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S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Psychedelics Market Update: H1 2025 in Review

The psychedelic drugs market is emerging as a strategic investment opportunity in healthcare, with forecasts generally placing its value around US$6.4 billion in 2025.

This burgeoning sector is set for robust, double-digit compound annual growth, significantly driven by North America, which is anticipated to account for approximately 45–50 percent of this market.

The first half of 2025 was characterized by clinical advancements and softening policy stances, furthering momentum and contributing to growing market interest.

Clinical progress and policy shifts drive market interest

Interest in the space continued in H1 as drug candidates advanced into pivotal trials, particularly in the treatment of depression, anxiety and PTSD. Cybin (NYSEAMERICAN:CYBN) reported meaningful progress, citing investor and regulatory confidence in the therapeutic potential of psilocybin, LSD analogs and DMT derivatives.

Cybin’s 2025 financial results, released on June 30, highlighted significant progress in its lead programs, as well as its strong financial position, with C$135 million in cash reported.

CEO Doug Drysdale emphasized the company’s progress in building a strong foundation for anticipated clinical and regulatory milestones.

Key highlights include strengthened intellectual property with new patents for CYB003 and CYB004, strategic partnerships with Osmind and Thermo Fisher Scientific, and promising Phase 2 efficacy data for CYB003 in MDD, showing 100 percent responder rates and 71 percent remission with two 16 mg doses. The Phase 2 study for CYB004 in GAD is underway and expected to be completed around mid-2025.

Likewise, COMPASS Pathways (NASDAQ:CMPS) announced that its COMP360 psilocybin treatment successfully met its primary goal in a Phase 3 trial for treatment-resistant depression on June 23.

A single 25mg dose of COMP360 significantly reduced depression symptoms compared to a placebo at six weeks, showing a clinically meaningful difference and strong statistical significance. This marks the first Phase 3 efficacy data reported for a classic psychedelic, and Compass Pathways said it plans to discuss these positive results with the FDA.

Policy signals were equally consequential. Notably, the Texas House and Senate passed SB 2308 in May, which will provide up to US$100 million in state funds for ibogaine trials.

The results of the trials will be presented to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for potential approval of ibogaine for opioid use disorder, co-occurring substance use disorder and other neurological or mental health conditions. Governor Abbott signed the bill into law on June 11, representing a notable and progressive shift in the Republicans’ approach to drug policy.

However, the sector continues to face real challenges, such as costly clinical access and inconsistent regulatory frameworks that have resulted in a patchwork of state-level regulations. Despite these challenges, there are ongoing efforts towards federal reform and standardized guidelines.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently told members of Congress that new therapeutics using psychedelic substances could revolutionize treatment for mental health challenges.

‘This line of therapeutics has tremendous advantage if given in a clinical setting and we are working very hard to make sure that happens within 12 months,” he said during a House subcommittee meeting regarding the Trump administration’s proposed budget for the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

FDA head Marty Makary has likewise labeled the assessment of MDMA and other psychedelics as a “top priority,” announcing initiatives aimed at potentially expediting their approval.

One new program in particular aims to accelerate drug approval, potentially cutting review times from six months to one month.

This initiative might relax requirements for some drugs, possibly waiving placebo-controlled studies, which have been a hurdle for psychedelic research because patients often know if they’ve received the drug.

Looking ahead

The National Psychedelic Landscape Assessment (NPLA) identifies 11 states with a high likelihood of future movement based on legislative viability, advocacy strength, public support, legislative momentum and strategic impact: New Mexico, Nevada, Texas, Illinois, Missouri, California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Indiana, New York and Arizona.

The report also points to several key trends and persistent challenges in the current psychedelic market.

Decriminalization at the state level has seen an enactment rate of just two percent, despite being a frequently introduced legislative concept, with 67 bills introduced since 2020. Movements have been hampered by public health and safety concerns, although local efforts are gaining momentum.

However, adult-use access has seen no legislative enactments through state legislatures, with existing programs in Oregon and Colorado being implemented predominantly via citizen-led ballot initiatives.

When it comes to medical access programs, New Mexico stands out as the sole state to successfully enact a licensed and regulated psilocybin therapy program through SB 219, battling hurdles such as regulatory complexity, affordability and securing sufficient provider participation.

The report also found that clinical trials have been gaining traction, particularly when state-funded and focused on vulnerable populations like veterans and first responders, with Indiana emerging as a leader in this area.

The state established a therapeutic psilocybin research fund in 2024 that compares psilocybin against existing treatments, and ensures transparent fund administration and research application processing.

A more moderate approach is seen in pilot programs, which offer a controlled environment for access and data collection. The crucial step of implementing legislation, necessary to operationalize enacted policies, shows a 50 percent success rate, according to the report’s findings.

The report also points to corporate influence and the strategic efforts by corporate entities to gain commercial advantage through state trigger laws and compound-specific legislation favoring patented compounds like COMP360.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Gold Retreats, Equities Down as Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged​

The US Federal Reserve held its fifth meeting of 2025 from Tuesday (July 29) to Wednesday (July 30) against a backdrop of trade tensions, spurred on by the Trump administration’s tariffs.

The central bank met analysts’ expectations by holding its benchmark rate in the 4.25 to 4.5 percent range.

Chair Jerome Powell stated that although there were differences of opinion among the Federal Open Markets Committee members, they were clear on why they made their decisions, noting that inflation was tracking higher, but the job market remained stable.

“The labor market looks solid, inflation is above target, and even if you look through the tariff effects, we think it’s still a bit above target, and that’s why our stance is where it is,” Powell said.

The Fed chair also noted a slowing in gross domestic product, which he pointed out was up 2.5 percent in 2024, but initial data from 2025 points to a slowing in growth to 1.1 percent.

The vote to hold the rate was 9-2, with Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller being the dissenters who advocated for cuts. It marks the first time since December 1993 that two board members have broken with consensus.

Both Bowman and Waller were appointed by Donald Trump during his first term in office, with Waller being one of the front-runners to replace Powell when his term as board chairman ends in May 2026.

Trump has been critical of Powell in recent months, with the latest statements coming just minutes before the Fed meeting. The president has said Powell has not moved quickly enough to make rate cuts, despite data suggesting inflation has been starting to increase.

North of the Border, the Bank of Canada (BoC) also held its June meeting on Wednesday.

It also met expectations by holding its benchmark rate at 2.75 percent, with Bank Governor Tiff Macklem citing resilience in the economy despite trade disputes brought on by the Trump administration in the United States.

The BoC last changed its rate with a 0.25 percent cut in March to the current 2.75 percent from 3 percent.

Gold was down in the day’s trading, losing 1.6 percent to US$3,272.75 per ounce. Silver declined more sharply, losing 3.37 percent to US$36.93 per ounce at 3:30 p.m. EST.

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) was down, recording a 0.4 percent decline to reach 6,344.17. The Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) slipped 0.17 percent to come in at 23,265 , and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:DJI) lost 0.74 percent, coming to 44,297.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Recall warns some Celsius energy drink cans accidentally contain alcohol

The canned cocktail maker High Noon is warning customers that some of its vodka seltzers were accidentally labeled as Celsius energy drinks.

In a recall notice posted to the Food and Drug Administration’s website, High Noon said an unspecified number of its Beach Variety packs contain cans are filled with High Noon vodka seltzer alcohol but have been mislabeled as Celsius Astro Vibe energy drink, Sparkling Blue Razz Edition, with a silver top.

Celsius Astro Vibe Energy Drink, Sparkling Blue Razz Edition.Celsius

The products were shipped to retailers in Florida, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin from July 21 to July 23.

The recall was initiated after High Noon discovered that a shared packaging supplier mistakenly shipped empty Celsius cans to High Noon, it said.

No illnesses have been reported to date.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Trump ends de minimis exemption for global low-cost goods

President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order ending the de minimis trade loophole for low-value packages shipped from all countries.

The order, which takes effect Aug. 29, will subject any shipments of imported goods into the U.S. worth $800 or less to duties, the White House said.

Any goods shipped through the international postal network will be subject to tariff rates based on the value of the package and its country of origin.

The move comes after Trump in May shuttered the de minimis loophole for goods from China and Hong Kong. A federal trade court on Monday declined to block Trump’s de minimis ban, even after an auto parts retailer argued the action was unlawful and threatened its business.

Use of the de minimis provision has exploded in recent years as online shopping has become more prevalent. Ultra-cheap online retailers such as Temu and Shein have used the loophole to ship packages to American shoppers directly from China duty-free.

Shares of PDD Holdings, the parent company of Temu, dipped lower following the announcement.

The Trump administration has sought to close the loophole, calling it a “big scam” that hurts U.S. businesses. Officials have said de minimis facilitates shipments of fentanyl and other illicit substances, saying the packages are less likely to be inspected by customs agents.

The volume of de minimis shipments has skyrocketed to 309 million units so far this fiscal year, up from 115 million for all of last year, the White House said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Piche Resources

Investor Insight

With high-quality, drill-ready assets with world-class discovery potential, Piche Resources is a compelling business case for investors looking to leverage a bull market for uranium and gold.

Overview

Piche Resources (ASX:PR2) is an ASX-listed mineral exploration company focused on uranium and gold exploration in Tier-1 jurisdictions: Western Australia and Argentina. The company holds 100 percent ownership of all of its projects and is supported by a highly experienced board and technical team.

Targeting globally significant discoveries in Tier-1 mineral provinces

Piche’s portfolio includes the advanced-stage Ashburton uranium project in Western Australia and two large-scale exploration projects in Argentina: the Cerro Chacon gold-silver project and the Sierra Cuadrada uranium project. These projects have delivered high-grade exploration results and are drill-ready, positioning the company to unlock significant shareholder value through systematic exploration programmes.

Piche has an internationally recognized board focused on creating long-term shareholder value, and an in-country technical team in Argentina with a proven track record of taking projects from discovery through to development.

Company Highlights

  • Flagship Ashburton uranium project in Western Australia with recent high-grade drilling results over wide intercepts.
  • Sierra Cuadrada uranium project in Argentina showing extensive near-surface mineralisation with assays up to 2.86 percent U₃O₈.
  • Cerro Chacon gold-silver project with high-grade surface results (up to 11.65 g/t gold and 333.7 g/t silver) across a 14 km mineralised corridor.
  • Fully permitted and EIA-approved for drilling at Cerro Chacon (Chacon South and Middle).
  • Large, 100-percent-owned tenement package across all projects (Ashburton: 335 sq km; Cerro Chacon: 414 sq km; Sierra Cuadrada: 1,310 km²).
  • Board of directors includes former leaders of Peninsula Energy, Orano, Rio Tinto Uranium and Barrick Gold.
  • Upcoming drill campaigns planned at Cerro Chacon and Ashburton to test multiple high-priority targets.

Key Projects

Gold: Cerro Chacon, Argentina

Cerro Chacon interpreted geology and tenement holding

Cerro Chacon is a large-scale, early-stage gold-silver exploration project located in the Chubut Province of Argentina. The project is situated within a region known for hosting world-class low-sulphidation epithermal systems, including Cerro Negro and Cerro Vanguardia. With multiple gold-bearing structures confirmed over a 14 km corridor, Cerro Chacon is emerging as a highly promising and underexplored precious metals system with substantial scale and grade potential.

Project Highlights

Location: ~40 km southwest of Paso de Indios, Chubut Province

Tenure: 414 sq km across multiple tenements

Highlights:

  • A 14 km-long mineralised corridor has been delineated across Chacon Grid, La Javiela and Toro Hosco prospects.
  • High-grade geochemical results include:
    • 11.65 g/t gold and 120.3 g/t silver at Toro Hosco
    • 333.7 g/t silver, 9.48 percent lead, and 8.57 percent zinc at La Javiela South
  • Maiden RC drilling programme of 57 holes (7,905 m) scheduled across three main targets:
    • Chacon Grid: 45 holes (5,590 m)
    • La Javiela: 8 holes (1,740 m)
    • Toro Hosco: 4 holes (575 m)
  • EIA approvals for Chacon South and Chacon Middle were received in May 2025, enabling drilling to proceed.
  • Vein systems range from 2 to 6 km in strike length and up to 50 m in width; hosted within structurally controlled low-sulphidation epithermal veins (LSEV).

Uranium: Ashburton Project, Australia

The Ashburton project is Piche’s flagship uranium exploration asset in Australia, situated in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Located within a historically underexplored but highly prospective unconformity-related uranium district, the project provides the company with strong leverage to the growing global demand for uranium. The project is geologically analogous to world-class Proterozoic uranium systems, with multiple confirmed mineralised zones and a regional corridor of 60 km.

Project Highlights

  • Location: Pilbara region, ~1,150 km north of Perth
  • Tenure: 335 sq km following the recent application for tenement E52/4461 (214 sq km), adding to the existing 122 sq km holdings.
  • Highlights:
    • 2024 RC and diamond drilling confirmed high-grade uranium mineralisation at multiple stratigraphic levels.
    • Best intercepts include:
      • 3.45 m @ 5,129 ppm eU₃O₈ from 137.62 m (ARC006)
      • 10.48 m @ 1,412 ppm eU₃O₈ from 114.30 m (ADD005)
      • 2.42 m @ 2,681 ppm eU₃O₈ from 155.10 m (ADD003).
      • 7.86 m @ 2,266 ppm eU₃O₈ from 105.42 m (ADD006)
    • The company has outlined a 60 km structural corridor hosting multiple uranium occurrences including Angelo A & B, Canyon Creek, Ristretto and Atlantis.
    • Atlantis prospect: historical drilling returned up to 7,400 ppm U₃O₈ over 2.2 m; rock chip samples have returned up to 37 percent U₃O₈.

Uranium: Sierra Cuadrada, Argentina

Sierra Cuadrada is Piche’s primary uranium asset in Argentina, covering a vast area within the San Jorge Basin. This large-scale project has demonstrated strong surface uranium mineralisation with multiple drill-ready prospects. With mineralisation confirmed across extensive zones and supported by historical radiometric and geochemical data, Sierra Cuadrada has the potential to host multiple Tier-1 uranium deposits in a cost-effective, near-surface setting.

Teo 5 and 6 prospect 2024 auger drill programme

Project Highlights:

Location: San Jorge Basin, ~200 km north of Comodoro Rivadavia

Tenure: 1,310 sq km across multiple licences

Highlights:

  • The project area contains broad, flat-lying mineralisation at multiple stratigraphic levels.
  • High-grade uranium assays include:
    • 28,650 ppm U₃O₈ (2.86 percent) from rock chip sampling at Teo 8
    • 24,017 ppm U₃O₈ from channel sampling
    • 2,772 ppm U₃O₈ over 0.5m from auger drill sample
  • Mineralised zones extend over a strike of 60 sq km, with confirmed targets on the majority of tenements.
  • 2024 auger drilling and sampling confirmed uranium continuity across a sandstone and conglomerate sedimentary package with 14 samples exceeding 200 ppm U₃O₈.
  • Rock chip sampling has returned 114 samples >200ppm U₃O₈
  • RC drilling is planned to follow up on anomalies identified in the auger and channel sampling programmes.

Management Team

John (Gus) Simpson – Executive Chairman

John Simpson has over 37 years of experience in mineral exploration, development and mining. Previously the executive chairman and founder of Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN), a USA uranium producer.

Stephen Mann – Managing Director

Stephen Mann is a geologist with over 40 years of experience in exploration, discovery and development of mining projects, including 20 years in the uranium sector. Formerly the Australian managing director of Orano, the world’s third-largest uranium producer.

Pablo Marcet –Executive Director

Pablo Marcet is a senior geoscientist with 38 years of experience in exploration, discovery and development of mineral deposits. Currently an independent director of lithium producer Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM) and previously a director of Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) and U3O8 (TSX:UWE).

Clark Beyer – Non-executive Director

Clark Beyer is an internationally recognized nuclear industry executive with over 35 years of experience. Formerly the managing director of Rio Tinto Uranium and currently principal of Global Fuel Solutions, providing strategic consulting to the international uranium and nuclear fuels market.

Stanley Macdonald – Non-executive Director

Stanley Macdonald is a nationally recognized mining entrepreneur, founding director and instrumental in the success of numerous ASX-listed companies, such as Giralia Resources, Northern Star and Redhill Iron. He is currently a director of Zenith Minerals.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Ethereum Price History: A Decade of Disrupting Finance

When Canadian-Russian programmer Vitalik Buterin penned a white paper in 2013 outlining a new kind of blockchain platform, few could have predicted the seismic impact it would have on the world of finance, technology, and beyond.

Today (July 30), Ethereum turns 10 years old, marking a milestone that represents a decade of one of the most influential blockchain platforms and a testament to the growing pains, triumphs, and resilience of the decentralized movement.

How did Ethereum go from a white paper drafted by a 19-year-old to a billion-dollar ecosystem that reshaped global finance?

Read on to find out more.

What is Ethereum and who invented it?

Co-founder Buterin said in a 2016 interview that Ethereum was born out of admiration for Bitcoin’s decentralized structure and frustration at its limited capabilities.

“I thought [those in the Bitcoin community] weren’t approaching the problem in the right way. I thought they were going after individual applications; they were trying to kind of explicitly support each [use case] in a sort of Swiss Army knife protocol,” Buterin said, summarizing his motivation to build something more adaptable.

From this foundational idea, Ethereum emerged as a decentralized, programmable blockchain — a “world computer” that would host smart contracts and decentralized applications (dApps), cutting out middlemen and enabling new forms of coordination.

The foundation of the fledgling project was laid between 2013 and 2014. After releasing his white paper in late 2013, Buterin attracted a handful of co-founders, including Gavin Wood, Charles Hoskinson, Joseph Lubin, Anthony Di Iorio, Jeffrey Wilcke, Mihai Alisie, and Amir Chetrit. Together, they spearheaded a crowdfunding campaign in mid-2014 that raised over US$18 million, one of the earliest and most successful Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in crypto history.

Despite this momentum, the Ethereum blockchain didn’t launch until July 30, 2015. That release, dubbed “Frontier,” was a basic, raw, and developer-focused version of Ethereum designed for building the infrastructure that would follow.

ETH, Ethereum’s native coin, initially traded for under a dollar. The early months saw little market movement as ETH hovered between US$0.70 and US$2.00, supported mainly by enthusiasts and developers interested in dApp potential.

When was Ethereum’s first major peak?

Ethereum’s first major price rally came during the 2017 crypto bull run, when rising global interest in blockchain technology and the initial coin offering (ICO) boom brought ETH into the mainstream.

After beginning the year at just barely US$8, Ethereum surged to a then-record high of around US$1,400 by January 2018, capping off one of the most explosive price increases in the history of digital assets. This more than 17,000 percent rise was driven by a combination of speculative demand and the emergence of Ethereum as the preferred platform for launching new tokens via ICOs.

By early 2018, however, the market began to reverse. A sweeping crypto correction saw Ethereum’s price fall back below US$100 by the end of that year. The drawdown exposed Ethereum’s technical bottlenecks, such as high gas fees and slow confirmation times during network congestion.

What was the DAO Hack, and how did it influence Ethereum’s trajectory?

Ethereum’s ethos of decentralization was also tested early on. In 2016, an experiment in decentralized governance — the Decentralized Autonomous Organization or DAO — raised about US$150 million in ETH from the community. The idea was to create a venture capital fund governed entirely by smart contracts and token-holder votes.

But just weeks after launch, a vulnerability in the DAO’s code that allowed for recursive call exploit was discovered, draining 3.6 million ETH or about a third of the fund.

At just ten months old, Ethereum was now facing a crisis that tested its fundamental principles, chief among them the immutability of the blockchain and the inviolability of smart contracts.

Three primary responses were debated. One option was to do nothing, honoring the hacker’s actions as legitimate under the rules of the code and accepting the theft. Another was to implement a “soft fork” that would blacklist the child DAO’s address, effectively freezing the stolen funds.

The most radical option was a “hard fork” that would roll back the ledger and return all stolen Ether to the original investors, which would undo the hack entirely.

Ultimately, the hard fork went ahead, and Ethereum split into two chains: the main Ethereum chain (ETH), where the funds were returned to investors, and a new chain called Ethereum Classic (ETC), which preserved the original ledger including the DAO hack.

How has Ethereum performed post-2020?

Ethereum price performance July 30, 2015 – June 30, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Ethereum reached its all-time high price of US$4,878 on November 10, 2021, during the peak of the 2020–2021 crypto bull run. The rally was driven by a convergence of factors: institutional adoption of crypto, a massive expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi), and explosive interest in NFTs, most of which were built on Ethereum’s ERC-721 standard.

By late 2021, Ethereum was settling billions in daily transaction volume and powering thousands of decentralized applications, cementing its position as the leading smart contract platform.

However, the peak was short-lived. Inflation fears and global risk aversion in early 2022 triggered a sharp correction across risk assets, including crypto. Ethereum’s price dipped below US$1,000 in June 2022 amid cascading liquidations and platform collapses like Terra and Celsius.

Still, even through the drawdown, Ethereum remained the backbone of DeFi, NFT markets, and layer-2 innovation, setting the stage for its long-planned transition to proof-of-stake later that year.

In the years that followed the fork, Ethereum faced growing pressure to scale and reduce its environmental impact, particularly as DeFi and NFT activity surged.

These challenges set the stage for a major protocol overhaul: Ethereum’s transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) was considered to be one of the most ambitious technical feats in blockchain history. Officially known as “the Merge,” the upgrade combined Ethereum’s execution layer (the mainnet) with the Beacon Chain, which introduced staking-based consensus.

The Merge took place in September 2022 and the environmental impact was immediate: Ethereum’s energy consumption dropped by over 99 percent.

While the Merge had little short-term effect on price, it marked a crucial moment for Ethereum’s long-term viability. At the time of the upgrade, ETH was trading at around US$1,600, which was a sharp decline from its all-time high of US$4,891 in November 2021 during the height of the crypto bull market.

That price peak had been driven by unprecedented network demand as NFTs and decentralized finance exploded in popularity, both largely built on Ethereum. By mid-2022, however, macroeconomic tightening, rising interest rates, and a series of high-profile crypto failures, including the collapse of TerraUSD and the insolvency of major lending platforms, had triggered a broad downturn.

After the Merge, ETH remained volatile. It already lost ground by as much as 70 percent against crypto leader Bitcoin since the Merge, and the introduction of EIP-1559 in 2021 had already created a more deflationary pressure on ETH supply through base fee burns.

Despite this setback, ETH showed relative resilience compared to many altcoins. In 2023, Ethereum hovered mostly between US$1,200 and US$2,100, with price movements closely tracking investor sentiment toward regulatory developments, Bitcoin’s performance, and broader market liquidity. Institutional interest in Ethereum also grew during this period, with more funds launching ETH products and staking services expanding.

Entering 2024, Ethereum gained momentum amid improving macroeconomic conditions and renewed optimism about real-world applications for blockchain technology. The network saw moderate success in sectors like tokenized assets, layer-2 infrastructure, and decentralized identity.

ETH briefly reclaimed the US$4,000 level in early March 2024 before retreating again due to renewed regulatory scrutiny in the US. Despite the pullback, Ethereum remained the second-largest cryptoasset by market capitalization and retained the majority share of developer activity across all chains.

The 2025 Swing

Ethereum 1-year price performance, July 28, 2024 – July 28, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Ethereum, as well as the rest of the crypto landscape, saw a full positive swing in 2025 as regulatory clarity dominated the first half of the year.

In June, the US Senate approved the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act with bipartisan support. President Donald Trump, now serving his second term, publicly backed the bill, calling it “a win for American innovation and financial leadership.”

The GENIUS Act establishes a regulatory framework for US-pegged stablecoins, requiring full reserve backing, independent audits, and federal licensing for large issuers. It also clarifies that qualifying stablecoins are not securities, pulling them out of the SEC’s jurisdiction and instead aligning oversight with banking regulators like the OCC and Federal Reserve.

Crucially, the law defines “payment stablecoins” as a new category of digital cash, and Ethereum has emerged as one of the largest beneficiaries of this policy shift. The majority of dollar-backed stablecoins, which include USDC, USDT, and newer entrants like PayPal USD, are issued and transacted on Ethereum.

The GENIUS Act’s legal recognition of stablecoins has given institutional players more confidence to engage with Ethereum-based infrastructure.

As a result, capital inflows into Ethereum have accelerated, with analysts noting a sharp uptick in demand for ETH as a “platform asset” powering tokenized dollars and digital settlement rails.

ETH’s price also soon followed. Following the Senate’s approval of the GENIUS Act in June 2025, ETH jumped over 25 percent in two weeks, briefly reaching US$3,824 — outperforming Bitcoin and breaking out of a multi-month consolidation range.

The act has also prompted strategic shifts among financial institutions. BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan have expanded their Ethereum-based offerings, including on-chain fund administration, tokenized treasuries, and collateralized lending protocols that rely on smart contracts.

Several US banks are also piloting internal payment rails using tokenized dollars on Ethereum rollups.

What’s next for Ethereum?

Buterin himself has acknowledged that Ethereum’s current roadmap is not the end. Speaking in late 2022 before the Merge, he noted that “Ethereum is 55 percent complete.”

The long-term vision includes greater privacy features, zero-knowledge proofs for secure scalability, and expanding the reach of dApps to a billion users.

As of mid-2025, Ethereum currently trades around US$3,400, buoyed by strong institutional adoption, continued growth of layer-2 networks like Arbitrum and Base, and early signs of real-world asset tokenization gaining traction among banks and fintech firms.

While Ethereum’s price remains well below its 2021 peak, its performance since 2020 reflects growing maturity, with fewer speculative surges and more interest anchored in a more crypto-friendly environment.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Union Pacific to buy Norfolk in $85 billion mega U.S. railroad deal

July 29 (Reuters) – Union Pacific said on Tuesday it would buy smaller rival Norfolk Southern in an $85-billion deal to create the country’s first coast-to-coast freight rail operator and reshape the movement of goods from grains to autos across the U.S.

If approved, the deal would be the largest-ever buyout in the sector and combine Union Pacific‘s stronghold in the western two-thirds of the United States with Norfolk’s 19,500-mile network that primarily spans 22 eastern states.

The two railroads are expected to have a combined enterprise value of $250 billion and would unlock about $2.75 billion in annualized synergies, the companies said.

The $320 per share price implies a premium of 18.6% for Norfolk from its close on July 17, when reports of the merger first emerged.

The companies said on Thursday they were in advanced discussions for a possible merger.

The deal will face lengthy regulatory scrutiny amid union concerns over potential rate increases, service disruptions and job losses. The 1996 merger of Union Pacific and Southern Pacific had temporarily led to severe congestion and delays across the Southwest.

The deal reflects a shift in antitrust enforcement under U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Executive orders aimed at removing barriers to consolidation have opened the door to mergers that were previously considered unlikely.

A Norfolk Southern freight train passes through Homestead, Pa.Gene J. Puskar / AP file

Surface Transportation Board Chairman Patrick Fuchs, appointed in January, has advocated for faster preliminary reviews and a more flexible approach to merger conditions.

Even under an expedited process, the review could take from 19 to 22 months, according to a person involved in the discussions.

Major railroad unions have long opposed consolidation, arguing that such mergers threaten jobs and risk disrupting rail service.

“We will weigh in with the STB (regulator) and with the Trump administration in every way possible,” said Jeremy Ferguson, president of the SMART-TD union‘s transport division, after the two companies said they were in advanced talks last week.

“This merger is not good for labor, the rail shipper/customer or the public at large,” he said.

The companies said they expect to file their application with the STB within six months.

The SMART-TD union‘s transport division is North America’s largest railroad operating union with more than 1,800 railroad yardmasters.

The North American rail industry has been grappling with volatile freight volumes, rising labor and fuel costs and growing pressure from shippers over service reliability, factors that could further complicate the merger.

Union Pacific‘s shares were down about 1.3%, while Norfolk fell about 3%.

The proposed deal had also prompted competitors BNSF, owned by Berkshire Hathaway BRKa.N, and CSX CSX.O, to explore merger options, people familiar with the matter said.

Agents at the STB are already conducting preparatory work, anticipating they could soon receive not just one, but two megamerger proposals, a person close to the discussions told Reuters on Thursday.

If both mergers are approved, the number of Class I railroads in North America would shrink to four from six, consolidating major freight routes and boosting pricing power for the industry.

The last major deal in the industry was the $31-billion merger of Canadian Pacific CP.TO and Kansas City Southern that created the first and only single-line rail network connecting Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.

That deal, finalized in 2023, faced heavy regulatory resistance over fears it would curb competition, cut jobs and disrupt service, but was ultimately approved.

Union Pacific is valued at nearly $136 billion, while Norfolk Southern has a market capitalization of about $65 billion, according to data from LSEG.

(Reuters reporting by Shivansh Tiwary and Sabrina Valle, additional reporting by Abhinav Parmar, Nathan Gomes and Mariam Sunny; Reuters editing by Sriraj Kalluvila, Pooja Desai, Dawn Kopecki and Cynthia Osterma)

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S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.