Archive

December 16, 2025

Browsing

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

US President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing a major shift in federal drug policy that would relax decades-old restrictions on cannabis, potentially injecting new life into the industry.

Six people familiar with the discussions told the Washington Post that Trump is preparing an executive order directing federal agencies to pursue the reclassification of cannabis from a Schedule I substance to Schedule III.

The effort, still under internal review, was the focus of a December 10 phone call between Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, several of the sources said. Joining the call were cannabis industry executives, Secretary of Health Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mehmet Oz, administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

The people spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the meeting publicly.

Johnson reportedly expressed skepticism and laid out several studies and data points opposing rescheduling, but by the end of the call, Trump appeared inclined to proceed. However, the sources emphasized that no final decision has been made and that he could still change course; this was later confirmed by another White House official.

Reclassification would shift cannabis from Schedule I status — reserved for substances deemed to have high potential for abuse and no accepted medical use — to Schedule III, which includes Tylenol with codeine and certain steroids.

The shift would not legalize recreational use under federal law, but would remove some of the most onerous constraints faced by medical researchers and by companies operating legally in dozens of states.

“This would be the biggest reform in federal cannabis policy since marijuana was made a Schedule I drug in the 1970s,” said Shane Pennington, a DC attorney who represents companies involved in rescheduling litigation.

He noted that while Trump cannot unilaterally change the drug schedule, he can instruct the Department of Justice to bypass a pending administrative hearing and finalize the rule.

The political backdrop has shifted sharply in recent years. Cannabis is legal for medical use in most states and for recreational use in 24, and has become a multibillion-dollar industry. Both Democrats and Republicans have expressed interest in rescheduling even as broader legalization remains deeply contested at the federal level.

For cannabis businesses, reclassification would be economically transformative.

Current tax rules prohibit companies that sell Schedule I substances from deducting ordinary business expenses, a barrier that industry representatives have long described as crushing.

“This monumental change will have a massive, positive effect on thousands of state-legal cannabis businesses around the country,” said Brian Vicente, founding partner at Vicente. “Rescheduling releases cannabis businesses from the crippling tax burden they have been shackled with and allows these businesses to grow and prosper.”

Policy advocates say the move would eliminate a central pillar of the federal government’s 50 year prohibition regime, while also highlighting how much work remains.

“This is the beginning of a new era of public health policy,” said Shawn Hauser, also a partner at Vicente.

She called the directive “a long-overdue acknowledgment of marijuana’s medical value and safety,” while warning that rescheduling alone will not resolve broader regulatory inconsistencies or criminal justice disparities.

Trump, who said in August that he was “looking at reclassification,” inherited a stalled proposal originally launched by then-President Joe Biden that recommended moving cannabis to Schedule III.

Rescheduling’s origins trace back to October 2022, when Biden instructed the Department of Health and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to review whether the current classification for cannabis is scientifically justified.

Health officials concluded in 2023 that it is not, prompting the DEA to propose shifting cannabis to Schedule III in early 2024. The proposed rule has been frozen since March 2025.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

2025 was a watershed year for gold, which set new highs as its safe-haven appeal increased.

As global uncertainty intensified, the metal began to receive mainstream attention as a standout asset.

With the year set to mark one of gold’s strongest annual performances in decades, it’s a fitting moment to look back and revisit our most popular gold news stories of 2025.

Read on to see what caught our audience’s attention over the last 12 months.

1. Germany, Italy Face Pressure to Repatriate US$245 Billion in Gold as Trust in US Custody Wavers

Publish date: June 24, 2025

In June, growing distrust in US custodianship of foreign gold reserves and political uncertainty linked to the Trump administration put pressure on Germany and Italy to repatriate their foreign bullion.

At the time, both countries collectively held more than US$245 billion in gold reserves at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and local political leaders were raising concerns that the US had become a less neutral custodian.

German taxpayer advocates warned that increasing political influence over the US Federal Reserve could jeopardize access to foreign-owned bullion. Similar concerns surfaced in Italy, where critics argued that continuing to store gold abroad posed a strategic risk during a period of heightened geopolitical tension.

Germany repatriated 674 metric tons of gold from 2013 to 2017, but 37 percent of its reserves remain in New York.

2. What Does the GDX Index Change Mean for Gold Investors?

Publish date: September 19, 2025

In September, the world’s largest gold-mining stock exchange-traded fund (ETF) — the US$20.5 billion VanEck Gold Miners ETF (ARCA:GDX) — underwent a major structural overhaul.

VanEck transitioned GDX from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index, ending a benchmark relationship in place since 2004.

The switch adopted free-float market-cap rules that exclude locked-up or government-held shares, aligning the fund with index standards commonly used in broader equity markets.

3. Barrick’s Bristow Steps Down Following Hemlo Sale and Mali Challenges

Publish date: September 29, 2025

Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) went through a major leadership transition this year after CEO Mark Bristow unexpectedly left the company following nearly seven years at the helm.

Bristow, who had led the company since the 2019 merger with Randgold Resources, stepped down amid strategic disagreements with Barrick Chair John Thornton and a year marked by operational challenges, including ongoing legal and political challenges in Mali, where its Loulo-Gounkoto complex is located.

Bristow’s departure also came shortly after Barrick finalized a US$1.09 billion sale of its Hemlo mine in Ontario, formally marking its exit from primary Canadian gold production to concentrate on higher-margin international operations.

Chief Operating Officer Mark Hill assumed interim CEO responsibilities as the board initiated a global search for a successor. Hill previously oversaw Barrick’s Latin America and Asia-Pacific operations, and played a key role in the company’s initial decision to explore the Fourmile gold project in Nevada.

4. Mali Enforces Gold Seizure at Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto Mine

Publish date: January 13, 2025

Barrick’s tensions with Mali’s military government intensified at the start of 2025 after authorities seized gold shipments from the firm’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine, which accounts for roughly 14 percent of its annual production.

At the time, officials claimed Barrick owed more than US$500 million in unpaid taxes and state dividends under a revised mining code implemented in 2023. Detentions and legal threats against local staff heightened the conflict further, and the government reportedly intercepted approximately 3 metric tons of bullion.

The year-long dispute reached a conclusion on November 24, when Barrick confirmed a settlement with the Malian government that restores full control over the Loulo-Gounkoto mine.

Under the terms, the company was to pay 244 billion CFA francs (US$430 million), with 144 billion CFA francs due within six days of signing and an additional 50 billion CFA francs applied through VAT credit offsets.

In exchange, Mali was to drop all charges against Barrick, lift state control of Loulo-Gounkoto, release four detained employees and renew the company’s mining permit for another decade.

The agreement also requires Barrick to comply with Mali’s 2023 mining code — the same legislation that triggered the original confrontation.

5. Navigating Uncertainty: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Affecting the Gold Market

Publish date: August 27, 2025

US trade policy sparked gold market turbulence after confusion surrounding import tariffs, including whether Swiss-refined 1 kilogram and 100 ounce bars would be subject to rates near 39 percent. Traders rushed to secure physical imports amid the uncertainty, widening spreads between New York futures and London spot benchmarks.

The volatility eased only after US officials clarified their position.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com