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September 12, 2025

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S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Canada’s First Set of Nation-Building Projects Paves Way for Mining, Energy Operations

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced the country’s first five nation-building projects.

In March and April, the Build Canada Strong platform was a cornerstone of Carney’s election campaign, which came amid increasing trade tensions between Canada and the US. Among his promises was to create a Major Projects Office (MPO) that would review projects deemed to be in the national interest.

That office was established over the summer, with a release saying it would be headquartered in Calgary and overseen by former TransAlta (TSX:TA,NYSE:TSE) and Trans Mountain CEO Dawn Farrell.

The MPO was created as part of a shift in the regulatory framework for approving infrastructure and resource projects in Canada. Part of that will involve streamlining reviews and assessments, as well as reducing duplication between the federal and provincial governments, an issue that has hindered investment in Canada over the last 20 years.

“One of many studies has shown that the regulatory requirements in Canada have increased by more than 40 percent since 2006 and that’s been suppressing investment growth by 9 percent,” Carney said on Thursday (September 11).

In his statement, the prime minister introduced the first tranche of projects, and suggested the second will be announced before the Canadian Football League’s Grey Cup match, scheduled for November 16.

He also outlined criteria for projects to be covered by the MPO. They must be in the national interest, and must strengthen Canada’s autonomy, resilience and security; they must also have clear benefits for Canadians.

The first group of projects selected by the MPO has already seen significant development.

The prime minister noted that they have already been through extensive consultation with Indigenous communities, and have worked with provincial and territorial governments to meet necessary regulatory standards.

For these, Carney said the goal is for the MPO to get them across the finish line.

“In some cases, they are in the last stages of regulatory approvals. In most cases, there is some aspect of the financing or support packages for the projects that remain to be determined,” he said.

Mining, energy projects highlighted in first tranche

Among the first five projects featured are three involving Canada’s mining and energy sectors:

        Additionally, the MPO has committed to supporting the Darlington New Nuclear Project in Clarington, Ontario. This project aims to develop the first small modular reactor in a G7 country.

        The MPO will also help speed up the expansion of the Contrecour Terminal container project at the Port of Montreal. This expansion is expected to boost shipping volumes along the St. Lawrence Seaway.

        A project that could be included in a future announcement is the Pathways Plus carbon capture project, which the prime minister said will eventually lead to further oil sands development and the construction of a pipeline to reach markets beyond the US. Additionally, Carney said the MPO is looking at upgrades to the Port of Churchill, as well as an Arctic economic and security corridor, a high-speed rail corridor between Toronto and Québec City and Wind West Atlantic Energy, which would provide wind power to the provinces on the Atlantic coast.

        Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

        This post appeared first on investingnews.com

        WPIC: Platinum to Hit Third Annual Deficit as Supply Fails to Meet Demand

        Platinum is heading for a third consecutive annual deficit in 2025, with the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) projecting an 850,000 ounce shortfall as demand continues to outpace weak mine supply.

        In its latest Platinum Quarterly, the WPIC states that despite a 22 percent year-on-year decline in demand, a lack of metal is expected to create a supply shortfall that’s only 13 percent lower than 2024’s 968,000 ounce shortfall.

        Its call comes amid a price breakout for platinum, which pushed past US$1,450 per ounce in July.

        Why is the platinum market in deficit?

        The biggest challenge for platinum has been weak refined production, which slipped to 1.45 million ounces during the quarter from 1.54 million ounces produced during the same time last year.

        This has led the WPIC to predict a 6 percent decrease in primary supply to 5.43 million ounces, down from the 5.76 million ounces produced in 2024. Output declines in top producer South Africa have had outsized effects on supply, as Q1 output came in at just 713,000 ounces, as heavy rainfalls negatively impacted production.

        Although output grew to 1.05 million ounces in the second quarter, it was still 8 percent lower than in Q2 2024.

        Additional decreases to output are also expected in Zimbabwe and North America, slipping 4 percent and 26 percent, respectively. However, Russia is set to see a 1 percent rise in output, increasing to 686,000 ounces from 677,000 in 2024.

        On a more positive note, recycling supply saw an increase to 423,000 ounces during Q2 from 379,000 reported in 2024. This has led the WPIC to predict a 6 percent annual increase to 1.6 million ounces from 1.52 million last year.

        The majority of this increase comes from growth in automotive recycling, aided by higher platinum group basket prices. However, the WPIC notes that despite the growth, recycling will remain depressed compared to historic levels.

        The WPIC predicts an overall supply decrease of 3 percent in 2025 to 7.03 million ounces, from 7.28 million ounces in 2024. With three years of deficits, the group is also expecting further drawdowns of above-ground stocks with a 22 percent decrease to 2.98 million ounces, representing four and a half months of demand coverage.

        In recent years, stockpiles have fallen from 5.51 million ounces in 2022 to 4.8 million ounces in 2023 and 3.83 million ounces in 2024.

        “I don’t think we’re going to see any meaningful mine supply response at these levels. It’s also worth bearing in mind that these are, for the most part, deep-level underground mines. So even if we had another 50 percent increase in the basket price, you’re still not going to see a supply response over the near to medium term,” he said.

        Watch Sterck discuss the platinum market.

        He went on to explain that development times for mining operations will take several years and wouldn’t be possible on time frames shorter than 18 months.

        “Recycling is definitely much more price elastic than mine supply over the near to medium term,” Sterck said.

        However, he added that while people tend to scrap vehicles at a consistent rate, the pace and overall supply entering the market from the auto sector is constrained.

        “Yes, we’ve seen quite a big increase in the platinum price year to date, but it’s not the main driver of the economics for those scrap aggregators and recyclers. It’s really more of a palladium story, even more so than rhodium. So, you need a sustained increase in palladium prices to drive a meaningful change there,” Sterck said.

        Demand to weaken in 2025, jewelry a bright spot

        Despite the expected deficit, the WPIC expects demand to weaken this year.

        Q2 saw automotive demand fall to 769,000 ounces, down from 788,000 ounces in the year-ago period.

        The WPIC’s expectation is that the auto sector will require 3.03 million ounces of platinum in 2025, a 3 percent decrease from the 3.11 million ounces needed in 2024. Likewise, the council is expecting a decrease in industrial demand for the metal as consumption drops off by 22 percent to 1.9 million, down from 2.42 million ounces last year.

        Jewelry demand, however, has been on the rise, with the expectation that it will increase by 11 percent to 2.23 million ounces in 2025. The WPIC suggests the higher growth is owed to its discount relative to gold, and notes that it is seeing the most substantial increase in China — fabrication is seen growing 42 percent in 2025 to 585,000 ounces.

        “What’s driving that increase has been fabrication funded by wholesalers, and they’re promoting platinum because they’ve seen a huge drop in their gold jewelry sales,” Sterck explained.

        Despite an increase in holdings of bars, coins and exchange-traded funds, overall investment demand was dragged down in Q2 by a 317,000 ounce decrease in stocks held in exchanges due to tariff-related concerns.

        Sterck said ongoing uncertainty in the platinum market earlier this year caused physical metal to shift from overseas markets into the US as traders began to worry about tariffs being applied.

        Although movement reversed as traders were told tariffs wouldn’t be applied, fears were later stoked when copper tariffs were announced, and an “ideological disconnect” between the White House and South Africa emerged.

        “Given that the current US administration has shown that it is willing to use tariffs as a kind of stick, if you like, for enacting foreign policy, you kind of come back to this sort of whole situation where there’s a non-zero chance of platinum being subject to tariffs in the US,” Sterck commented during the conversation.

        Overall, the WPIC expects total platinum demand to drop by 4 percent year-on-year in 2025 to 7.88 million ounces.

        Will the platinum price rise further in 2025?

        Fundamentals should remain the primary driver for platinum. Despite weakening demand through the first half of 2025, a structural deficit in the market still exists due to a lack of supply to close the gap.

        However, Sterck suggested the mining supply is likely to increase before the end of the year.

        “This year was particularly accentuated by flooding in South Africa during the first quarter of the year, so we do expect a bit of an increase in mining supply,” he said. However, he also noted that until there are more significant changes to the amount of supply, the price conditions aren’t likely to change much.

        “Fundamentally, at the moment, it just appears that the platinum price at current levels isn’t sufficient to attract enough metal into the market to really ease those market conditions,” Sterck noted.

        Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

        This post appeared first on investingnews.com

        Trump administration ramps up pressure on Labor Department with data probe

        The Labor Department has announced an inquiry into the Bureau of Labor Statistics over recent changes to its data practices.

        In a letter published Wednesday, the office of the inspector general for the Labor Department cited the BLS’ recent decision to reduce data collection activities for two key inflation reports, as well as the large downward revision in employment estimates it announced Tuesday. It said it is reviewing the ‘challenges’ the agency has faced ‘in collecting and reporting closely watched economic data.’

        The probe comes one month after President Donald Trump fired the head of the BLS as part of a broader pressure campaign that critics say has risked politicizing a part of the government that has long played a crucial role in the business world. The BLS, which is tasked with collecting data on economic indicators such as jobs and inflation, had generally been left alone by previous administrations.

        But Trump began zeroing in on the BLS as his frustrations with the Federal Reserve mounted, coinciding with economic numbers that started to warn about a broader U.S. slowdown.

        Since then, the labor market has slowed considerably. Just before the head of the BLS was fired, the department released a weaker-than-expected jobs report, citing claims of data manipulation that critics say are unfounded.

        Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, another frequent target of Trump’s, has said Fed policymakers are ‘getting the data that we need to do our jobs’ and stressed the importance of the federal statistical agencies.

        ‘The government data is really the gold standard in data,’ he added. ‘We need it to be good and to be able to rely on it.’

        Trump then nominated E.J. Antoni, an economist with the far-right Heritage Foundation, as the new head of the BLS, a move many economists have criticized.

        Trump and other BLS critics have focused on the department’s revisions to its reports, a practice that dates back decades and has been generally seen as a necessary part of the challenge of collecting near-term economic data. It has also faced other challenges in data collection, including budget challenges and low response rates to its collection efforts.

        The BLS previously said the decision to reduce inflation data surveys was necessary given existing budget constraints. Meanwhile, mainstream economists say the latest downward revisions — while large — are part of a routine annual process known as benchmarking.

        While response rates to the bureau’s surveys have been declining, researchers recently found that revisions and falling response rates did not reduce the reliability of the jobs and inflation reports.

        This post appeared first on NBC NEWS