Key Fed meeting takeaways

It’s worth noting that although the Fed’s cut went through, three out of 12 officials voted against it, a situation that hasn’t happened since September 2019. Two wanted rates to stay the same, while Governor Stephen Miran was calling for a 50 basis point reduction.

Miran took his spot on the Fed’s Board of Governors in September after being nominated by President Donald Trump, who has been critical of the Fed — and Chair Jerome Powell in particular — for not lowering rates as quickly as he would like. Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and it’s anticipated that his replacement will follow Trump’s vision. Kevin Hassett of the National Economic Council is said to be a strong contender, with 84 percent of respondents to a CNBC survey saying they think it will be him.

While the Fed’s rate decision was in focus this week, market watchers are also closely eyeing its post-meeting statement, as well as press conference comments from Powell, to figure out what the central bank’s policy will look like heading into the new year and beyond.

The latest dot plot shows that Fed officials expect only one rate cut in 2026, plus another in 2027. That’s unchanged from projections made in September, but experts have pointed out that the dot plot also highlights the growing divide between Federal Open Market Committee members.

Another important facet is the news that the Fed will start buying short-dated bonds as of Friday (December 12), with an initial round involving purchasing US$40 billion worth of treasuries per month. This move comes after the end of quantitative tightening measures on December 1, and is being looked at as a step in the direction of quantitative easing.

‘This is basically another way of saying quantitative easing, and we’re going to continue to print money,’ said David Erfle of Junior Miner Junky. ‘The Federal Reserve is in a situation where, ‘Hey, we’ve got to continue to issue new debt to pay off the old debt.’ So now the yield curve is going to steepen as the Fed pivots toward these treasury bills, and private investors are going to have to absorb more duration risk. So basically, this means loose monetary conditions are on the way, and that’s positive for both gold and especially now silver.’

Will the silver price keep rising?

With that in mind, what exactly is next for the silver price?

I’ve been asking guests on our channel where the metal goes from here, and many have said it’s becoming harder and harder to predict as silver enters uncharted territory.

Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor and Silver Advisor said that a ‘relatively conservative’ outlook for 2026 would be US$70. However, he also emphasized that higher levels are possible:

‘It’s taken 45 years for (silver) to finally break out through that US$50 level. And so we’re in uncharted waters, uncharted territory, and this being the kind of market that we’re in — fundamentally, as well as macroeconomically, as well as geopolitically — I think odds are silver is going to continue to climb higher.

‘And I think it’s going to convert a lot of doubters into into believers that silver is going to go on setting new record highs, and that it’s still relatively early in this market. We’re going to see it perform very, very well for several more years.’

For his part, Erfle weighed in on upside and downside for silver, outlining how the precious metal could get close to the US$100 level. Here’s what he said:

‘If you consider the supply/demand fundamentals, this is a fifth year of a supply deficit in silver, which has constantly been outpacing supply.

‘All these forces have converged to take the silver price so much higher, and looking at upside targets, the next target is the US$66, US$68 area, and then US$80 to US$83 if the momentum continues into January. But the long-term measured target of the cup-and-handle breakout is US$96.’

I’ll be having more conversations about silver next week with experts like Gareth Soloway, John Rubino and John Feneck, so drop a comment on our YouTube channel if you have any questions.

Silver’s price history since 2011

Silver price chart, December 11, 2010, to December 11, 2025.

Chart via SilverPrice.org.

After its 2011 peak, silver’s price pulled back over the following years before settling between US$15 and US$20 for much of the second half of last decade. An upward trend in the silver price started in mid-2020, when it was spurred on by the economic uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. The price of silver breached the key US$26 level in early August 2020, and soon after tested US$30. However, it failed to make substantial progress past that.

In the spring of 2023, the silver price surged by 30 percent, briefly rising above US$26 in early May; however, the precious metal cratered back down to US$20.90 in early October. Later that month, silver advanced toward the US$23 level on the back of safe-haven demand due to the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.

Following remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speculation about interest rate reductions sent the price of silver to US$25.48 on November 30, its highest point for the fourth quarter.

After starting 2024 on a low note, the white metal saw gains in March on rising Fed rate cut expectations. The resulting upward momentum led silver to reach a Q1 high of US$25.62 on March 20 before breaking through the US$30 mark on May 17. The silver price reached a then 12 year high of US$32.33 on May 20.

In Q3, the metal’s price slid down below the US$27 mark to as low as US$26.64 by August 7 alongside its industrial cousin copper. Heading into Q4 2024, silver reversed course to the upside, tracking the record breaking moves in the gold price. Silver once again breached the US$30 level on September 13 and continued higher.

On October 21, the silver price moved as high as US$34.20 during the trading day, up more than 48 percent since the start of the year and its highest level in 12 years. However, silver spent the rest of the year in decline, bottoming out at US$28.94 on December 30.

Silver’s price performance in 2025

Silver price chart, January 1 to December 11, 2025.

The silver price experienced a momentum shift at the start of 2025, breaking through the US$30 barrier as early as January 5, and reaching US$31.31 by January 29. The metal continued to post gains through much of February and March, climbing to US$32.94 on February 20 and then peaking at its quarterly high of US$34.21 on March 28.

Following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2, silver slumped to below US$30. While the Trump administration’s tariff policies have been largely beneficial for safe-haven assets like precious metals, there were concerns that the threat of tariffs could weaken industrial demand, which could cool price gains in the silver market.

Yet those concerns were pushed to the back burner as recent economic and geopolitical events have raised analysts’ expectations of a September rate cut by the Fed. The benchmark rate has not changed since November 2024.

On June 5, the silver price rose to a 13 year high of US$36.05 in early morning trading, before retreating toward the US$35.50 mark. By June 16, the white metal had broken through the US$37 mark for the first time since May 2011.

In July, increasing geopolitical strife in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine coupled with a positive outlook for China’s solar power industry proved price positive for both silver’s precious metals and industrial angles.

The silver price overtook the US$39 level to reach US$39.24 on July 22.

These same forces, coupled with the nearly unanimous rate cut expectations, launched the price of silver to over US$40 on August 31 for the first time since 2011, and by September 3 it had climbed as high as US$41.45. Silver continued climbing through September, progressively breaking level after level to top US$47 by the month’s end.

The white metal broke its all-time highs in most currencies, including Canadian dollars and Australian dollars, on September 22.

Silver started Q4 by continuing its ascent, breaking through its 2011 peak and topping US$48 on October 3, before climbing above US$51 to beat its US dollar high on October 9.

It continued climbing even higher on the safe-haven demand fundamentals behind its 2025 momentum. Helping drive that demand in October was escalating trade tensions between the US and China, leading to export controls on additional rare earth metals by China and threats of 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports by the US.

While silver pulled back to around US$48 in late October, news that the US government shut down had come to an end on November 9 drove the silver price back above US$50.

Silver’s foray above the US$56 level on November 28 came on the back of an outage at the Comex, where trading was briefly halted due to a ‘cooling issue’ at a CyrusOne data center used by the exchange.

Silver continued even higher through early December, and on December 12 the metal set a new highest price of US$64.65 two days after the Fed decided to once again cut interest rates.

Silver supply and demand dynamics

Market watchers are curious as to whether the silver price will continue its upward trajectory in 2025. Only time will tell, and it will depend on the white metal’s ability to remain above the critical US$30 level.

Like other metals, the silver spot price is most heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics. However, as the information above illustrates, the silver price can be highly volatile. That’s partially due to the fact that the metal is subject to both investment and industrial metal demand within global markets.

In other words, it’s bought by investors who want it as a store of wealth, as well as by manufacturers looking to use it for different applications that are incredibly varied. For example, silver has diverse technological applications and is used in devices like batteries and catalysts, but it’s also used in medicine and in the automotive industry.

In terms of supply, the world’s three top producers of the metal are Mexico, China and Peru. Even in those countries silver is usually a by-product — for instance, a mine producing primarily gold or lead might also have silver output.

The Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey, put together by Metals Focus, outlines a 0.9 percent increase in global mine production to 819.7 million ounces in 2024. This was in partly the result of a return to operations at Newmont’s (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM) Peñasquito mine in Mexico following a suspension of activity brought about by strike action among workers and improved recoveries out of Fresnillo (LSE:FRES,OTC Pink:FNLPF) and MAG Silver’s (TSX:MAG,NYSEAMERICAN:MAG) Juanicipio. Silver output also increased in Australia, Bolivia and the US.

The firm is forecasting a 1.9 percent rise in global silver mine production to 823 million ounces in 2025. Much of that growth is expected to come out of Mexico, and it is also projecting output will rise in Chile and Russia.

Lower production from Australia and Peru will offset some of these gains.

Looking at demand, Metals Focus sees growth in 2025 flatlining as industrial fabrication takes a hit from the global tariff war. This could be tempered by an anticipated rebound in demand from physical investment in silver bars and coins.

The silver market is expected to experience a substantial deficit of 117.6 million ounces in 2025, amounting to the sixth straight year of supply shortage for the metal.

Investor takeaway

Silver has neared US$50 multiple times, including its all-time high, and as momentum continues for the silver price in 2025 investors are wondering if it could reach those heights once again.

While it’s impossible to know for sure what’s next for silver, keeping an eye on the factors driving its performance, including gold’s performance, geopolitics, the economy and industrial demand, will help investors make decisions on when to buy and sell.