Trump policies threaten US EV growth

Speaking about freshly inaugurated US President Donald Trump, Alavi-Gunn underscored that US EV proliferation could be hampered by the new administration. Trump could ease EV compliance rules, reduce subsidies and impose tariffs on Chinese batteries and Mexican auto imports, making EVs less competitive.

As a result, US plug-in vehicle sales could drop from 30 percent to 20 percent penetration, with hybrids gaining market share. This shift could reduce US battery demand by 20 percent.

However, outside the US the global EV outlook remains largely unchanged.

“Overall, we see very strong growth in EVs going forward,” Alavi-Gunn said, using a chart to illustrate her point. “Plug ins are growing at nearly 10 percent a year. Hybrids are growing at about 6 percent a year.”

While this steady increase in EV purchases is the largest contributing factor for the battery metals sector, each metal also has other end-use segments that offer support.

“We’re seeing very strong demand growth across all of the battery metals,” the Wood Mackenzie analyst noted. “Lithium, obviously, is just crazy, but the other battery metals are still growing pretty strong.”

IRA decisions could impact graphite supply

Although Trump’s decisions around the Inflation Reduction Act’s EV incentives — in particular the 30D tax credit for new clean vehicles — are expected to have little impact on global battery demand tallies, Alavi-Gunn noted that the graphite market could be impacted by the new administration’s policies.

“We think the US could have quite an impact if they keep the 30D credit in place, but they bring forward graphite inclusion,” she said. She went on to explain that graphite is a crucial component for batteries, with China dominating its supply chain. Currently US sourcing rules don’t require graphite to come from allied countries until 2027.

However, if Trump moves that deadline up, far fewer EVs will qualify for tax credits due to limited compliant supply.

As Alavi-Gunn pointed out, long-term demand for battery metals is bullish, despite a current glut in key markets.

The lithium and nickel markets are oversupplied, driven by surging production in China and Indonesia. This excess has kept prices low, but demand is expected to outpace supply by the 2030s, triggering shortages and price increases.

Cobalt also faces a similar long-term oversupply, though recycling economics could be a risk.

To fulfill the demand growth that Wood Mackenzie is projecting, Alavi-Gunn noted that billions of dollars in new investment will be required, particularly for lithium. She suggested that major mining firms, traditionally focused on iron ore and coal, may need to diversify into battery metals as these legacy commodities shrink in market size.

While lithium and nickel mines generate slightly less revenue than copper, they remain attractive investment opportunities, especially for companies looking to future-proof their portfolios.

This can be achieved through M&A or the development of new greenfield assets.

As Alavi-Gunn explained, lithium and copper assets command high premiums, making new development more cost effective, while nickel is cheaper to acquire than build.

However, greenfield projects come with risks like permitting delays.

She also noted that miners face competing demands for capital, such as shareholder returns, sustainability and diversification. While battery metals offer long-term potential, firms must act now to avoid future shortages.

The current downturn presents a countercyclical investment opportunity ahead of expected supply deficits and price surges in the 2030s, she said.

Canada’s pivotal place in global supply chains

Following Alavi-Gunn’s presentation, Emil Kalinowski, director of metals market research at Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX:WPM,NYSE:WPM), took to the stage.

His 20 minute presentation started with a brief overview of the geopolitical and economic forces shaping metals markets, highlighting a disconnect between analyst forecasts and historical trends.

As Kalinowski explained, critical and in-demand resources have become a key front in geopolitical tensions, alongside artificial intelligence, space and strategic waterways like the Black and Red seas.

“The metals and mining space has become a key battleground for the great powers in the world,” he said.

As metal supply chains become increasingly politicized, he believes Canada may be the most influential nation.

“Canada, in my mind, is one of the leaders on deciding who, what and where deals can take place,’ Kalinowski said. ‘With respect to national security and economic security, logistics, supply chains — Australia is leading the way when it comes to financing projects, but Canada is getting involved on a geopolitical basis very heavily.”

Although Kalinowski’s comments came the day after Trump’s inauguration, they appear to have been prophetic. Since taking office, the president has made numerous comments about the US absorbing Canada as the 51st state.

Trump has cited poor trade negotiations and subsidies as his reasons, but many have questioned the motives behind the proposal, with some speculating that the president would like to access Canada’s mineral wealth.

More recently, the Trump administration has requested US$500 billion in rare earths from Ukraine.

Analyst price predictions clash with supply realities

Switching his focus to gold, Kalinowski noted that despite bullish sentiment in the market and dramatic price increases for the precious metal, some analysts are making bearish projections.

“They are forecasting that gold prices will fall,” he told the audience.

“This is completely off the charts compared to the market and to history. I think they’re wrong.”

According to Kalinowski, analyst consensus predictions for gold don’t align with supply projections.

Forecasts suggest a slight annual decline in supply through 2030 — roughly 1 percent per year — putting future supply 2 to 3 percent below historical trends dating back to the Cold War, he explained.

Alternative supply sources like scrap and recycling are also shrinking.

Unlike past decades, when investors and central banks sold off gold, projections for 2030 show these entities will be accumulating instead, reducing available supply and challenging traditional market assumptions.

“So supply is not really explaining why analysts are so bearish,” he said. “Might it be demand? I don’t think so.”

In fact, global gold demand surged to an all-time high of 4,974 metric tons in 2024, fueled by strong central bank purchases and rising investment interest, according to the World Gold Council. The combination of record prices and high volumes pushed the total market value of demand to a historic US$382 billion.

Ultimately, Kalinowski attributed analysts’ bearish stance on the gold price to their failure to fully account for the supply constraints, the nuanced nature of gold demand and the geopolitical factors that could drive increased buying.

Diverging paths for silver, platinum and palladium

For sister metal silver, the consensus was more optimistic, with analysts predicting long-term price growth.

As Kalinowski pointed out, historical trends suggest the silver price rises over any six year period, but forecasting remains complex. Unlike gold, silver lacks a single price-driving factor, earning its reputation as the “devil’s metal.”

Silver’s extreme financialization — where paper trades vastly outsize physical supply — makes short-term price moves unpredictable. However, long-term demand shifts are clear. Industrial use, especially in solar panels, is set to grow, while speculative demand is expected to decline — though its correlation to gold raises doubts.

Kalinowski added that a key geopolitical wildcard is government stockpiling of silver. Russia recently began adding silver to its reserves, sparking speculation that other nations may follow.

Even a tiny shift in global FOREX reserves into silver could absorb an entire year’s supply.

For Kalinowski, that raises the question: “Could silver become a strategic asset alongside gold?”

He spent the remainder of his time highlighting the seismic shifts occurring in the platinum and palladium markets. With so many supportive fundamentals, analysts are bullish on platinum long term, and the numbers support it.

While total mine supply is expected remain stable, platinum demand is being reshaped, moving away from internal combustion engines and into the hydrogen economy. According to Kalinowski, this transition is expected to drive ongoing supply deficits, with platinum stores reaching a 47 year low.

Palladium, on the other hand, faces a different story. While analysts remain optimistic in the short term, long-term fundamentals for the metal look shaky. A flood of recycled palladium from scrapped gasoline-powered cars — peaking in the mid-2030s — will add massive supply, just as demand declines by 15 percent.

Unlike platinum, palladium has no clear role in the energy transition, raising price concerns long term.

“There is no hydrogen rescue coming for the palladium market; (there is also a) tremendous amount of supply, falling demand (and) price (is) very concerning,” Kalinowski said.

With supply tightening for one and surging for the other, the two metals appear to be on diverging paths — platinum poised for strength, palladium facing pressure.

1. Apple debuts new iPhone 16e with advanced features

Apple rolled out a new device to the iPhone 16 lineup on Wednesday (February 19), expanding its offerings with a budget-friendly option that doesn’t compromise on advanced functionality.

The more affordable iPhone 16e comes equipped with an advanced 2-in-1 camera system, Apple’s A18 chip — replacing the A17 chip found in iPhone 15 models — to enable Apple Intelligence. It also comes with the company’s new C1 modem, the first cellular modem designed entirely in-house, replacing Qualcomm’s (NASDAQ:QCOM) Snapdragon X70.

This move towards in-house components is expected to continue, with Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicting the company will also replace Broadcom’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) Wi-Fi chips with its own, starting with the iPhone 17 series.

According to Cult of Mac, an online publication that focuses on Apple news and product reviews, the C1 modem “integrates 4G, 5G, satellite and GPS radios in one chip”, representing a “brand-new direction for Apple silicon, alongside the company’s processors and other wireless chips.”

The modem helps enable the phone’s satellite features, which allow for emergency communication and location tracking even when outside cellular and Wi-Fi coverage. It also helps extend the phone’s battery life.

Pre-orders began on Friday (February 21) and the phones will be available for purchase next week.

Later, Apple wrapped up the week by announcing on Friday that it would include Apple Intelligence in visionsOS 2.4, the immersive Apple Vision Pro platform. The update will enable tools such as text composition from ChatGPT and an Image Playground where users can create new images using AI. The changes are set to take place for English users in April, with features for additional languages rolling out gradually throughout the year.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg sources recently revealedthat the company has run into engineering problems and bugs that may delay the release of Apple’s promised overhaul of its digital assistant Siri, which was slated for April.

Sources claim that the update could now come in May or later.

The company also faces intensifying rivalry with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), particularly in the emerging field of humanoid robots, as detailed in this piece from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman.

2. Intel surges on acquisition rumors, then dips

Shares of Intel opened over 10 percent higher on Tuesday (February 18) after the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that rival chipmakers Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) (NYSE:TSMC) and Broadcom were both in talks to acquire different divisions of the company. According to the report, Broadcom is seeking Intel’s chip-design business, while TSMC is looking to acquire its chip-manufacturing unit.

Separately, Bloomberg reported on Monday (February 17) that Silver Lake Management was in talks to acquire a majority stake in Intel’s programmable chips unit, Altera, continuing the upward momentum.

The stock reached US$27.39 by the closing bell on Tuesday, nearly 14 percent higher than the closing price the previous Friday.

However, the majority of the company’s gains were promptly reversed on Wednesday after analysts voiced concerns over Intels’ potential break up and possible barriers to acquisition, such as different manufacturing processes. Regulatory scrutiny was also cited as a potential obstacle to any deal between Intel and TSMC.

And the Trump administration ‘could be wary of a foreign entity completely taking over an iconic US-firm,’ Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya wrote in a note to investors Tuesday, despite reports suggesting that the Taiwanese firm was considering the deal at the request of the Trump administration.

3. Ilya Sutskever’s SSI secures major investment

On Monday, Bloomberg disclosed a US$1 billion deal for OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever’s start-up, Safe Superintelligence (SSI). Sutskever was formerly a chief scientist at OpenAI before leaving the company in May 2024.

Sutskever was a central figure in an attempt to remove OpenAI CEO Sam Altman from the company in November 2023; however, just days later Sutskever signed a letter demanding Altman’s return and said he regretted his participation.

He started SSI in June 2024, shortly after leaving OpenAI. The company focuses on building advanced artificial intelligence technology with safety features and has attracted significant interest from investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and DST Global, despite not yet generating revenue.

The latest funding round is led by venture capitalists at San Francisco-based firm Greenoaks Capital Partners, who have committed US$500 million, according to the report. Sources say the company is in talks to raise more than US$1 billion, potentially valuing the company at US$30 billion.

While Reuters provided details of the deal earlier in February, sources had previously valued the company at US$20 billion, a significant increase from its US$5 billion valuation following a funding round in September 2024.

Also this week, Mira Murati, another former OpenAI employee who previously served as the company’s chief technology officer, announced the name of her new venture, Thinking Machines Labs, via a blog post on Tuesday. Murati resigned from OpenAI in September 2024 after the company agreed to change its corporate structure, handing control to its for-profit arm as a stipulation of a US$6.6 billion funding round.

4. Palantir faces dual challenges

Shares of software company Palantir plunged by over 21 percent this week after Benzinga and other media outlets reported a regulatory disclosure on Wednesday, revealing CEO Alex Karp’s plan to sell nearly 10 million shares.

Later on Wednesday, the Pentagon announced it would cut roughly US$50 billion from its budget after it was ordered to reduce spending by 8 percent every year for the next five years last Friday by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Cuts are likely to affect staffing as well as some weapons programs, according to NPR.

However, certain areas, such as border defense and spending on drones and submarines, will likely be exempt from the cuts or even receive increased funding.

“President Trump’s charge to the Department of Defense is clear: to achieve peace through strength,” wrote Robert G. Salesses, a senior Pentagon official, in a press release. “We will do this by putting forward budgets that revive the warrior ethos, rebuild our military, and reestablish deterrence.”

Palantir is a well-established defense contractor that works extensively with the US military. In December 2024, the company secured a US$401 million follow-on contract with the US Army to continue its work on the Vantage platform, an AI-powered data analysis tool used to improve decision-making and readiness. Its stock has seen remarkable growth, increasing by nearly 350 percent compared to its value a year ago.

5. Microsoft unveils new quantum chip

On Wednesday Microsoft unveiled its newest innovation, a quantum computing chip that the company claims can solve meaningful, industrial-scale problems in years, not decades.

Named Majorana 1, this chip stands apart from other quantum computing approaches due to its unique particles, which offer increased resilience against errors. Many qubits are incredibly sensitive to their environment, and tiny disturbances can cause them to lose their quantum information, resulting in computing errors.

Majorana 1 tackles this challenge with its unique architecture, where quantum information is distributed and protected, making it less susceptible to environmental disturbances and resulting in greater stability.

Microsoft refers to Majorana’s architecture as “topological,” which basically means the quantum information is encoded robustly, tied to the overall state of the system rather than individual parts.

This protection comes from the unique nature of the particles themselves: they’re Majorana particles, which are their own antiparticles—a very unusual property that contributes to their stability.

However, some researchers have cast doubt on whether Microsoft’s chips are capable of such stability.

Steven Simon, a theoretical physicist at the University of Oxford, UK, who was results at its research center in Santa Barbara, told Nature: “Would I bet my life that they’re seeing what they think they’re seeing? No, but it looks pretty good.”

He also said that there was no way to know from the experiment whether Microsoft had created qubits made of topological states. Notably, Microsoft previously claimed it had accomplished Majorana states in 2018, but later retracted its assertion in 2021 after further testing.

Still, Microsoft shares saw a boost after the press release, closing up 1.5 percent higher on Wednesday afternoon.

Bullet briefing — Barrick, Mali resolve disupte, Anglo, Codelco to team up

Barrick, Mali set to resolve dispute

Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX,NYSE:ABX) has reportedly signed a US$438 million deal that would end a dispute over its mining assets in Mali.

According to Reuters, the Mark Bristow-led company is now waiting for Mali’s government to issue formal approval. At the time of this recording the approval had not yet come, but it’s possible it will have arrived by the time this video is posted.

The dispute between Barrick and Mali has been ongoing for nearly two years, and in November resulted in the suspension of Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto operation.

Anglo, Codelco to team up in Chile

Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) and Chilean state-owned miner Codelco have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly operate their adjacent copper mines in the country, saying it will boost copper output with little additional capital.

Their joint release states that the arrangement will increase production of the red metal by an average of nearly 120,000 metric tons per year. In total, Anglo and Codelco anticipate generating further value of at least US$5 billion before tax.

The companies expect to enter definitive agreements in the second half of 2025.

On a similar note, Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TSX:TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) Chief Executive Jonathan Price said in a post-earnings conference call that his company is open to collaborating with Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) on copper in Chile.

“We do recognize the potential value of some form of tie up between those two operations. And it’s something that we’ve done a good deal of work on to understand the various ways in which that value could be unlocked’ — Jonathan Price, Teck Resources

Glencore made a bid for Teck in 2023, but ultimately only acquired the company’s coal business.

Price said he sees ‘potential value’ in a tie up between Teck’s QB2 mine and Glencore’s Collahuasi mine, but couldn’t share further details on plans.

Markets and commodities react

US equity markets were broadly down this week, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) losing 1.67 percent to end Friday (February 21) at 6,013.12 and the Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) falling 1.93 percent to 21,614.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) sank the furthest, down 2.89 percent to 43.428.03.

In Canada, markets were also in decline. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) fell 2.48 percent on the week to close at 634.69 on Friday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) posted a 2.15 percent loss to hit 25,147.03 and the CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) dropped 2.59 percent to 132.46.

After hitting new all-time highs on Wednesday, the gold price remained in record territory on Friday, seeing a 1.78 percent increase on the week to close at US$2,934.24 per ounce at 4:00 p.m. EST. Silver also saw gains this week, moving up 1.22 percent to US$32.52.

In base metals, the copper price was in decline this week, shedding 2.13 percent throughout the week to close at US$4.59 per pound on the COMEX. Meanwhile, the S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) was flat, shedding 0.08 percent to close at 569.41.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

So how did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

We break down this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Data for this article was retrieved at 3:00 p.m. EST on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Companies within the non-energy minerals and energy minerals sectors were considered.

2. Kapa Gold (TSXV:KAPA)

Weekly gain: 32 percent
Market cap: C$11.58 million
Share price: C$0.165

Kapa gold is an exploration company focused on advancing the past-producing Blackhawk mine in San Bernardino County, California.

The project site is composed of seven patented and 178 contiguous federal lode claims covering 1,496.2 hectares. The property hosts multiple mineralized zones with previous exploration work revealing deposits with high grade gold, silver, lead and zinc. Historic production has seen grading from ramps and underground mines averaging 10 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold.

Kapa has not released news since January 7, when it announced that it was advancing baseline studies and surface exploration at Blackhawk. The company said the work was being conducted in preparation for a 2025 drill program, with data gathered being used to identify drill targets.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.