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April 27, 2025

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Following a strong move the week before, the markets took on a more consolidatory look over the past five sessions. Following ranged moves, the Nifty closed the week on just a modestly positive note. From a technical standpoint, the Nifty tested a few important levels on both daily and weekly charts. However, the trading range narrowed. The Index oscillated in a 517.60-point range over the past week. The volatility surged again; the India VIX spiked 10.93% to 17.16. The headline index went on to close with a modest weekly gain of 187.70 points (+0.79%).

The coming week is shortened, with Thursday being a trading holiday due to Maharashtra Day. We could write about more than one thing that the markets could be worried about over the coming days. It could be the lowered growth forecasts by the IMF that include India and other economies; it could also be the heightened possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. However, all that said, the markets are also at a crucial technical juncture. The Nifty has closed just at the 200-DMA placed at 24050. Besides this, Index has also defended the 50-week MA at 23925. This makes the 23,900-24,050 zone a crucial support area for the Nifty. The consolidation is imminent as the Nifty has rebounded over 11% from its April 07 lows, and minor corrective retracements cannot be ruled out. However, if 23900 is breached, the markets may see some extended retracements.

The weekly RSI is at 55.46; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above its signal line. A candle resembling a Shooting Star has emerged, increasing the likelihood of consolidation. Importantly, any candle formation should not be traded in isolation and must be used in conjunction with the overall technical setup.

The pattern analysis shows that the Nifty has defended the 50-week MA placed at 23925. The Index has also tested a rising trendline resistance; it violated this trendline support on its way down, and now this is expected to act as resistance. Overall, the zone of 24050-23900 is a crucial support zone for Nifty. If the level of 23900 is violated, it can lead to incremental weakness.

Overall, the technical structure of the market suggests that it is time for one to focus more on protecting gains at higher levels. While there could be some reactions by the markets due to external factors, the underlying buoyancy stays intact. The only thing to be cautious about is the natural corrective retracements that the market may experience following the steep upward move that has taken place. Investors must keep fresh purchases should be kept in low-beta stocks that have strong relative strength. With sector rotation visible, a cautious outlook is advised for the day.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty PSU Bank Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Consumption, Commodities, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Metal, and Nifty Bank Indices are also inside the leading quadrant. While the weakening of Relative Momentum is seen in the Metal and Financial Services Index, they are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant.

The Midcap 100 and the Realty Index are showing strong improvement in their Relative Momentum while staying inside the lagging quadrant. The IT and the Auto Index continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant.

The Media Index has rolled inside the Improving quadrant, indicating a likely beginning of its phase of relative outperformance. The Nifty PSE, Energy, and FMCG Indices are also inside the improving quadrant.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

The Zweig Breadth Thrust for the S&P 1500 triggered on Thursday as stocks surged last week. In poker terms, this thrust signals an abrupt participation shift as stocks move from folding to all-in within ten days. A bullish thrust signal is only part of the puzzle. How do we know when this signal fails? Today’s report will look at the ZBT signal in the S&P 1500 and offer an exit strategy. Stick around to the end for an offer to access a fully quantified strategy based on the Zweig Breadth Thrust.

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TrendInvestorPro subscribers have access to three timely reports. The first report/video explains the mechanics of the original NYSE-based Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator and then shows a modern version using S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent. Second, we also presented a trading strategy using ZBT signals for entry and another indicator for exits. The third report/video covers the setups and thrust signals for the percent above SMA indicators. Some of these indicators also triggered this week, but not all. Click here to take a trial and get full access.

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ZBT Triggers for S&P 1500, but Not S&P 500

The first chart shows the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggering bullish as it moved from below -20% to above +23% within ten trading days (blue line). This thrust signal means S&P 1500 advance-decline breadth became oversold with strong selling pressure and then recovered in dramatic fashion with a surge in upside participation. Moreover, this shift occurred within a 10 day window. This reversal of fortune was both sudden and sharp.

Note that the Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered an epic signal in November 2023, and we were on it. See this report (11-November-2023) for details on the original NYSE-based Zweig Breadth Thrust. See this report (18-November-2023) for details on using S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent to create a Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator.  

S&P 500 ZBT Falls Short

The ZBT indicator for the S&P 500 did not trigger. The indicator was below -20% on April 8th and did not make it back above +23% within the 10 day window. In fact, the indicator did not make it back above +23% this week. This shows less upside participation within the S&P 500, and more upside participation within the S&P 1500. Small and mid cap breadth outperformed large-cap breadth this week.

Where’s the Exit?

The Zweig Breadth Thrust is only used for bullish signals, which means chartists must find another indicator to signal a failed thrust. As its name implies, a thrust is a strong upward move that is powerful enough to foreshadow an extended advance. The Zweig Breadth Thrust in November 2023 provides a classic example as SPY continued higher, never looking back. The blue line shows when both the S&P 1500 and S&P 500 ZBT indicators triggered in early November.

Chartists looking for an exit strategy can consider prior support levels based on reaction lows (troughs). The horizontal blue lines show these support levels, starting with the late October 2023 low. SPY forged a reaction low in January 2025, hit a new high in February and then broke support to trigger an exit. Current support levels are based on the April lows.

Chartists looking for a more dynamic approach can consider a trend-following indicator, which we will explore next (subscribers). This strategy is fully disclosed and quantified with backtest results. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access! 

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Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Wednesday (April 23) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$93,529.14 as markets closed for the day, up 2.2 percent in 24 hours. The day’s range has seen a low of US$92,078.75 and a high of US$94,122.31.

Bitcoin performance, April 23, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Fueledby the re-entry of institutional investment, the crypto markets appear to be headed towards a robust recovery; however, the long-term trajectory remains to be seen.

Ethereum (ETH) ended the day at US$1,785.14, a 5.2 percent increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday low of US$1,767.67 and a high of US$1,815.24.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) ended the day valued at US$150.05, up four percent over 24 hours. SOL experienced a low of US$149.31 and peaked at $153.47.
  • XRP traded at US$2.22, reflecting a three percent increase over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday low of US$2.20 and reached its highest point at US$2.29.
  • Sui (SUI) was priced at US$2.98, showing an increaseof 21 percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily low of US$2.89 and a high of US$3.06.
  • Cardano (ADA) was trading at US$0.6981, up 6.3 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest price on Wednesday was US$0.6873, with a high of US$0.7138.

Today’s crypto news to know

Bitcoin becomes fifth largest global asset, overtakes Google

Bitcoin has climbed to a market capitalization of US$1.86 trillion, overtaking Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) to become the world’s fifth-largest asset by market value. The price of Bitcoin surged past US$94,000, helped by easing trade tensions between the US and China and renewed bullish sentiment across tech and risk-on assets.

This marks a symbolic milestone for the cryptocurrency, which has now outpaced several of the world’s most valuable tech giants. Analysts point to Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with macroeconomic tailwinds — such as falling bond yields and speculative interest in risk assets — as drivers of the recent price action.

Its breakout relative to the Nasdaq also suggests growing investor confidence in crypto as a parallel to tech. If Bitcoin maintains this trajectory, some believe it could soon challenge silver’s position as the fourth-largest global asset.

Brandon Lutnick forms new Bitcoin investment vehicle

Brandon Lutnick, son of Howard Lutnick, US secretary of commerce and former Cantor Fitzgerald chair, will launch a listed Bitcoin investment vehicle through a reverse merger with Cantor Equity Partners, a special purpose acquisition company. This is according to a Tuesday (April 22) report from the Financial Times.

The newly established entity, purportedly named Twenty One Capital, will be led by co-founder Jack Mallers, CEO of Bitcoin-focused payments app Strike, and majority owned by Tether (USDT) and cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex. SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) will also own a ‘significant minority’ stake.

Financial Times sources said Tether will contribute at least US$1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin.

The company will also raise US$385 million through a convertible bond and US$200 million via a private equity placement, which it will use to acquire more Bitcoin. Eventually, SoftBank, Tether and Bitfinex’s investments will be converted from Bitcoin into shares in Twenty One Capital, with a price of US$13 per share for the private placement and US$10 per share for the convertible bond.

According to the report, Twenty One Capital will launch with 42,000 BTC, making it the world’s third-largest Bitcoin reserve. “With a visionary leader at the helm and backing from two renowned industry leaders, Twenty One is designed to help investors capture value from Bitcoin’s growing global demand and increasing institutional adoption,” Lutnick said in a press release on Wednesday. The deal values the new company at US$3.6 billion based on an approximate US$85,000 Bitcoin valuation. As of writing, Bitcoin is valued at US$93,808.31.

Trump backs crypto regulation, Trump Media eyes retail crypto products

During a public appearance, US President Donald Trump called for regulatory certainty in the crypto industry and vowed to provide ‘clear rules of the road’ for digital asset innovation.

His statement coincided with Trump Media & Technology Group’s announcement that it will partner with Crypto.com and Yorkville America Digital to launch retail investment products, including crypto-focused ETFs aligned with Trump’s “America First” platform. The planned offerings aim to capitalize on the president’s growing presence in the digital asset space following prior ventures like Trump NFTs and crypto-affiliated partnerships.

While no official ETF filings have been submitted yet, the initiative signals Trump’s commitment to making crypto a policy priority as part of his economic strategy.

Trump to host dinner for $TRUMP token holders

Trump will host a dinner for the top 220 holders of his $TRUMP token in Washington, DC, on May 22.

News of the event sent $TRUMP’s valuation up by over 55 percent in under an hour. $TRUMP reached US$14.44 at around midday on Wednesday, its highest valuation since mid-February. As of writing, $TRUMP is valued at US$13.46.

Top token holders are required to link their wallets for holding verification. The top 25 holders will gather for a private reception with the president before dinner.

Around 40 million $TRUMP tokens, or roughly 20 percent of the tokens’ circulating supply, were unlocked on April 17; they were valued at slightly above US$300 million at the time.

$TRUMP reached an all-time high of US$75.35 on January 19, according to data from CoinMarket Cap. This was followed by an abrupt reversal and steady decline in Q1 to valuations between US$9 to US$7 in April.

Tesla reports US$951 million in Bitcoin holdings despite earnings miss

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) revealed it continues to hold $951 million worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, despite posting weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue of US$19.34 billion.

The automaker’s Bitcoin holdings, totaling 11,509 BTC, remained unchanged during the quarter, with no buy or sell activity recorded. This comes as Bitcoin’s price dipped from late December highs, impacting Tesla’s valuation of its digital asset portfolio under the new Financial Accounting Standards Board rules.

These rules now require corporations to mark digital assets to market on a quarterly basis, increasing transparency but also exposing earnings to crypto market volatility. Tesla’s crypto exposure, while relatively small compared to its core business, still makes it one of the top public holders of Bitcoin globally.

Riot Platforms secures US$100 million credit facility backed by Bitcoin

Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) secured a US$100 million credit facility from Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) on Wednesday using a massive Bitcoin stockpile as collateral.

Data from Bitcoin Treasuries indicates that Riot holds 19,223 BTC valued at approximately US$1.8 billion, making the company the third-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury behind Michael Saylor’s Strategy and MARA Holdings.

“Riot has entered into its first bitcoin-backed facility, which provides us with non-dilutive funding at an attractive cost of financing,” said Jason Les, CEO of Riot, in a press release. “This credit facility is a key part of our efforts to diversify sources of financing to support our operations and strategic growth initiatives, with a view towards long-term stockholder value creation.”

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Friday (April 25) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$95,030.17 as markets closed for the day, up 1.8 percent in 24 hours. The day’s range has seen a low of US$94,367.25 and a high of US$95,563.75.

Bitcoin performance, April 25, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

As the crypto market stages its comeback after weeks below its key resistance level, ARK Invest increased its most optimistic Bitcoin price forecast for 2030 from US$1.5 million to US$2.4 million. The firm attributes this upward revision to growing interest from institutional investors and Bitcoin’s expanding role as ‘digital gold.’ Cointelegraph’s market analysis cites five technical indicators pointing to valuations above US$100,000 by May.

Ethereum (ETH) ended the day at US$1,796.65, a two percent increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday low of US$1,772.18 and a high of US$1,819.79.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) ended the day valued at US$151.24, down 0.1 percent over 24 hours. SOL experienced a low of US$150.90 and peaked at $155.18.
  • XRP traded at US$2.19, reflecting a 0.6 percent decrease over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday low of US$2.19 and reached its highest point at US$2.22.
  • Sui (SUI), this week’s outperformer, was priced at US$3.60, showing an increaseof 8.8 percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily low of US$3.56 and a high of US$3.73. Sui is up by over 67 percent for the week.
  • Cardano (ADA) was trading at US$0.7127, down 1.7 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest price on Friday was US$0.7099, with a high of US$0.7268.

Today’s crypto news to know

ARK Invest sees Bitcoin hitting US$2.4 million by 2030

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has revised its already-optimistic bitcoin forecast, now projecting the asset could reach as high as US$2.4 million by 2030 in its most bullish scenario.

The firm’s April 24 report outlines three trajectories: a bear case of US$300,000, a base case of US$710,000, and a sky-high scenario that factors in growing institutional allocations and rapid expansion of on-chain financial services.

The US$2.4 million target assumes bitcoin captures 6.5 percent of the US$200 trillion global investable asset pool, with sustained 60 percent annual growth in BTC-driven financial infrastructure. National reserves, corporate treasuries, and rising adoption in emerging markets also play critical roles in the model, but ARK identifies institutional capital as the most transformative force.

While skeptics still cite volatility and regulatory uncertainty, ARK argues that BTC’s asymmetric upside—especially amid global monetary shifts—makes it a once-in-a-generation investment thesis.

Saylor predicts BlackRock ETF will eclipse all ETFs within a decade

MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor declared that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) will become the largest ETF in the world within 10 years, following a record-breaking week where U.S. bitcoin ETFs drew US$2.8 billion in net inflows.

IBIT led the pack with US$1.3 billion, lifting its total assets to roughly US$54 billion and driving daily trading volumes above US$1.5 billion. For context, the current largest ETF, Vanguard’s VOO, commands a market cap over US$593 billion—nearly ten times IBIT’s current size.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas acknowledged Saylor’s claim wasn’t farfetched, but said IBIT would need to consistently attract US$3 billion US$4 billion per day to overtake VOO within a decade.

The bold prediction reflects mounting institutional appetite for BTC exposure, but also underlines the extraordinary capital movement that would be required for such a paradigm shift in ETF rankings.

$ TRUMP meme coin rallies after president offers private dinner

Donald Trump’s $TRUMP meme coin surged over 70 percent after the president promised an exclusive gala dinner for the token’s top 220 holders, including a VIP reception at his Washington DC golf club for the top 25.

Launched just before Trump’s January inauguration, the coin has exploded in both market cap—now estimated around US$2.5 billion—and political intrigue, reflecting the former president’s aggressive expansion into crypto.

This latest move aims to blend campaign optics with digital asset hype, positioning Trump not just as a “crypto president,” but as an active participant in speculative retail culture.

Critics have slammed the dinner-for-holders gimmick as a political stunt and potential conflict of interest, while others say it signals a new model of decentralized donor engagement.

Regardless, the announcement caused a major pump and reignited interest across meme coin forums and pro-Trump financial channels.

Swiss central bank rejects Bitcoin in reserves

Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel flatly rejected proposals to include bitcoin in the country’s currency reserves, stating it ‘cannot currently fulfil the requirements’ needed for official holdings.

At the SNB’s annual meeting in Bern, Schlegel cited bitcoin’s extreme volatility and insufficient liquidity as major concerns, making it unsuitable for maintaining the stability and convertibility of the national reserve portfolio.

This comes as activists behind the ‘Bitcoin Initiative’ mount a constitutional referendum campaign that would legally compel the SNB to hold BTC alongside gold. Luzius Meisser, one of the movement’s leaders, argued bitcoin could prove invaluable in a future marked by declining trust in government debt.

The SNB’s resistance, however, signals continued institutional reluctance to enshrine bitcoin as a strategic monetary asset, even in one of the world’s most financially progressive nations.

CME Group to launch XRP futures

The Chicago Mercantile Group (CME) announced plans to launch XRP futures contracts, according to an announcement by the derivatives marketplace on Thursday (April 24).

“As innovation in the digital asset landscape continues to evolve, market participants continue to look to regulated derivatives products to manage risks across a wider range of tokens,” said Giovanni Vicioso, Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products at CME Group. “Interest in XRP and its underlying ledger (XRPL) has steadily increased as institutional and retail adoption for the network grows, and we are pleased to launch these new futures contracts to provide a capital-efficient toolset to support clients’ investment and hedging strategies.”

Pending regulatory approval, participants will be able to trade micro-sized contracts comprising 2,500 XRP and/or large contracts of 50,000 XRP starting on May 19.

Nasdaq calls for consistent digital asset regulation

A letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from the Nasdaq exchange on Friday (April 25) called on regulators to apply the same regulatory standards to digital assets as they do to securities, particularly if these assets function as ‘stocks by any other name.’

Nasdaq asserted that the SEC needs to develop a more distinct classification system for cryptocurrencies, suggesting that some digital assets should be categorized as ‘financial securities.’ The exchange contended that these tokens should continue to be regulated in the same manner as traditional securities, irrespective of their tokenized format.

“Whether it takes the form of a paper share, a digital share, or a token, an instrument’s underlying nature remains the same and it should be traded and regulated in the same ways,” the letter said.

The letter also proposed categorizing some cryptocurrencies as “digital asset investment contracts,” which would still be overseen by the SEC, but subject to “light touch regulation”.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Keep reading…Show less
This post appeared first on investingnews.com