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Week Ahead: RRG Indicates Sector Shifts; NIFTY Deals With These Crucial Levels

Following a strong move the week before, the markets took on a more consolidatory look over the past five sessions. Following ranged moves, the Nifty closed the week on just a modestly positive note. From a technical standpoint, the Nifty tested a few important levels on both daily and weekly charts. However, the trading range narrowed. The Index oscillated in a 517.60-point range over the past week. The volatility surged again; the India VIX spiked 10.93% to 17.16. The headline index went on to close with a modest weekly gain of 187.70 points (+0.79%).

The coming week is shortened, with Thursday being a trading holiday due to Maharashtra Day. We could write about more than one thing that the markets could be worried about over the coming days. It could be the lowered growth forecasts by the IMF that include India and other economies; it could also be the heightened possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. However, all that said, the markets are also at a crucial technical juncture. The Nifty has closed just at the 200-DMA placed at 24050. Besides this, Index has also defended the 50-week MA at 23925. This makes the 23,900-24,050 zone a crucial support area for the Nifty. The consolidation is imminent as the Nifty has rebounded over 11% from its April 07 lows, and minor corrective retracements cannot be ruled out. However, if 23900 is breached, the markets may see some extended retracements.

The weekly RSI is at 55.46; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above its signal line. A candle resembling a Shooting Star has emerged, increasing the likelihood of consolidation. Importantly, any candle formation should not be traded in isolation and must be used in conjunction with the overall technical setup.

The pattern analysis shows that the Nifty has defended the 50-week MA placed at 23925. The Index has also tested a rising trendline resistance; it violated this trendline support on its way down, and now this is expected to act as resistance. Overall, the zone of 24050-23900 is a crucial support zone for Nifty. If the level of 23900 is violated, it can lead to incremental weakness.

Overall, the technical structure of the market suggests that it is time for one to focus more on protecting gains at higher levels. While there could be some reactions by the markets due to external factors, the underlying buoyancy stays intact. The only thing to be cautious about is the natural corrective retracements that the market may experience following the steep upward move that has taken place. Investors must keep fresh purchases should be kept in low-beta stocks that have strong relative strength. With sector rotation visible, a cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty PSU Bank Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Consumption, Commodities, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Metal, and Nifty Bank Indices are also inside the leading quadrant. While the weakening of Relative Momentum is seen in the Metal and Financial Services Index, they are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant.

The Midcap 100 and the Realty Index are showing strong improvement in their Relative Momentum while staying inside the lagging quadrant. The IT and the Auto Index continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant.

The Media Index has rolled inside the Improving quadrant, indicating a likely beginning of its phase of relative outperformance. The Nifty PSE, Energy, and FMCG Indices are also inside the improving quadrant.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Zweig Breadth Thrust Dominates the Headlines – But What about an Exit Strategy?

The Zweig Breadth Thrust for the S&P 1500 triggered on Thursday as stocks surged last week. In poker terms, this thrust signals an abrupt participation shift as stocks move from folding to all-in within ten days. A bullish thrust signal is only part of the puzzle. How do we know when this signal fails? Today’s report will look at the ZBT signal in the S&P 1500 and offer an exit strategy. Stick around to the end for an offer to access a fully quantified strategy based on the Zweig Breadth Thrust.

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TrendInvestorPro subscribers have access to three timely reports. The first report/video explains the mechanics of the original NYSE-based Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator and then shows a modern version using S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent. Second, we also presented a trading strategy using ZBT signals for entry and another indicator for exits. The third report/video covers the setups and thrust signals for the percent above SMA indicators. Some of these indicators also triggered this week, but not all. Click here to take a trial and get full access.

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ZBT Triggers for S&P 1500, but Not S&P 500

The first chart shows the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggering bullish as it moved from below -20% to above +23% within ten trading days (blue line). This thrust signal means S&P 1500 advance-decline breadth became oversold with strong selling pressure and then recovered in dramatic fashion with a surge in upside participation. Moreover, this shift occurred within a 10 day window. This reversal of fortune was both sudden and sharp.

Note that the Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered an epic signal in November 2023, and we were on it. See this report (11-November-2023) for details on the original NYSE-based Zweig Breadth Thrust. See this report (18-November-2023) for details on using S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent to create a Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator.  

S&P 500 ZBT Falls Short

The ZBT indicator for the S&P 500 did not trigger. The indicator was below -20% on April 8th and did not make it back above +23% within the 10 day window. In fact, the indicator did not make it back above +23% this week. This shows less upside participation within the S&P 500, and more upside participation within the S&P 1500. Small and mid cap breadth outperformed large-cap breadth this week.

Where’s the Exit?

The Zweig Breadth Thrust is only used for bullish signals, which means chartists must find another indicator to signal a failed thrust. As its name implies, a thrust is a strong upward move that is powerful enough to foreshadow an extended advance. The Zweig Breadth Thrust in November 2023 provides a classic example as SPY continued higher, never looking back. The blue line shows when both the S&P 1500 and S&P 500 ZBT indicators triggered in early November.

Chartists looking for an exit strategy can consider prior support levels based on reaction lows (troughs). The horizontal blue lines show these support levels, starting with the late October 2023 low. SPY forged a reaction low in January 2025, hit a new high in February and then broke support to trigger an exit. Current support levels are based on the April lows.

Chartists looking for a more dynamic approach can consider a trend-following indicator, which we will explore next (subscribers). This strategy is fully disclosed and quantified with backtest results. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access! 

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Crypto Market Recap: $TRUMP Token Soars as President Extends Exclusive Invitation

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Wednesday (April 23) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$93,529.14 as markets closed for the day, up 2.2 percent in 24 hours. The day’s range has seen a low of US$92,078.75 and a high of US$94,122.31.

Bitcoin performance, April 23, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Fueledby the re-entry of institutional investment, the crypto markets appear to be headed towards a robust recovery; however, the long-term trajectory remains to be seen.

Ethereum (ETH) ended the day at US$1,785.14, a 5.2 percent increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday low of US$1,767.67 and a high of US$1,815.24.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) ended the day valued at US$150.05, up four percent over 24 hours. SOL experienced a low of US$149.31 and peaked at $153.47.
  • XRP traded at US$2.22, reflecting a three percent increase over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday low of US$2.20 and reached its highest point at US$2.29.
  • Sui (SUI) was priced at US$2.98, showing an increaseof 21 percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily low of US$2.89 and a high of US$3.06.
  • Cardano (ADA) was trading at US$0.6981, up 6.3 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest price on Wednesday was US$0.6873, with a high of US$0.7138.

Today’s crypto news to know

Bitcoin becomes fifth largest global asset, overtakes Google

Bitcoin has climbed to a market capitalization of US$1.86 trillion, overtaking Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) to become the world’s fifth-largest asset by market value. The price of Bitcoin surged past US$94,000, helped by easing trade tensions between the US and China and renewed bullish sentiment across tech and risk-on assets.

This marks a symbolic milestone for the cryptocurrency, which has now outpaced several of the world’s most valuable tech giants. Analysts point to Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with macroeconomic tailwinds — such as falling bond yields and speculative interest in risk assets — as drivers of the recent price action.

Its breakout relative to the Nasdaq also suggests growing investor confidence in crypto as a parallel to tech. If Bitcoin maintains this trajectory, some believe it could soon challenge silver’s position as the fourth-largest global asset.

Brandon Lutnick forms new Bitcoin investment vehicle

Brandon Lutnick, son of Howard Lutnick, US secretary of commerce and former Cantor Fitzgerald chair, will launch a listed Bitcoin investment vehicle through a reverse merger with Cantor Equity Partners, a special purpose acquisition company. This is according to a Tuesday (April 22) report from the Financial Times.

The newly established entity, purportedly named Twenty One Capital, will be led by co-founder Jack Mallers, CEO of Bitcoin-focused payments app Strike, and majority owned by Tether (USDT) and cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex. SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) will also own a ‘significant minority’ stake.

Financial Times sources said Tether will contribute at least US$1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin.

The company will also raise US$385 million through a convertible bond and US$200 million via a private equity placement, which it will use to acquire more Bitcoin. Eventually, SoftBank, Tether and Bitfinex’s investments will be converted from Bitcoin into shares in Twenty One Capital, with a price of US$13 per share for the private placement and US$10 per share for the convertible bond.

According to the report, Twenty One Capital will launch with 42,000 BTC, making it the world’s third-largest Bitcoin reserve. “With a visionary leader at the helm and backing from two renowned industry leaders, Twenty One is designed to help investors capture value from Bitcoin’s growing global demand and increasing institutional adoption,” Lutnick said in a press release on Wednesday. The deal values the new company at US$3.6 billion based on an approximate US$85,000 Bitcoin valuation. As of writing, Bitcoin is valued at US$93,808.31.

Trump backs crypto regulation, Trump Media eyes retail crypto products

During a public appearance, US President Donald Trump called for regulatory certainty in the crypto industry and vowed to provide ‘clear rules of the road’ for digital asset innovation.

His statement coincided with Trump Media & Technology Group’s announcement that it will partner with Crypto.com and Yorkville America Digital to launch retail investment products, including crypto-focused ETFs aligned with Trump’s “America First” platform. The planned offerings aim to capitalize on the president’s growing presence in the digital asset space following prior ventures like Trump NFTs and crypto-affiliated partnerships.

While no official ETF filings have been submitted yet, the initiative signals Trump’s commitment to making crypto a policy priority as part of his economic strategy.

Trump to host dinner for $TRUMP token holders

Trump will host a dinner for the top 220 holders of his $TRUMP token in Washington, DC, on May 22.

News of the event sent $TRUMP’s valuation up by over 55 percent in under an hour. $TRUMP reached US$14.44 at around midday on Wednesday, its highest valuation since mid-February. As of writing, $TRUMP is valued at US$13.46.

Top token holders are required to link their wallets for holding verification. The top 25 holders will gather for a private reception with the president before dinner.

Around 40 million $TRUMP tokens, or roughly 20 percent of the tokens’ circulating supply, were unlocked on April 17; they were valued at slightly above US$300 million at the time.

$TRUMP reached an all-time high of US$75.35 on January 19, according to data from CoinMarket Cap. This was followed by an abrupt reversal and steady decline in Q1 to valuations between US$9 to US$7 in April.

Tesla reports US$951 million in Bitcoin holdings despite earnings miss

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) revealed it continues to hold $951 million worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, despite posting weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue of US$19.34 billion.

The automaker’s Bitcoin holdings, totaling 11,509 BTC, remained unchanged during the quarter, with no buy or sell activity recorded. This comes as Bitcoin’s price dipped from late December highs, impacting Tesla’s valuation of its digital asset portfolio under the new Financial Accounting Standards Board rules.

These rules now require corporations to mark digital assets to market on a quarterly basis, increasing transparency but also exposing earnings to crypto market volatility. Tesla’s crypto exposure, while relatively small compared to its core business, still makes it one of the top public holders of Bitcoin globally.

Riot Platforms secures US$100 million credit facility backed by Bitcoin

Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) secured a US$100 million credit facility from Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) on Wednesday using a massive Bitcoin stockpile as collateral.

Data from Bitcoin Treasuries indicates that Riot holds 19,223 BTC valued at approximately US$1.8 billion, making the company the third-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury behind Michael Saylor’s Strategy and MARA Holdings.

“Riot has entered into its first bitcoin-backed facility, which provides us with non-dilutive funding at an attractive cost of financing,” said Jason Les, CEO of Riot, in a press release. “This credit facility is a key part of our efforts to diversify sources of financing to support our operations and strategic growth initiatives, with a view towards long-term stockholder value creation.”

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Crypto Market Recap: ARK Invest Calls for Bitcoin Price of US$2.4 Million by 2030

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Friday (April 25) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$95,030.17 as markets closed for the day, up 1.8 percent in 24 hours. The day’s range has seen a low of US$94,367.25 and a high of US$95,563.75.

Bitcoin performance, April 25, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

As the crypto market stages its comeback after weeks below its key resistance level, ARK Invest increased its most optimistic Bitcoin price forecast for 2030 from US$1.5 million to US$2.4 million. The firm attributes this upward revision to growing interest from institutional investors and Bitcoin’s expanding role as ‘digital gold.’ Cointelegraph’s market analysis cites five technical indicators pointing to valuations above US$100,000 by May.

Ethereum (ETH) ended the day at US$1,796.65, a two percent increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday low of US$1,772.18 and a high of US$1,819.79.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) ended the day valued at US$151.24, down 0.1 percent over 24 hours. SOL experienced a low of US$150.90 and peaked at $155.18.
  • XRP traded at US$2.19, reflecting a 0.6 percent decrease over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday low of US$2.19 and reached its highest point at US$2.22.
  • Sui (SUI), this week’s outperformer, was priced at US$3.60, showing an increaseof 8.8 percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily low of US$3.56 and a high of US$3.73. Sui is up by over 67 percent for the week.
  • Cardano (ADA) was trading at US$0.7127, down 1.7 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest price on Friday was US$0.7099, with a high of US$0.7268.

Today’s crypto news to know

ARK Invest sees Bitcoin hitting US$2.4 million by 2030

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has revised its already-optimistic bitcoin forecast, now projecting the asset could reach as high as US$2.4 million by 2030 in its most bullish scenario.

The firm’s April 24 report outlines three trajectories: a bear case of US$300,000, a base case of US$710,000, and a sky-high scenario that factors in growing institutional allocations and rapid expansion of on-chain financial services.

The US$2.4 million target assumes bitcoin captures 6.5 percent of the US$200 trillion global investable asset pool, with sustained 60 percent annual growth in BTC-driven financial infrastructure. National reserves, corporate treasuries, and rising adoption in emerging markets also play critical roles in the model, but ARK identifies institutional capital as the most transformative force.

While skeptics still cite volatility and regulatory uncertainty, ARK argues that BTC’s asymmetric upside—especially amid global monetary shifts—makes it a once-in-a-generation investment thesis.

Saylor predicts BlackRock ETF will eclipse all ETFs within a decade

MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor declared that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) will become the largest ETF in the world within 10 years, following a record-breaking week where U.S. bitcoin ETFs drew US$2.8 billion in net inflows.

IBIT led the pack with US$1.3 billion, lifting its total assets to roughly US$54 billion and driving daily trading volumes above US$1.5 billion. For context, the current largest ETF, Vanguard’s VOO, commands a market cap over US$593 billion—nearly ten times IBIT’s current size.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas acknowledged Saylor’s claim wasn’t farfetched, but said IBIT would need to consistently attract US$3 billion US$4 billion per day to overtake VOO within a decade.

The bold prediction reflects mounting institutional appetite for BTC exposure, but also underlines the extraordinary capital movement that would be required for such a paradigm shift in ETF rankings.

$ TRUMP meme coin rallies after president offers private dinner

Donald Trump’s $TRUMP meme coin surged over 70 percent after the president promised an exclusive gala dinner for the token’s top 220 holders, including a VIP reception at his Washington DC golf club for the top 25.

Launched just before Trump’s January inauguration, the coin has exploded in both market cap—now estimated around US$2.5 billion—and political intrigue, reflecting the former president’s aggressive expansion into crypto.

This latest move aims to blend campaign optics with digital asset hype, positioning Trump not just as a “crypto president,” but as an active participant in speculative retail culture.

Critics have slammed the dinner-for-holders gimmick as a political stunt and potential conflict of interest, while others say it signals a new model of decentralized donor engagement.

Regardless, the announcement caused a major pump and reignited interest across meme coin forums and pro-Trump financial channels.

Swiss central bank rejects Bitcoin in reserves

Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel flatly rejected proposals to include bitcoin in the country’s currency reserves, stating it ‘cannot currently fulfil the requirements’ needed for official holdings.

At the SNB’s annual meeting in Bern, Schlegel cited bitcoin’s extreme volatility and insufficient liquidity as major concerns, making it unsuitable for maintaining the stability and convertibility of the national reserve portfolio.

This comes as activists behind the ‘Bitcoin Initiative’ mount a constitutional referendum campaign that would legally compel the SNB to hold BTC alongside gold. Luzius Meisser, one of the movement’s leaders, argued bitcoin could prove invaluable in a future marked by declining trust in government debt.

The SNB’s resistance, however, signals continued institutional reluctance to enshrine bitcoin as a strategic monetary asset, even in one of the world’s most financially progressive nations.

CME Group to launch XRP futures

The Chicago Mercantile Group (CME) announced plans to launch XRP futures contracts, according to an announcement by the derivatives marketplace on Thursday (April 24).

“As innovation in the digital asset landscape continues to evolve, market participants continue to look to regulated derivatives products to manage risks across a wider range of tokens,” said Giovanni Vicioso, Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products at CME Group. “Interest in XRP and its underlying ledger (XRPL) has steadily increased as institutional and retail adoption for the network grows, and we are pleased to launch these new futures contracts to provide a capital-efficient toolset to support clients’ investment and hedging strategies.”

Pending regulatory approval, participants will be able to trade micro-sized contracts comprising 2,500 XRP and/or large contracts of 50,000 XRP starting on May 19.

Nasdaq calls for consistent digital asset regulation

A letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from the Nasdaq exchange on Friday (April 25) called on regulators to apply the same regulatory standards to digital assets as they do to securities, particularly if these assets function as ‘stocks by any other name.’

Nasdaq asserted that the SEC needs to develop a more distinct classification system for cryptocurrencies, suggesting that some digital assets should be categorized as ‘financial securities.’ The exchange contended that these tokens should continue to be regulated in the same manner as traditional securities, irrespective of their tokenized format.

“Whether it takes the form of a paper share, a digital share, or a token, an instrument’s underlying nature remains the same and it should be traded and regulated in the same ways,” the letter said.

The letter also proposed categorizing some cryptocurrencies as “digital asset investment contracts,” which would still be overseen by the SEC, but subject to “light touch regulation”.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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This post appeared first on investingnews.com

S&P 500 Rises from Bearish to Neutral, But Will It Last?

The S&P 500 index managed to log one of its strongest weeks in 2025. Short-term breadth conditions have improved, and the crucial 5500 level has now been broken to the upside. Are we in the later stages of a countertrend rally, or just in the early innings of a broader recovery for stocks?

Let’s review three key charts together and evaluate the evidence.

Trendline Break Suggests Further Short-Term Strength

My daily chart of the S&P 500 has featured a thick pink trendline since March, when a lower peak around 5800 provided a perfect opportunity to define the downtrend phase. With the quick reversal off the early April low around 4850, the SPX has finally broken back above this trendline.

To be clear, after a breakout of this magnitude, I’m always looking for confirmation from the following day. Will additional buyers come in to push this chart even further to the upside? Assuming that’s the case, then I’m immediately drawn to a confluence of resistance in the 5750-5850 range. The 200-day moving average is currently sitting right around the late March peak, and both of those levels line up well with a price gap back in November 2024.

If the S&P 500 can finally break above that resistance range, I would expect much further upside for risk assets.

Breadth Conditions Confirm Short-Term Market Strength

One of the biggest improvements I’ve seen coming out of the early April low is the upgrade in short-term breadth conditions. The McClellan Oscillator has broken back above the zero level, most days this week saw more advancers than decliners, and the Bullish Percent Index has definitely improved.

In the bottom panel, we can see that the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has risen from a low just above 10% at the April low to finish this week at 64%. That confirms that over half of the S&P 500 members generated a point & figure buy signal in the month of April!

But the middle panel shows the real challenge here, in that long-term measures of breadth are still clearly in the bearish range. Just 35% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, similar to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. It’s only if this indicator can push above the 50% level that the S&P 500 could stand a real chance of sustainable gains above 5750.

The Stoplight Technique Lays Out a Clear Playbook

I love to overlay a “stoplight” visualization on a chart like this, helping me clarify how I’ll think about risk depending on where the S&P 500 sits at any given point.

I would argue that a confirmed break above resistance at 5500 brings the S&P 500 chart into the “neutral” bucket. In this way, we’re respecting the fact that a rally from 4850 to 5500 is a fairly impressive feat, but also acknowledging that the SPX remains below its most important long-term trend barometer, the 200-day moving average.

If we see further gains in the weeks to come, the SPX may indeed push into the bullish range, which for me would mean a push above 5750-5800. In that scenario, the S&P 500 would be clear of its 200-day moving average, and I would feel much more comfortable adding risk to the portfolio. Until and unless we see that upside follow-through, though, I’ll remain comfortably defensive.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Navigate Market Shifts Like a Pro: Utilize This Key Indicator Effectively

After weeks of uncertainty, the stock market finally gave us something to smile about. The major indexes just wrapped up four straight days of gains, and optimism is starting to creep back in. Could this be the shift we’ve been waiting for?

Let’s break it down.

The big concerns this week were all about tariffs and the potential removal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. But markets breathed a sigh of relief when it looked like tensions might ease between the two largest global economies. Plus, Powell staying put at the Fed helped calm some nerves.

In short, the fear factor took a breather, and the bulls took charge.

What Are the Charts Telling Us?

The S&P 500 ($SPX) crossed above the key 5500 level. This isn’t just any number; it’s a major line in the sand. It represents the March low and, if you go further back on the daily chart below, it has been a support and resistance level for previous price action. The purple horizontal line marks the 5,500 level.

FIGURE 1. SIGNS OF A TURNAROUND? The S&P 500 closed above the key 5,500 level, a major breakthrough. Breadth indicators are suggesting expanding bullish participation. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Even better, market breadth is improving.

We are also seeing strength across the board:

  • BPI readings for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 100, S&P 500, and Dow Industrials are all above 50%.
  • 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have BPIs above 50%, with Consumer Staples being the only one with a BPI below 50. This is surprising since it was one of the only sectors above 50% not long ago.

Sector Watch: Who’s Leading?

If you’re looking for clues about the market’s next big move, watch sector rotation. Right now, leadership is coming from:

  • Technology
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Communication Services

These are your classic “risk-on” sectors—if they’re leading, that’s typically a bullish sign.

What About Bonds, Gold, and the Dollar?

Some of the big-picture trends are starting to stabilize, too:

  • Bond yields are dipping, which is helping bond prices recover.
  • Gold pulled back after hitting new highs.
  • The U.S. dollar is showing signs of strength again.
  • And the $VIX—Wall Street’s fear gauge—is finally back below 30.

All small signs, but they add up.

Indicator of the Week: The Zweig Breadth Thrust

One indicator all technical analysts should take note of is the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator.  It’s a rare signal that flashes when market breadth shifts quickly from bearish to bullish.

The indicator is the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) of net NYSE advances. The NYSE Breadth Thrust signal fires when the indicator moves from below 0.40 to above 0.615 in 10 days.

The weekly chart below shows that this is the third time the Zweig Breadth Thrust signal was fired in the last five years. The last two times this occurred were in 2023, when the NYSE recovered after dipping below its 40- and 150-week simple moving average (SMA). This time, the index bounced off its 150-week SMA.

FIGURE 2. ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST FIRES A REVERSAL SIGNAL. Previous signals have been followed by bullish moves in the NYSE. Will we see a similar scenario this time? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The Zweig Breadth Thrust is a bullish reversal signal. Note that each time the signal was fired, the market moved higher. It doesn’t guarantee a bull run, but it’s a green flag.

What’s Coming Next Week?

If this weren’t a headline-driven market, I would be more confident about the possibility of the market moving higher. Next week is packed with potential market-moving headlines.

  • Big Tech earnings
  • Q1 GDP
  • PCE Inflation data (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge)
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • Non-Farm Payrolls

At the Close

The underlying market conditions are improving and some key signals are flashing green. But, as noted, it’s still a headline-driven market, and that means all the more reason to stay alert. Focus on leading sectors, watch for confirmation in breadth, and keep your investment plan tight.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 4.59% on the week, at 5525.21, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.48% on the week at 40,113.50; Nasdaq Composite up 6.73% on the week at 17,382.94.
  • $VIX down 16.22% on the week, closing at 24.84.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Consumer Staples
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB); Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD); Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK); MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and others reporting
  • March JOLTs Job Openings
  • Q1 GDP Growth Rate
  • March PCE
  • April ISM Manufacturing
  • April Non-Farm Payrolls

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Top 5 Canadian Mining Stocks This Week: Tag Oil Posts 76 Percent Gain

South of the border, cooling rhetoric from the Trump administration led what turned out to be a relatively quiet news week.

Markets were volatile at the start of the week, however, after US President Donald Trump suggested on April 17 that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s “termination couldn’t come fast enough.”

The president softened his stance on Tuesday (April 22) when he said he had no intention of firing the head of the US central bank, but called him a “major loser.” Trump has been critical of Powell, saying that he has been slow to react to the markets in making rate cuts.

For his part, Powell has remained steadfast in waiting for more data before making decisions to tackle interest rates, most recently saying the Fed was taking its time to analyze the effect of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

This week, the president also implied that the high tariffs of 145 percent he implemented against China may come down in the future, although he said they would not be removed entirely. The comments helped to ease market tension on Tuesday, although he didn’t say when he would lower them.

However, economists believe that unless there is a substantial reduction to the 10 to 20 percent range, trade between the countries will not be normalized.

China said it was open to working out a deal, but not until the US remove all tariffs levied against Chinese imports. The Chinese foreign ministry also contradicted Trump’s statements that the two countries had been in negotiations.

As for Canada, Statistics Canada released its monthly mineral production survey for February on Tuesday.

The report showed that metallic mineral production was down from January. Copper production fell to 32.42 million kilograms from 34.1 million kilograms, gold production fell to 16,431 kilograms from 16,969 kilograms and silver production declined to 20,543 kilograms from 22,634 kilograms.

Shipments mostly increased compared to January’s figures. Copper rose to 29.23 million kilograms from 28.58 million kilograms and gold shipments increased to 15,328 kilograms from 14,751 kilograms. Silver saw the only decline, dropping to 16,592 kilograms from 17,227 kilograms.

Markets and commodities react

In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) gained 2.24 percent during the week to close at 24,710.51 on Friday (April 25), the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) rose 2.25 percent to 653.82 and the CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) surged 6.05 percent to 120.11.

US equity markets were highly volatile this week, but posted significant gains by close on Friday, with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) adding 5.67 percent to close at 5,525.22, the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) gaining 7.82 percent to 19,432.56 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) rose 3.1 percent to 40,113.51.

The gold price climbed to a new high early in the week, touching the US$3,500 per ounce mark on Tuesday. However, by the end of the week it was in retreat, closing out Friday down 0.75 percent at US$3,307.54. The silver price went the opposite direction, rising 1.79 percent during the period to US$33.05.

In base metals, the COMEX copper price gained 3.16 percent over the week to US$4.89 per pound. Meanwhile, the S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) fell 0.25 percent to close at 537.20.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

So how did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Here’s a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stock data for this article was retrieved at 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Companies within the non-energy minerals and energy minerals sectors were considered.

1. Tag Oil (TSXV:TAO)

Weekly gain: 76.47 percent
Market cap: C$32.77 million
Share price: C$0.15

Tag Oil is an oil and gas development company working to advance assets in Egypt’s Badr oil field.

The oilfield was first discovered in 1982 and has seen significant production since that time. Tag has been focused on exploration of the Abu Roash formation, and according to a November 2022 report, has estimated that its BED-1 concession contains more than 531.5 million barrels of oil in place, and represents an opportunity for successful commercial development.

Shares in Tag gained this week after the company announced on Tuesday that it had closed the sale of its 2.5 percent gross overriding royalty interests on the Cheal, Cardiff, Sidewinder, Puka and Cheal East operations in New Zealand. The company received the royalties in 2018 when it sold the assets.

Under the terms of the sale, the company received US$2.2 million, with the possibility of an additional US$300,000 in milestone payments. Tag stated the sale allows it to reallocate its resources to advancing its core business in Egypt.

2. Critical One Energy (CSE:CRTL)

Weekly gain: 63.27 percent
Market cap: C$12.65 million
Share price: C$0.40

Critical One is a critical mineral and uranium exploration company working to advance projects in Canada and Namibia.

The company’s uranium projects are located in Namibia and consist of the Madison West and the Madison North projects. They are situated in a region that hosts two producing uranium mines, the China National Nuclear Power (SHA:601985) led Rössing mine and CGN Power’s (OTC Pink:CGNWF,HKEX:1816) Husab mine.

The Madison West site covers an area of 35 square kilometers and hosts four primary prospects, including ML121, which has geological similarities to the deposits found at Rössing. The Madison North site covers an area of 26.13 square kilometers and has seen 50 holes completed over 3,720 meters.

Critical One’s newest asset is the Howells Lake antimony-gold project located near Thunder Bay in Ontario, Canada. The site is composed of 697 claims covering an area of 13,991 hectares. According to the project page, a historic resource estimate shows 51 million pounds of contained antimony from 1.7 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 1.7 percent antimony.

Multiple parties previously owned the property, and on January 13, Critical One announced it had entered into a definitive purchase and sale agreement with Bounty Gold and the other vendors to acquire 100 percent of the project.

The company has not released any project news in the last week.

3. Patagonia Gold (TSXV:PGDC)

Weekly gain: 55.56 percent
Market cap: C$32.55 million
Share price: C$0.07

Patagonia Gold is a precious metals production and development company primarily focused on advancing its Cap-Oeste and Calcatreu underground projects in Argentina.

Located in Santa Cruz province, Cap-Oeste hosted open-pit mining operations until 2018. While Patagonia is working on the exploration and development of the underground resource at the site, it has been able to recover gold and silver from residual leaching on site.

In Patagonia’s management discussion and analysis, released on November 29, it reported that it had produced 1,415 ounces of gold and 65,046 ounces of silver from Cap-Oeste during the first nine months of 2024.

According to the company’s website, a 2018 mineral resource estimate for Cap-Oeste reported measured and indicated values of 704,300 ounces of gold and 21.43 million ounces of silver from 10.56 million metric tons of ore with average grades of 2.07 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold and 63.2 g/t silver.

Acquired in a deal with Pan American Silver (NYSE:PAAS,TSX:PAAS) in 2017, the Calcatreu project is located in Argentina’s Rio Negro province and covers approximately 90,000 hectares. A 2018 mineral resource estimate for Calcatreu reported measured and indicated values of 669,000 ounces of gold and 6.28 million ounces of silver from 9.84 million metric tons of ore with average grades of 2.11 g/t gold and 19.8 g/t silver.

The most recent news from the company came on Tuesday when it announced it had increased its loan facility with Cantomi Capital to US$50 million from US$45 million with a maturity date of December 31, 2026. The company intends to use the additional funds to continue the development at Calcatreu.

4. Azincourt Energy (TSXV:AAZ)

Weekly gain: 50 percent
Market cap: C$11.23 million
Share price: C$0.03

Azincourt Energy is a uranium exploration and development company working to advance projects in Canada.

One of its main focuses in 2025 is the Snegamook uranium project in the Central Mineral Belt of Newfoundland and Labrador. In October 2024, the company signed an option agreement to acquire a 100 percent stake in the property from BR Corporation.

The belt contains multiple uranium deposits including Paladin Energy’s (TSX:PDN,ASX:PDN) Michelin deposit, which hosts a measured and indicated resource of 82.2 million pounds of U3O8.

The property consists of 17 claims covering an area of 423 hectares and hosts proven shallow uranium mineralization. Previous exploration work discovered 1.3 kilometers of uranium bearing strike.

The most recent news from the project came on March 25, when Azincourt announced it was planning its inaugural work program that would include up to 1,000 meters of initial diamond drilling to confirm and expand on known uranium mineralization.

Its other focus this year has been at its East Preston project in the Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan. The site covers 20,647 hectares and is one of the largest landholdings in the region.

Azincourt announced on April 1 that it was planning a geophysical program at the property in the fall, and in the winter it may perform follow-up diamond drilling on clay alteration zones discovered at the site in 2023 and 2024.

5. Novagold (TSX:NG)

Weekly gain: 49.88 percent
Market cap: C$2.31 billion
Share price: C$6.18

Novagold is a development company working to bring its Donlin Gold asset into production. The property, located in West-central Alaska, US, is currently a 50/50 joint venture between Novagold and Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX,NYSE:GOLD).

According to a June 2021 technical report, the property hosts proven and probable reserves of 33.85 million ounces of gold from 504.81 million metric tons of ore with an average grade of 2.09 g/t gold.

The report also demonstrated an after tax net present value of US$3.04 billion with an internal rate of return of 9.2 percent over a payback period of 7.3 years, all of which is based on a gold price of US$1,500 per ounce.

On Tuesday, the company announced that it and Paulson Advisers had entered into a definitive agreement with Barrick Gold to acquire Barrick’s 50 percent interest in the project for US$1 billion, with Novagold purchasing 10 percent of it for US$200 million. Upon completion, Novagold’s stake will increase to 60 percent and Paulson Advisers will hold a 40 percent stake.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

What is the difference between the TSX and TSXV?

The TSX, or Toronto Stock Exchange, is used by senior companies with larger market caps, and the TSXV, or TSX Venture Exchange, is used by smaller-cap companies. Companies listed on the TSXV can graduate to the senior exchange.

How many mining companies are listed on the TSX and TSXV?

As of February 2025, there were 1,572 companies listed on the TSXV, 905 of which were mining companies. Comparatively, the TSX was home to 1,859 companies, with 181 of those being mining companies.

Together the TSX and TSXV host around 40 percent of the world’s public mining companies.

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Article by Dean Belder; FAQs by Lauren Kelly.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Lauren Kelly, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Editor’s Picks: Gold Price Touches US$3,500 in Volatile Week, M&A Heats Up

It was quite a week for the gold price.

The yellow metal continued its record-breaking streak early in the period, touching the US$3,500 per ounce level for the first time, but then saw a sharp pullback, even dropping briefly below US$3,300.

What’s behind gold’s latest moves? Market watchers have pointed to US President Donald Trump’s comments about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as the trigger for its latest spike.

In a Truth Social post on Monday (April 21), Trump said there could be a ‘SLOWING of the economy’ unless Powell — who he referred to as ‘Mr. Too Late’ — lowers interest rates.

Trump has criticized Powell heavily in recent days, saying last week that his ‘termination cannot come fast enough!’ That statement reignited discussions on whether Trump is able to fire Powell — Powell has said it can’t be done, and there isn’t any precedent since no president has ever tried to oust a Fed chair.

For now, the tension has subsided — Trump walked back his harsh words about Powell on Tuesday (April 22), saying he doesn’t intend to fire him, but still wants to see rate cuts.

‘I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates’ — Trump

Bullet briefing — Barrick to sell Donlin stake, CMOC to buy Lumina

Barrick to sell Donlin stake

Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX,NYSE:GOLD) has reached an agreement to sell its 50 percent stake in the Donlin gold project to affiliates of Paulson Advisers and NOVAGOLD Resources (TSX:NG,NYSEAMERICAN:NG).

The major gold miner will sell its interest in Donlin for US$1 billion in cash, with Paulson providing US$800 million and NOVAGOLD contributing the other US$200 million. Once the deal closes, Paulson will have a 40 percent interest in Donlin, while NOVAGOLD’s stake in the asset will rise from 50 percent to 60 percent.

Barrick President and CEO Mark Bristow said Donlin is an asset that ‘might be better suited in the hands of others,’ adding that the company is exiting at an ‘attractive valuation.’

While Donlin is one of the world’s largest gold projects, it is located in Alaska where infrastructure is scarce. At the same time, Barrick is looking to hone in on tier-one assets and boost its copper exposure.

Thomas Kaplan, chair of NOVAGOLD, said in a conference call after the sale was announced that his company ‘did not see eye-to-eye on a couple of things’ with Barrick, including the timing for a feasibility study for Donlin and the amount of drilling to conduct at the property.

Paulson Advisers, a longtime NOVAGOLD shareholder, is chaired by John Paulson, who is known for betting against the housing market during the great financial crisis.

In an interview with Bloomberg this week, the American billionaire said gold is ‘moving to a new level of valuation’ as central banks continue to buy.

CMOC to acquire Lumina

In other gold M&A news, CMOC Group (OTC Pink:CMCLF,HKEX:3993,SHA:603993) has agreed to buy Lumina Gold (TSXV:LUM,OTCQB:LMGDF) in a transaction worth C$581 million.

The all-cash deal will see CMOC pay C$1.27 per Lumina share.

Lumina is focused on its Cangrejos project, which it says is the largest primary gold deposit in Ecuador. A 2023 prefeasibility study outlines a 26 year mine life, with average annual payable production of 371,000 ounces of gold, plus average annual payable by-product output of 41 million pounds of copper.

‘After advancing the Cangrejos project for over 10-years and taking it from no defined resources to being poised to be one of the largest gold projects globally, the Lumina Group is excited for the transition of the Cangrejos project to CMOC,’ said Marshall Koval, CEO of Lumina Gold.

Well-known mining industry figure Ross Beaty is Lumina’s largest shareholder, while CMOC is a major producer of metals like molybdenum, tungsten, copper and cobalt.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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American liquor exports hit record high in 2024, driven by tariffs

U.S. spirit exports reached a record $2.4 billion in 2024, driven in large part by tariff concerns and ongoing global trade disputes.

That is according to the American Spirits Exports report published by trade association the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States on Thursday.

“U.S. spirits exports hit a new high in 2024, recapturing lost market share since the UK and EU lifted retaliatory tariffs that were applied between 2018-2021,” said DISCUS President and CEO Chris Swonger. “Unfortunately, ongoing trade disputes unrelated to our sector have caused uncertainty, keeping many U.S. distillers on the sidelines and curtailing sales growth.”

U.S. spirits exports to the EU surged by 39%, fueled by concerns over the potential return of a 50% tariff on American whiskey imports in 2025, which was suspended in 2022.

In March, Trump threatened to put 200% tariffs on French Champagne and other EU spirits, which led European world leaders — specifically from Ireland, France and Italy — to advocate for bourbon tariffs not to return as part of retaliatory measures.

The threat of that specific tariff has faded somewhat as the U.S. and EU continue trade negotiations.

Approximately 50% of U.S. spirits were exported to the EU — totaling $1.2 billion — making it the largest export market.

Exports to the rest of the world, however, declined by nearly 10%, the report found, which reflects the broader softening alcohol category.

Suntory Beam, the Japanese maker of Jim Beam bourbon whiskey, said in December it was preparing for tariffs by stockpiling supply in Europe. The company is already heavily reliant on France and the United Kingdom, which make up over 50% of its global exports market over the last eight years, according to global trade data from Panjiva.

Several of the top states for exports in 2024 are significant bourbon economies, according to the report.

Still, American whiskey exports, which accounted for 54% of all U.S. spirits exports, dipped 5.4% to $1.3 billion.

Swonger said that while outlook for spirits remains highly unpredictable with ongoing trade disputes, one fact rings true in the data: Exports go to countries that have eliminated tariffs.

“We are thankful for President Trump’s early success in securing India’s reduction of its tariff on Bourbon from 150% to 100%,” Swonger said. “It’s our hope that the administration builds on this positive momentum by securing additional tariff reductions in India and reducing trade barriers in other countries.”

Headwinds remain for the industry. Canada, the second largest market for U.S. spirits exports, imposed a 25% tariff in on alcohol coming over the border in March, and several provinces have removed product from shelves.

Distiller and brewers also face steel and aluminum tariffs that impact materials costs for brewers like Constellation Brands, which lowered long-term 2027 and 2028 guidance significantly around “the anticipated impact of tariffs.”

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Hasbro forecasts as much as $300 million impact if China tariffs don’t come down

If President Donald Trump’s 145% levy against imports from China holds, Hasbro estimates it could see as much as a $300 million hit to its bottom line.

The toy maker posted better-than-expected earnings on Thursday, but investors and analysts were more focused on the ongoing trade war Trump’s White House has waged against the toy industry’s biggest manufacturer.

Hasbro maintained the full-year guidance it issued last quarter, citing the uncertainty of the current tariff environment.

“Our forecast assumes various scenarios for China tariffs, ranging from 50% to the rate holding at 145% and 10% for the rest of world,” said Gina Goetter, chief financial officer and chief operating officer at Hasbro, during Thursday’s earnings call. “This translates to an estimated $100 million to $300 million gross impact across the enterprise in 2025. Before any mitigation.”

CEO Chris Cocks said during the company’s earnings call that “while no company is insulated, Hasbro is well positioned,” noting the company’s unchanged guidance is “supported by our robust games and licensing businesses and our strategic flexibility.”

“Prolonged tariff conditions create structural costs and heighten market unpredictability,” he said, adding, “ultimately tariffs translate into higher consumer prices.”

Cocks also warned of “potential job losses as we adjust to absorb increased costs and reduced profit for our shareholders.”

The company’s U.S. games business benefits from digital and domestic sourcing, as many of its board games are made in Massachusetts. Its Wizards of the Coast division, which includes Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons, has a tariff exposure of less than $10 million, Cocks said, as much of the domestic product is made in North Carolina, Texas and Japan.

The company’s toy segment faces higher exposure, as a larger portion of those goods are made in China. Cocks said the company is exploring options for moving its supply chain to other countries.

“Some of that, though, comes with the cost,” he said. “When we manufacture board games in the U.S., it is significantly more expensive to manufacture here than it is in China.”

He added that the company can shift the sourcing of Play-Doh, for example, from China to its factory in Turkey. Under that scenario, Turkey manufacturers would redirect shipments from Europe to the U.S. and Chinese factories could fill in to supply the European market.

Other products are more difficult to triage, especially those that include electronics, high end deco and foam components, Cocks said.

“China will continue to be a major manufacturing hub for us globally, in large part due to specialized capabilities developed over decades,” he said.

Goetter said that much of the manufacturing changes would be seen in 2026 and are dependent on if those countries already have the capabilities and infrastructure in place to make certain products.

Hasbro is also accelerating its $1 billion cost savings plan in an effort to offset tariff pressures, but noted that price hikes are unavoidable.

“We are going to have to raise prices inside of 145% tariff regime with China,” Cocks said. “We’re just trying to do it as selectively as possible and minimize the burden to the fans and families that we serve.”

Both Goetter and Cocks admitted that Hasbro’s plans are flexible and will change as the tariff situation evolves. The company is hopeful for a “more predictable and favorable U.S. trade policy environment.”

“We’re trying to play both defense and offense at the same time,” Goetter said.

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