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July 31, 2025

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S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Psychedelics Market Update: H1 2025 in Review

The psychedelic drugs market is emerging as a strategic investment opportunity in healthcare, with forecasts generally placing its value around US$6.4 billion in 2025.

This burgeoning sector is set for robust, double-digit compound annual growth, significantly driven by North America, which is anticipated to account for approximately 45–50 percent of this market.

The first half of 2025 was characterized by clinical advancements and softening policy stances, furthering momentum and contributing to growing market interest.

Clinical progress and policy shifts drive market interest

Interest in the space continued in H1 as drug candidates advanced into pivotal trials, particularly in the treatment of depression, anxiety and PTSD. Cybin (NYSEAMERICAN:CYBN) reported meaningful progress, citing investor and regulatory confidence in the therapeutic potential of psilocybin, LSD analogs and DMT derivatives.

Cybin’s 2025 financial results, released on June 30, highlighted significant progress in its lead programs, as well as its strong financial position, with C$135 million in cash reported.

CEO Doug Drysdale emphasized the company’s progress in building a strong foundation for anticipated clinical and regulatory milestones.

Key highlights include strengthened intellectual property with new patents for CYB003 and CYB004, strategic partnerships with Osmind and Thermo Fisher Scientific, and promising Phase 2 efficacy data for CYB003 in MDD, showing 100 percent responder rates and 71 percent remission with two 16 mg doses. The Phase 2 study for CYB004 in GAD is underway and expected to be completed around mid-2025.

Likewise, COMPASS Pathways (NASDAQ:CMPS) announced that its COMP360 psilocybin treatment successfully met its primary goal in a Phase 3 trial for treatment-resistant depression on June 23.

A single 25mg dose of COMP360 significantly reduced depression symptoms compared to a placebo at six weeks, showing a clinically meaningful difference and strong statistical significance. This marks the first Phase 3 efficacy data reported for a classic psychedelic, and Compass Pathways said it plans to discuss these positive results with the FDA.

Policy signals were equally consequential. Notably, the Texas House and Senate passed SB 2308 in May, which will provide up to US$100 million in state funds for ibogaine trials.

The results of the trials will be presented to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for potential approval of ibogaine for opioid use disorder, co-occurring substance use disorder and other neurological or mental health conditions. Governor Abbott signed the bill into law on June 11, representing a notable and progressive shift in the Republicans’ approach to drug policy.

However, the sector continues to face real challenges, such as costly clinical access and inconsistent regulatory frameworks that have resulted in a patchwork of state-level regulations. Despite these challenges, there are ongoing efforts towards federal reform and standardized guidelines.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently told members of Congress that new therapeutics using psychedelic substances could revolutionize treatment for mental health challenges.

‘This line of therapeutics has tremendous advantage if given in a clinical setting and we are working very hard to make sure that happens within 12 months,” he said during a House subcommittee meeting regarding the Trump administration’s proposed budget for the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

FDA head Marty Makary has likewise labeled the assessment of MDMA and other psychedelics as a “top priority,” announcing initiatives aimed at potentially expediting their approval.

One new program in particular aims to accelerate drug approval, potentially cutting review times from six months to one month.

This initiative might relax requirements for some drugs, possibly waiving placebo-controlled studies, which have been a hurdle for psychedelic research because patients often know if they’ve received the drug.

Looking ahead

The National Psychedelic Landscape Assessment (NPLA) identifies 11 states with a high likelihood of future movement based on legislative viability, advocacy strength, public support, legislative momentum and strategic impact: New Mexico, Nevada, Texas, Illinois, Missouri, California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Indiana, New York and Arizona.

The report also points to several key trends and persistent challenges in the current psychedelic market.

Decriminalization at the state level has seen an enactment rate of just two percent, despite being a frequently introduced legislative concept, with 67 bills introduced since 2020. Movements have been hampered by public health and safety concerns, although local efforts are gaining momentum.

However, adult-use access has seen no legislative enactments through state legislatures, with existing programs in Oregon and Colorado being implemented predominantly via citizen-led ballot initiatives.

When it comes to medical access programs, New Mexico stands out as the sole state to successfully enact a licensed and regulated psilocybin therapy program through SB 219, battling hurdles such as regulatory complexity, affordability and securing sufficient provider participation.

The report also found that clinical trials have been gaining traction, particularly when state-funded and focused on vulnerable populations like veterans and first responders, with Indiana emerging as a leader in this area.

The state established a therapeutic psilocybin research fund in 2024 that compares psilocybin against existing treatments, and ensures transparent fund administration and research application processing.

A more moderate approach is seen in pilot programs, which offer a controlled environment for access and data collection. The crucial step of implementing legislation, necessary to operationalize enacted policies, shows a 50 percent success rate, according to the report’s findings.

The report also points to corporate influence and the strategic efforts by corporate entities to gain commercial advantage through state trigger laws and compound-specific legislation favoring patented compounds like COMP360.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Gold Retreats, Equities Down as Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged​

The US Federal Reserve held its fifth meeting of 2025 from Tuesday (July 29) to Wednesday (July 30) against a backdrop of trade tensions, spurred on by the Trump administration’s tariffs.

The central bank met analysts’ expectations by holding its benchmark rate in the 4.25 to 4.5 percent range.

Chair Jerome Powell stated that although there were differences of opinion among the Federal Open Markets Committee members, they were clear on why they made their decisions, noting that inflation was tracking higher, but the job market remained stable.

“The labor market looks solid, inflation is above target, and even if you look through the tariff effects, we think it’s still a bit above target, and that’s why our stance is where it is,” Powell said.

The Fed chair also noted a slowing in gross domestic product, which he pointed out was up 2.5 percent in 2024, but initial data from 2025 points to a slowing in growth to 1.1 percent.

The vote to hold the rate was 9-2, with Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller being the dissenters who advocated for cuts. It marks the first time since December 1993 that two board members have broken with consensus.

Both Bowman and Waller were appointed by Donald Trump during his first term in office, with Waller being one of the front-runners to replace Powell when his term as board chairman ends in May 2026.

Trump has been critical of Powell in recent months, with the latest statements coming just minutes before the Fed meeting. The president has said Powell has not moved quickly enough to make rate cuts, despite data suggesting inflation has been starting to increase.

North of the Border, the Bank of Canada (BoC) also held its June meeting on Wednesday.

It also met expectations by holding its benchmark rate at 2.75 percent, with Bank Governor Tiff Macklem citing resilience in the economy despite trade disputes brought on by the Trump administration in the United States.

The BoC last changed its rate with a 0.25 percent cut in March to the current 2.75 percent from 3 percent.

Gold was down in the day’s trading, losing 1.6 percent to US$3,272.75 per ounce. Silver declined more sharply, losing 3.37 percent to US$36.93 per ounce at 3:30 p.m. EST.

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) was down, recording a 0.4 percent decline to reach 6,344.17. The Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) slipped 0.17 percent to come in at 23,265 , and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:DJI) lost 0.74 percent, coming to 44,297.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Recall warns some Celsius energy drink cans accidentally contain alcohol

The canned cocktail maker High Noon is warning customers that some of its vodka seltzers were accidentally labeled as Celsius energy drinks.

In a recall notice posted to the Food and Drug Administration’s website, High Noon said an unspecified number of its Beach Variety packs contain cans are filled with High Noon vodka seltzer alcohol but have been mislabeled as Celsius Astro Vibe energy drink, Sparkling Blue Razz Edition, with a silver top.

Celsius Astro Vibe Energy Drink, Sparkling Blue Razz Edition.Celsius

The products were shipped to retailers in Florida, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin from July 21 to July 23.

The recall was initiated after High Noon discovered that a shared packaging supplier mistakenly shipped empty Celsius cans to High Noon, it said.

No illnesses have been reported to date.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Trump ends de minimis exemption for global low-cost goods

President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order ending the de minimis trade loophole for low-value packages shipped from all countries.

The order, which takes effect Aug. 29, will subject any shipments of imported goods into the U.S. worth $800 or less to duties, the White House said.

Any goods shipped through the international postal network will be subject to tariff rates based on the value of the package and its country of origin.

The move comes after Trump in May shuttered the de minimis loophole for goods from China and Hong Kong. A federal trade court on Monday declined to block Trump’s de minimis ban, even after an auto parts retailer argued the action was unlawful and threatened its business.

Use of the de minimis provision has exploded in recent years as online shopping has become more prevalent. Ultra-cheap online retailers such as Temu and Shein have used the loophole to ship packages to American shoppers directly from China duty-free.

Shares of PDD Holdings, the parent company of Temu, dipped lower following the announcement.

The Trump administration has sought to close the loophole, calling it a “big scam” that hurts U.S. businesses. Officials have said de minimis facilitates shipments of fentanyl and other illicit substances, saying the packages are less likely to be inspected by customs agents.

The volume of de minimis shipments has skyrocketed to 309 million units so far this fiscal year, up from 115 million for all of last year, the White House said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS