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February 17, 2026

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The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Over the past year, the spot price of silver has surged past a 40 year record and into triple-digit territory, reaching a high of US$121 per ounce this past January.

For silver investors who bought into the physical market when the price was low, this first leg of the silver bull market has provided an opportunity to take ample profits.

At the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, Rick Rule, proprietor at Rule Investment Media, shared his strategy for leveraging profits made in the physical silver market.

“That’s how I save. I maintain liquidity in US currency and I save in gold,” he said.

What did Rule do with the remaining half of his gains from selling physical silver?

He deposited those profits into high-quality silver-mining stocks.

“My reasoning being as follows: If silver goes nowhere for a year, if it stays rangebound, the best silver producers are discounting US$45 silver a year from now. If the price is at US$75 or US$80 they’ll be discounting US$75 or US$80 silver, which means the stock will be up 50, 60, 70 percent,” said Rule.

“The speculative outlook for the silver stocks seemed to be better than the speculative outcome for silver. If silver stays flat for a year, by definition silver won’t give me any return. But if it stays flat, the silver stocks would give me 50 or 60 percent. So it was a better speculative outcome,’ he added.

Here’s a look at the five silver stocks Rule invested in after selling his physical silver. Market cap figures were accurate as of February 12, 2026.

1. Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX:WPM,NYSE:WPM)

TSX market cap: C$88.43 billion
NYSE market cap: US$64.53 billion

Wheaton Precious Metals is the world’s biggest precious metals streaming company.

Its business model involves making upfront payments to precious metals companies in order to gain the right to purchase all or a portion of their metal production at a low, fixed cost. Investors benefit from gaining exposure to a wide range of precious metals companies operating in politically stable jurisdictions, while reducing the risk associated with investing in individual mining stocks. The company pays a quarterly dividend.

Wheaton currently has streaming agreements in place for 23 operating mines and 25 development-stage projects across five continents. This includes investments in Newmont’s (NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM) Peñasquito mine in Mexico, Sibanye Stillwater’s (NYSE:SBSW) Stillwater and East Boulder mines in Montana, US, and Glencore’s (LSE:GLEN,OTCPL:GLCNF) Antamina silver mine in Peru.

2. Pan American Silver (TSX:PAAS,NASDAQ:PAAS)

TSX market cap: C$33.3 billion
NASDAQ market cap: US$23.67 billion

Pan American Silver holds interest in five silver-producing mines located in four Latin American countries.

This includes its three wholly owned mines: Huaron in Peru, Cerro Moro in Argentina and La Colorada in Mexico — its largest silver-producing asset. The company also holds a 95 percent interest in the San Vicente mine in Bolivia and a 44 percent stake in the Juanicipio mine in Mexico, operated by Fresnillo (LSE:FRES,OTCPL:FNLPF). Pan American’s gold-producing segment includes its second largest silver mine by production, the El Peñon gold-silver mine in Chile.

Ranked among the world’s largest primary silver producers, Pan American’s 2025 silver production total came in at 22.8 million ounces, alongside 742,200 ounces of gold. It’s set its silver production guidance for 2026 to between 25 million and 27 million ounces, white its expected gold production for the year is 700,000 to 750,000 ounces.

3. Industrias Penoles (OTCPL:IPOAF)

OTC market cap: US$26.14 billion

Founded in 1887, Mexico-based Industrias Peñoles is a vertically integrated metals company and a global leader in refined silver production. The company holds a majority stake in Fresnillo, the world’s leading primary silver producer.

Industrias Peñoles is also a top producer of refined gold and lead in Latin America, and one of the world’s leading producers of refined zinc and sodium sulfate. Its mining portfolio includes the Sabinas mine in Zacatecas, the Tizapa mine in Zacazonapan and the Velardeña mine in Durango. In the first half of 2025, Industrias Peñoles’ overall silver production from its mining operations came in at 30.3 million ounces of the metal.

4. AbraSilver Resource (TSXV:ABRA,OTCQX:ABBRF)

TSXV market cap: C$2.15 billion
OTC market cap: US$1.57 billion

Canadian junior Abrasilver Resource’s wholly owned flagship asset is the advanced-stage Diablillos silver-gold project in Salta, Argentina. It hosts five significant deposits: Oculto, JAC, Fantasma, Laderas and Sombra.

In December 2024, the company published an updated prefeasibility study for Diablillos, outlining a net present value (NPV) of US$747 million after tax at a 5 percent discount, as well as a 27.6 percent internal rate of return (IRR) and a two year payback period. An updated mineral resource estimate from July 2025 totals approximately 199 million ounces of silver and 1.72 million ounces of gold in the measured and indicated category.

Abrasilver has been busy expanding the upside potential at Diablillos via a Phase 6 drill program. The 15,000 meter campaign is aimed at extensions across various exploration targets. Results coming in from previous campaigns continue to demonstrate the potential for identifying gold and silver resources outside of the current resource estimate.

5. Vizsla Silver (TSXV:VZLA,NYSEAMERICAN:VZLA)

TSX market cap: C$1.73 billion
NYSEAMERICAN market cap: US$1.25 billion

Vizsla Silver is advancing toward production at its Panuco silver-gold project in Sinaloa, Mexico. Its expected to reach first silver production in the second half of 2027. In May 2025, the company acquired the producing Santa Fe silver-gold mine and property located to the south of Panuco. Production at the mine between 2020 and 2024 amounted to 370,366 metric tons of ore, with an average head grade of 203 grams per metric ton (g/t) silver and 2.17 g/t gold.

At Panuco, Vizsla completed a feasibility study in November 2025, outlining over 17.4 million ounces of silver equivalent production annually over an initial 9.4 year mine life, an after-tax NPV of US$1.8 billion at a 5 percent discount, an 111 percent IRR and a seven month payback at US$35.50 silver and US$3,100 per ounce gold.

The company has several upcoming catalysts for 2026. In the first half of the year, management is focused on completing detailed engineering, underground drilling, geophysical surveys and optimization work in order to make a construction decision in the second half of 2026 once permits are received. Throughout 2026, Vizsla is expecting to conduct 60,000 meters of diamond drilling across the Panuco district. A fifth phase of metallurgical testwork to optimize silver and gold recoveries using material from a 10,000 tonne bulk sample program is also planned.

After the interview with Rule took place, 10 workers were abducted from Panuco. Mexican authorities have since recovered 10 bodies as part of an investigation into the incident, with five being identified as Vizsla workers. The company has suspended operations at the site, although engineering-based remote work continues.

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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