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August 12, 2025

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The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Lithium, a naturally occurring trace element in the brain, may be able to unlock a key medical mystery: why some people develop Alzheimer’s disease and others don’t, despite similar brain changes.

In a recently published study, scientists at Harvard Medical School state that lithium not only exists in the human brain at biologically meaningful levels, but also appears to protect against neurodegeneration.

Additionally, their work shows that lithium supports the function of all major brain cell types.

The decade-long study drew on mouse experiments and analyses of human brain and blood samples across the spectrum of cognitive health. The Harvard team discovered that as amyloid beta, the sticky protein associated with Alzheimer’s, begins to accumulate, it binds to lithium and depletes its availability in the brain. This drop in lithium impairs neurons, glial cells and other brain structures, accelerating memory loss and disease progression.

“The idea that lithium deficiency could be a cause of Alzheimer’s disease is new and suggests a different therapeutic approach,” said Bruce Yankner, who is the senior author of the study.

Yankner, a professor of genetics and neurology at Harvard Medical School who in the 1990s was the first to show that amyloid beta is toxic to nerve cells, said the new findings open the door to treatments that address the disease in its entirety, rather than targeting single features like amyloid plaques or tau tangles.

To explore this possibility, researchers screened for lithium compounds that could evade capture by amyloid beta.

They identified lithium orotate as the most promising candidate. In mice, the compound reversed Alzheimer’s-like brain changes, prevented cell damage and restored memory, even in animals with advanced disease.

Crucially, the effective dose was about one-thousandth of that used in psychiatric treatments, avoiding the toxicity risk that has hampered lithium’s clinical use in older patients.

“You have to be careful about extrapolating from mouse models, and you never know until you try it in a controlled human clinical trial,” Yankner cautioned. “But so far the results are very encouraging.”

The path to these findings began with access to an unusually rich source of brain tissue.

Working with the Rush Memory and Aging Project in Chicago, the team examined postmortem samples from thousands of donors, from cognitively healthy individuals to those with mild cognitive impairment and full-blown Alzheimer’s.

Using advanced mass spectrometry, they measured trace levels of about 30 metals. Lithium stood out as the only one whose levels dropped sharply at the earliest stages of memory loss.

The pattern matched earlier population studies linking higher environmental lithium levels, including in drinking water, to lower dementia rates. But unlike those correlations, the Harvard team directly measured brain lithium and established a normal range for healthy individuals who had never taken lithium as medication.

“Lithium turns out to be like other nutrients we get from the environment, such as iron and vitamin C,” Yankner said. “It’s the first time anyone’s shown that lithium exists at a natural level that’s biologically meaningful without giving it as a drug.”

To test whether this deficiency was more than an association, the researchers fed healthy mice a lithium-restricted diet, lowering brain lithium to levels seen in Alzheimer’s patients.

The animals developed brain inflammation, lost connections between neurons and showed cognitive decline; however, replenishing them with lithium orotate reversed these changes. What’s more, mice given the compound from early adulthood were protected from developing Alzheimer’s-like symptoms altogether.

The findings raise several possibilities. Measuring lithium levels in blood could become a tool for early screening, identifying people at risk before symptoms emerge. Furthermore, amyloid-evading lithium compounds could be tested as preventive or therapeutic agents, potentially altering the disease course more fundamentally than existing drugs.

For now, researchers stress that no one should self-medicate with lithium supplements.

The team emphasized that the safety and efficacy of lithium orotate in humans remain unproven, and clinical trials will be needed to determine whether the dramatic benefits seen in mice translate to people.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Monday (August 11) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$118,815, down by 0.1 percent over the last 24 hours and its lowest valuation on Monday. Its highest price for the day was US$120,693.

Bitcoin price performance, August 11, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Analyst Omkar Godbole offered a cautious outlook, pointing to lower trading volumes for Bitcoin despite similar prices in July and a Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) discount suggesting weak US institutional demand.

Ethereum (ETH) has outperformed after a weekend rally.

Ethereum broke past US$4,300 on Monday as FG Nexus announced the acquisition of 47,331 ETH, worth about US$200 million. Meanwhile, data from Etherscan shows rising daily transaction counts over the past several weeks.

Creator coins like ZRO and PUMP also saw gains after announcements like Coinbase’s new DEX feature and LayerZero’s acquisition. Bondex CEO Ignacio Palomera called these developments an evolution in how creators can monetize their content. US consumer price index data on Tuesday (August 12) could fuel or dampen the crypto rally.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) was priced at US$176.39, down by 3.6 percent over 24 hours and its lowest valuation for the day. Its highest price was US$180.86.
  • XRP was trading for US$3.16, down 1.7 percent in the past 24 hours and at its lowest valuation of the day. Its highest was US$3.22.
  • Sui (SUI) was trading at US$3.69, down by 5 percent over the past 24 hours, and its lowest valuation of the day. Its highest level was US$3.77.
  • Cardano (ADA) was trading at US$0.783, down by 3 percent over 24 hours and its lowest valuation on Monday. Its highest was US$0.8008.

Today’s crypto news to know

Bullish aims for US$4.82 billion valuation in upsized IPO

Bullish has increased the size of its planned initial public offering (IPO), targeting a valuation of up to US$4.82 billion. It plans to raise as much as US$990 million by selling 30 million shares priced between US$32 and US$33 each, a higher range than its previous filing, but still below its US$9 billion target in a failed 2021 SPAC merger.

The cryptocurrency exchange said it will convert a significant portion of its IPO proceeds into US-dollar-backed stablecoins through partnerships with token issuers. BlackRock-managed funds and Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment have shown interest in purchasing up to US$200 million worth of shares.

Bullish is expected to price the offering on Tuesday and debut on the NYSE under the ticker “FLY” the next day.

Tether and Rumble propose joint acquisition of Northern Data

Tether and Rumble (NASDAQ:RUM) have proposed to jointly acquire all shares of artificial intelligence infrastructure company Northern Data, according to a press release issued on Monday.

According to the proposed terms, USDt issuer Tether, already Northern Data’s largest shareholder, would support the transaction, which would see each Northern Data shareholder receive 2.319 newly issued Class A Rumble shares for each Northern Data share offered, leading to roughly 33.3 percent of Rumble ownership being transferred to Northern Data shareholders. The final exchange ratio may be adjusted for the potential sale of Peak Mining and a related debt reduction, which would increase the exchange ratio.

Subject to definitive documentation, Tether would also significantly increase its investment in Rumble, becoming a key customer with a multi-year GPU purchase commitment.

Chainlink to partner with ICE

Blockchain oracle platform Chainlink announced a partnership with US-based Fortune 500 company Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) on Monday to bring foreign exchange and precious metals data onchain.

The collaboration will unite Intercontinental’s consolidated feed, an aggregator of market data from over 300 global exchanges and marketplaces, with Chainlink Data Streams’ derived data sets, which provide market information to power tokenization for over 2,000 decentralized applications and major financial institutions.

This partnership is the latest move to further integrate traditional market infrastructure with blockchain systems.

El Salvador targets wealthy investors with new Bitcoin banking law

El Salvador has approved a new investment banking law designed to attract institutional and high-net-worth crypto investors. Licensed investment banks with at least US$50 million in capital will be able to provide Bitcoin and other digital asset services, but only to clients meeting “sophisticated investor” criteria.

Requirements include at least US$250,000 in liquid assets and advanced financial knowledge.

The banks will be allowed to issue bonds, structure public-private projects and offer digital asset products. Lawmakers say the changes aim to position the country as a regional financial hub and draw in foreign private capital.

The move comes as President Nayib Bukele consolidates political power through constitutional reforms extending presidential terms and removing term limits.

Blue Origin to accept crypto payments for space flights

According to a Monday press release, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has partnered with payment processing company Shift4 Payments (NYSE:FOUR) to allow customers to buy tickets to outer space using crypto and stablecoins.

Trips will take place on Blue Origin’s New Shepard reusable rockets, and direct payments will now be accepted from popular wallets from the likes of MetaMask and Coinbase.

“Our mission has always been to revolutionize commerce by simplifying the transaction process, and we’re thrilled to now extend that vision beyond Earth,” said Taylor Lauber, CEO of Shift4.

“This partnership will enable adventurous travelers to book the adventure of a lifetime, no matter their preferred payment method — all with a simple, frictionless experience,’ he added. Blue Origin has flown more than 75 passengers past the Kármán Line, the boundary separating Earth’s atmosphere and space.

“We believe crypto and stablecoins are going to become an increasingly popular way for consumers to pay, particularly for high-end purchases, as both the consumer and merchant benefit financially from these transactions,” commented Alex Wilson, head of crypto at Shift4.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

NEW YORK — A top official at the Federal Reserve said Saturday that this month’s stunning, weaker-than-expected report on the U.S. job market is strengthening her belief that interest rates should be lower.

Michelle Bowman was one of two Fed officials who voted a week and a half ago in favor of cutting interest rates. Such a move could help boost the economy by making it cheaper for people to borrow money to buy a house or a car, but it could also threaten to push inflation higher.

Bowman and a fellow dissenter lost out after nine other Fed officials voted to keep interest rates steady, as the Fed has been doing all year. The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, has been adamant that he wants to wait for more data about how President Donald Trump’s tariffs are affecting inflation before the Fed makes its next move.

At a speech during a bankers’ conference in Colorado on Saturday, Bowman said that “the latest labor market data reinforce my view” that the Fed should cut interest rates three times this year. The Fed has only three meetings left on the schedule in 2025.

The jobs report that arrived last week, only a couple of days after the Fed voted on interest rates, showed that employers hired far fewer workers last month than economists expected. It also said that hiring in prior months was much lower than initially thought.

On inflation, meanwhile, Bowman said she is getting more confident that Trump’s tariffs “will not present a persistent shock to inflation” and sees it moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target. Inflation has come down substantially since hitting a peak above 9% after the pandemic, but it has been stubbornly remaining above 2%.

The Fed’s job is to keep the job market strong, while keeping a lid on inflation. Its challenge is that it has one main tool to affect both those areas, and helping one by moving interest rates up or down often means hurting the other.

A fear is that Trump’s tariffs could box in the Federal Reserve by sticking the economy in a worst-case scenario called “stagflation,” where the economy stagnates but inflation is high. The Fed has no good tool to fix that, and it would likely have to prioritize either the job market or inflation before helping the other.

On Wall Street, expectations are that the Fed will have to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September after the U.S. jobs report came in so much below economists’ expectations.

Trump has been calling angrily for lower interest rates, often personally insulting Powell while doing so. He has the opportunity to add another person to the Fed’s board of governors after an appointee of former President Joe Biden stepped down recently.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Nvidia and AMD have agreed to share 15% of their revenue from sales to China with the U.S. government, the White House confirmed Monday, sparking debate about whether the move could affect the chip giants’ business and whether Washington might seek similar deals.

In exchange for the revenue cut, the two semiconductor companies will receive export licenses to sell Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips in China, according to the Financial Times.

“We follow rules the U.S. government sets for our participation in worldwide markets. While we haven’t shipped H20 to China for months, we hope export control rules will let America compete in China and worldwide,” Nvidia said in a statement to NBC News. “America cannot repeat 5G and lose telecommunication leadership. America’s AI tech stack can be the world’s standard if we race.”

AMD said in a statement that its initial license applications to export MI308 chips to China have been approved.

The arrangement crafted by President Donald Trump’s administration is “unusual,” analysts told CNBC, but underscores his transactional nature. Meanwhile, investors see the move as broadly positive for both Nvidia and AMD, which once more secure access to the Chinese market.

Nvidia’s H20 is a chip that has been specifically created to meet export requirements to China. It was previously banned under export curbs, but the company last month said it expected to receive licenses to send the product to China.

Also in July, AMD said it would resume exports of its MI308 chips.

At the time, there was no suggestion that the resumption of sales to China would come with conditions or any kind of revenue forfeiture, and the step was celebrated by markets because of the billions of dollars worth of potential sales to China that were back on the table.

On Monday, Nvidia shares rose modestly, while AMD’s stock was up more than 2%, highlighting how investors believe the latest development is not a major negative for the companies.

“From an investor perspective, it’s still a net positive, 85% of the revenue is better than zero,” Ben Barringer, global technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC.

“The question will be whether Nvidia and AMD adjust their prices by 15% to account for the levy, but ultimately it’s better that they can sell into the market rather than hand the market over entirely to Huawei.”

Huawei is Nvidia and AMD’s closest Chinese rival.

Uncertainty, nevertheless, still looms for both U.S. companies over the longer term.

“In the short term, the deal gives both companies some certainties for their exports to China,’ George Chen, partner and co-chair of the digital practice at The Asia Group, told CNBC. ‘For the long term, we don’t know if the U.S. government may want to take a bigger cut from their China business especially if their sales to China keep growing.’

Multiple analysts told CNBC that the deal is “unusual,” but almost par for the course for Trump.

“It’s a good development, albeit a strange one, and feels like the sort of arrangement you might expect from President Trump, who is a deal-maker at heart. He’s willing to yield, but only if he gets something in return, and this certainly sets an unusual precedent,” Barringer said.

Neil Shah, partner at Counterpoint Research, said the revenue cut is equivalent to an “indirect tariff at source.”

Daniel Newman, CEO of The Futurum Group, also posted Sunday on X that the move is a “sort of ‘tax’ for doing business in China.”

But such deals are unlikely to be cut for other companies.

“I don’t anticipate it extending to other sectors that are just as important to the U.S. economy like software and services,” Nick Patience, practice lead for AI at The Futurum Group, told CNBC.

The U.S. sees semiconductors as a strategic technology, given they underpin so many other tools like artificial intelligence, consumer electronics and even military applications. Washington has therefore put chips under an export control regime unlike that of any other product.

“Semiconductor is a very unique business and the pay-to-play tactic may work for Nvidia and AMD because it’s very much about getting export approval from the U.S. gov,” the Asia Group’s Chen said.

“Other business like Apple and Meta can be more complicated when it comes to their business models and services for China.”

Semiconductors have become a highly sensitive geopolitical topic. Over the last two weeks, China has raised concerns about the security of Nvidia’s chips.

Late last month, Chinese regulators asked Nvidia to “clarify” reports about potential security vulnerabilities and “backdoors.” Nvidia rejected the possibility that its chips have any “backdoors” that would allow anyone to access or control them. On Sunday, Nvidia again denied that its H20 semiconductors have backdoors after accusations from a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media.

China’s state-run newspaper Global Times slammed Washington’s tactics, citing an expert.

“This approach means that the US government has repudiated its original security justification to pressure US chip makers to secure export licenses to China through economic leverage,” the Global Times article said.

The Chinese government is yet to comment on the reported revenue agreement.

Trump’s deal with Nvidia and AMD will likely stir mixed feelings in China. On the one hand, China will be unhappy with the arrangement. On the other hand, Chinese firms will likely want to get their hands on these chips to continue to advance their own AI capabilities.

“For China, it is a conundrum as they need those chips to advance their AI ambitions but also the fee to the US government could make it costlier and there is a doubt of US ‘backdoors’ considering US has agreed for chipmakers to supply,” Counterpoint Research’s Shah said.

— CNBC’s Erin Doherty contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS