and traders. And with consumer confidence weakening, investors are getting nervous and confused. When the stock market environment is dominated by wild swings based on news headlines, it makes analyzing price charts more difficult. Many charts are technically broken down, and indicators tend to be more skewed due to the recent wide-ranging days.

The daily chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is a great example of how the crazy wild swings of the last six days aren’t doing much to help determine trend direction.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF SPY. The last six trading days have been erratic to say the least. It makes it impossible to determine whether the bulls or bears are in control. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The last six candlestick bars display erratic movement with wide range days. Note the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is trending downward and getting close to the 200-day SMA. While the overall trend is pointing lower, it’s difficult to tell if SPY will move lower or reverse.

You’re better off looking at a longer-term chart, such as a weekly or monthly one, to get a sense of the overall trend direction. The weekly chart of the SPY is less erratic and restores faith in the technical analysis.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF SPY. This is much calmer and clearly shows the longer-term trend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Even though it’s clear that SPY has broken below its 40-week SMA, it’s still above its 150-week, which is a ray of hope. Let’s see where it ends up next week. The more concerning point is that the range of the last two bars is the widest it has been in the last five years.

Watch Bonds

You can’t get past this week’s market action without noticing bonds. With higher tariffs, you’d expect yields to fall, but we’re not seeing that happen. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of 4.59% on Friday and the 30-year went as high as 4.99%. Although yields pulled back, they are still relatively high.

Bond prices came back a bit after hitting a low that almost coincided with its January low (red dashed line). See the chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) below.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF TLT. Note the steep decline in the last six bars. Although bond prices came back on Friday, there’s no knowing what will happen next week. Watch this chart closely. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The big question is if Friday’s upside move is enough to reverse the trend in bond prices. Momentum indicators are still weak and trending to the downside, and, from a technical perspective, it’ll take a lot for bond prices to trend higher.

Falling bond prices don’t bode well for investors. Typically, when equities fall, bond prices rise. Yet we’re seeing the opposite occurring. That investors are selling US bonds and looking at alternative safe-havens worries Wall Street. The rise in bond prices also makes the White House nervous, and it puts the Federal Reserve in a tight spot.

Tariffs can send inflation higher and, generally, an inflationary environment does not support interest rate cuts. But if the US finds itself in a position where inflation is rising and economic growth is slowing, the Fed may have to cut rates.

Who knows what we will hear next week? Remember, this is a headline-driven market, and any news can send values moving drastically in either direction. On Friday afternoon, stocks reversed on the heels of a news release from the White House stating that a deal with China could be in the works. You can’t rule out a weekend risk.

The Dollar Weakens

Another unusual move is the weakening of the US dollar. Increasing tariffs should strengthen the US dollar. Instead, the dollar is weakening. The daily chart of Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) shows the ETF is trading well below its 200-day SMA (red line).

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF UUP. The ETF is trading below its 200-day SMA. Will it hit its 52-week low? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The US dollar is showing no signs of a turnaround in the US dollar. The euro, British pound, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen are strengthening against the dollar. Pull up the charts of  $EURUSD, $GDPUSD, $USDSCHF, and $USDJPY on the StockCharts platform and follow the currency markets. Or head over to the revised Market Summary page, scroll down to the Other Assets panel, and click the Currencies tab. you’ll see all the currency pairs listed.

The Bottom Line

Downtrends in equities, US bond prices, and the US dollar send a message that investors are selling US assets. Where are they parking their cash? Gold is one place. Interest in gold has gone through the roof with gold prices hitting a new all-time high on Friday. When things are as uncertain as they are now, it’s time to step back and observe the macro landscape. That means viewing long-term equity charts, bonds, and currencies. Bonds are critical in this landscape. They give a big picture of the overall strength of the US economy.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 5.70% on the week, at 5363.36, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 4.95% on the week at 40,212.71; Nasdaq Composite down 7.29% on the week at 16,724.46
  • $VIX down 17.10% on the week, closing at 37.56.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Information Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Real Estate
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (AU); Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI); RocketLab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings from Bank of America (BAC), United Airlines (UAL), Citigroup (C); Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and many more
  • March export and import prices
  • March Retail Sales
  • March Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production
  • March Housing Starts
  • Several Fed speeches

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.