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March 19, 2025

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Riding the Wave: What the Stock Market Rebound Means for Your Investments

Last week, tariff talks, recession fears, and waning consumer sentiment sent stocks lower. This week, the narrative may have shifted, as investors prepare for a macro-filled week and NVIDIA’s annual GTC developers’ conference.

Retail sales data for February came in slightly lower than expectations but better than January’s number. This, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant’s comments about the necessity of the economy undergoing a detox period, may have eased investor worries. All broader equity indexes closed higher on Monday, marking two solid up days in a row.

Next up, we have home prices and new home sales, an important measure of consumer health. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went through a steep downturn as did the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). Consumer spending is a major contributor to GDP growth which is why these two charts should be on every inverter’s radar. While both ETFs saw an upside swing on Monday, it’s not enough to change the trend (see chart below).

FIGURE 1. SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF AND SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF. Both saw a significant slide in value. The upside swing in the last price bar needs to see a lot more momentum and follow through and a confirmed trend reversal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Both ETFs (XHB in the top panel and XRT in the bottom panel) are trading below their 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Monday’s upside move is significant enough to alert investors that perhaps momentum is starting to change. It could be the start of a reversal, a short-term rally that resumes its downtrend, or the beginning of a sideways move. Regardless, it’s worth monitoring the sectors and specific industry groups to get an idea of the general investor sentiment. The StockCharts MarketCarpets can go a long way in giving a big-picture view of the overall market (see below).

FIGURE 2. IT’S MOSTLY A SEA OF GREEN EXCEPT FOR THE HEAVY-WEIGHT LARGE-CAP STOCKS. There was money flowing into the market, especially in the Real Estate, Energy, and Consumer Staples sectors. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Money flowed into the Real Estate, Energy, and Consumer Staples sectors, but all 11 S&P sectors closed in the green. The weakest performer was Consumer Discretionary—you can thank the slide in Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) for that.

All Ears on Fed

Perhaps the most important macro-event this week will be the FOMC meeting. Although an interest rate cut isn’t expected, there’s still uncertainty surrounding tariffs. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell takes the podium on Wednesday, investors will be listening for clues about economic growth and inflation expectations.

Bond prices are showing signs of rising. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which has been trending higher this year, closed modestly higher. Gold and major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether also closed higher.

The Bottom Line

While it’s encouraging to see the stock market show upside momentum after sliding lower for almost a month, take things one day at a time. If you have some cash sitting on the sidelines, be patient and wait for confirming signals of a trend reversal.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Crypto Market Recap: CME Launches SOL Futures Contracts, Ripple Files for Trademark

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Monday (March 17) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at US$84,430.77, a 1.3 percent increase over the past 24 hours. The day’s trading range has seen a high of US$84,583.84 and a low of US$82,669.84.

Despite the recent market downturn, traders are now seeing historical patterns that suggest Bitcoin’s price could rise. Network economist Timothy Peterson said a repeat of Bitcoin’s historical pattern could mean that the token could hit a new ATH, potentially around US$126,000, by June.

Bitcoin performance, March 17, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Ethereum (ETH) is priced at US$1,940.40, marking a 2.9 percent increase over the same period. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of US$1,949.66 and a low of US$1,892.89.

Ether’s price has been stuck below US$2,000 for several reasons that indicate a risk-off sentiment for investors, including declining network activity and decreasing TVL, negative spot Ethereum ETF flows and weak technicals.

An analysis shows the potential of a bear flag forming, which could mean more downside in the coming days. Testing of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade is set to begin on Hoodi today, and the upgrade will be launched 30+ days after Hoodi forks successfully.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) is currently valued at US$129.70, up 2.1 percent over the past 24 hours. SOL experienced a high of US$130.53.61 and a low of US$125.97 on Monday.
  • XRP is trading at US$2.36, reflecting a 2.6 percent increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday high of US$2.38 and a low of US$2.31.
  • Sui (SUI) is priced at US$2.36, showing a 5.2 percent increase over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily high of US$2.37 and a low of US$2.27.
  • Cardano (ADA) is trading at US$0.7251, reflecting a 3.4 percent increase over the past 24 hours. Its highest price on Friday was US$0.7291, with a low of US$0.7150.

Crypto news to know

CME launches Solana futures

The highly anticipated launch of Solana (SOL) futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) saw its inaugural block trade completed on Sunday evening. Digital asset prime broker FalconX announced the completion of the inaugural block trade of Solana (SOL) futures contracts with financial services company StoneX acting as the counterparty.

This transaction occurred amidst a period of notable volatility for SOL. Leading up to March 17, the price of SOL experienced a decline, coinciding with reductions in both network transaction volume and Total Value Locked (TVL).

Additionally, open interest in SOL has decreased significantly, and technical analysis suggests a potential further price drop of up to 35 percent. Analysts have identified the US$120 level as a critical support threshold; a breach of this level could lead to a test of support at US$110.BNY Mellon deepens ties with Circle for stablecoin services

Financial giant BNY Mellon is expanding its services to include digital assets by partnering with stablecoin giant Circle. This collaboration will allow select BNY Mellon clients to send and receive funds to and from Circle, and to buy and sell Circle’s USDC stablecoins. This move signifies the increasing acceptance of stablecoins in traditional finance and demonstrates BNY Mellon’s dedication to innovation and adapting to client needs.

Strategy’s latest Bitcoin purchase

Strategy announced its latest Bitcoin purchase on Monday, acquiring 130 Bitcoins for around US$10.7 million in cash, at an average price of roughly US$82,981 per Bitcoin. This marks the company’s smallest acquisition on record, made using proceeds from the “STRK ATM,” a new Strategy program looking to raise up to US$21 billion in fresh capital to acquire more Bitcoin. Strategy is now just 774 tokens shy of 500,000.

Ripple Labs plans cryptocurrency custody expansion

Ripple Labs, the company behind XRP, appears to be planning an expansion into cryptocurrency custody, according to a trademark application for “Ripple Custody” dated February 25.

The filing also reveals plans for downloadable software to custody and manage various currencies, including crypto and fiat, suggesting Ripple may be developing a cryptocurrency wallet, a service it doesn’t currently offer. Providing wallet services would also generate new revenue for Ripple through transaction fees.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Trump’s Tariffs Disrupting North American Critical Minerals Supply Chains

Underscoring the global need for raw materials, Canada, the US, the UK, the EU and Australia have all established critical minerals lists aimed at streamlining and expediting projects up and down the supply chain.

Reducing reliance on powerhouse critical minerals producer China is a key goal, but as the Trump administration focuses on tariffs and domestic production, it is threatening to disrupt fragile ex-China supply chains.

During a policy outlook panel at this year’s Toronto-based Benchmark Summit, Gracelin Baskaran, director of critical minerals security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Morgan Bazilian, professor at the Colorado School of Mines, discussed the global implications of US tariffs, honing in on critical minerals.

Although inflation is the most obvious consequence of widespread tariffs, Baskaran pointed to longer-term effects.

“We have a tendency in policy to think about the consequence of tariffs being inflation in the short to medium term,’ she commented. “But I think the bigger thing is it also undermines the development of domestic industry.”

Using uranium and the nuclear fuel cycle as an example, Baskaran explained to the audience that tariffs would disincentivize the growth of the domestic nuclear fuel supply chain in the US. In her view, a tariff on uranium would lead to a 2 percent increase in electricity costs, which would have a ripple effect across the supply chain.

“The biggest problem is we’re building our enrichment capabilities in the US, and we need to incentivize sending raw uranium to the US for enrichment. And it undermines that effort, because it’s now 25 percent more expensive,” she said.

As the US pushes for domestic reindustrialization and stronger internal supply chains, tariffs are making it harder to secure critical resources needed for midstream processing — an already unprofitable sector.

While the impact may seem short term, failing to develop a sustainable domestic industry could have lasting consequences, affecting US manufacturing and resource independence for decades, she added.

Copper tariff investigation boosts prices

Deemed essential for widespread electrification, copper is listed on all critical minerals lists.

The US produced 1.1 million metric tons of copper and 890,000 metric tons of refined copper in 2024. However, according to the US Geological Survey, the country also imported 810,000 metric tons of refined copper last year.

In late February, the Trump administration launched a Section 232 investigation into copper imports.

It’s been described by Peter Navarro, trade adviser for the White House, as a move to curb China’s expanding copper sector while addressing vulnerabilities in the US supply chain.

Navarro has stressed the need to restore domestic mining, smelting and refining of copper, citing military and technological applications. News of the investigation and concerns about potential tariffs targeting the sector pushed have copper prices over 9 percent higher, from US$4.50 per pound on February 27 to US$4.94 on March 17.

As Bazilian pointed out, the rise has come in part due to tariff speculation, which has been reflected in a price discrepancy between copper trading on the COMEX and London Metal Exchange.

“You know that delta has increased, so the markets have already priced in the tariffs. That’s what it should be doing,” he said, noting that the markets for some minor metals lack similar mechanisms.

“The minor metals have no such price transparency or discovery,” he noted. ‘But if you have robust markets, they can be a really good bolster against what will always be a rapidly changing and uncertain political landscape.”

Critical minerals deals in jeopardy

Aside from the added costs tariffs are expected create, they are doing damage to the friendly, decades-long relationship between Canada and the US, and concerns about joint projects are coming to the forefront.

In December, the US Department of Defense (DoD) earmarked US$15.8 million to help advance a tungsten project in the Yukon. The deal, which also included C$12.9 million from the Canadian government, was hailed as “close collaboration among like-minded partners” aimed at unlocking critical minerals development.

It is part of the larger US-Canadian Joint Action Plan on Critical Minerals.

‘Tungsten is used in a diverse set of DoD systems and is essential to national security,’ Dr. Laura Taylor-Kale, assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy, said in a press release.

‘The United States is overly reliant on overseas sources of tungsten and a secure North American supply for this commodity will mitigate one of our most critical material risks. This award also highlights the importance of the Department’s partnership with our Canadian allies,’ Taylor-Kale continued.

Bazilian said while government investment is important, it’s not sufficient and in this case has become uncertain.

“There’s been investment in Canada by the Pentagon. I’m not sure that will continue,” he said.

“We have to look at financial mechanisms that help investors look at demand — (they need) some kind of certainty on the demand side, whether it’s an offtake agreement or something else. That’s not going to come from the DoD — while the US DoD is massive, it’s not big enough to to provide all of that downstream,” Bazilian emphasized.

The professor also noted that unclear capital structures and limited access to funds are creating challenges for investment, and without both supply and demand certainty, securing financing will remain difficult.

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Goldman Sachs Kostin Warns of a Potential S&P 500 Correction

Goldman Sachs Kostin analyst has issued a warning that the S&P 500 may be headed for a significant correction. His comments, based on current market data and public economic trends, suggest that heightened market risks could force investors to reconsider their positions.

Rising Market Risks and Overvaluation

According to Goldman Sachs Kostin, current market conditions point to growing volatility. He notes that the S&P 500 appears overvalued when measured against fundamental economic indicators. In addition, factors such as rising interest rates and economic uncertainty have increased the overall market risk. These factors, when combined, can create an environment where a correction is likely.

Investor Caution Amid Volatile Trends

Investors are being urged to remain cautious. Kostin emphasizes that the prevailing market optimism may be unsustainable if key economic data turns negative. Many market experts agree that investor caution is necessary during such periods of volatility. In turn, a pullback in the S&P 500 could offer a correction that might reset market valuations to more sustainable levels.

Implications for the Broader Market

A potential S&P 500 correction could have far-reaching implications for other asset classes. With heightened market volatility, investors might shift their focus to safer assets. Moreover, such a correction may serve as a wake-up call for the broader market, prompting both retail and institutional investors to review their portfolios and risk management strategies.

Conclusion

In summary, public data and current market trends support Kostin’s warning about the S&P 500. Rising market risks, overvaluation, and economic uncertainties are key factors that may trigger a correction. Investors should stay informed and practice caution as they navigate these turbulent market conditions. Ultimately, this forecast calls for a balanced approach to risk and a strategic review of investment positions.

This analysis is based on widely reported public market data and reflects a growing consensus among financial experts. As the market evolves, monitoring these trends closely will be essential for making well-informed decisions.

The post Goldman Sachs Kostin Warns of a Potential S&P 500 Correction appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

Klarna, nearing IPO, plucks lucrative Walmart fintech partnership from rival Affirm

Swedish fintech firm Klarna will be the exclusive provider of buy now, pay later loans for Walmart, taking a coveted partnership away from rival Affirm, CNBC has learned.

Klarna, which just disclosed its intention to go public in the U.S., will provide loans to Walmart customers in stores and online through the retailer’s majority-owned fintech startup OnePay, according to people with knowledge of the situation who declined to be identified speaking about the partnership.

OnePay, which updated its brand name from One this month, will handle the user experience via its app, while Klarna will make underwriting decisions for loans ranging from three months to 36 months in length, and with annual interest rates from 10% to 36%, said the people.

The new product will be launched in the coming weeks and will be scaled to all Walmart channels by the holiday season, likely leaving it the retailer’s only buy now, pay later option by year-end.

The move heightens the rivalry between Affirm and Klarna, two of the world’s biggest BNPL players, just as Klarna is set to go public. Although both companies claim to offer a better alternative for borrowers than credit cards, Affirm is more U.S.-centric and has been public since 2021, while Klarna’s network is more global.

Shares of Affirm fell 13% in morning trading Monday.

The deal comes at an opportune time for Klarna as it readies one of the year’s most highly anticipated initial public offerings. After a dearth of big tech listings in the U.S. since 2021, the Klarna IPO will be a key test for the industry. The firm’s private market valuation has been a roller coaster: It soared to $46 billion in 2021, then crashed by 85% the next year amid the broader decline of high-flying fintech firms.

CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski has worked to improve Klarna’s prospects, including touting its use of generative artificial intelligence to slash expenses and headcount. The company returned to profitability in 2023, and its valuation is now roughly $15 billion, according to analysts, nearly matching the public market value of Affirm.

The OnePay deal is a “game changer” for Klarna, Siemiatkowski said in a release confirming the pact.

“Millions of people in the U.S. shop at Walmart every day — and now they can shop smarter with OnePay installment loans powered by Klarna,” he said. “We look forward to helping redefine checkout at the world’s largest retailer — both online and in stores.”

As part of the deal, OnePay can take a position in Klarna. In its F-1 filing, Klarna said it entered into a “commercial agreement with a global partner” in which it is giving warrants to purchase more than 15 million shares for an average price of $34 each. OnePay is the partner, people with knowledge of the deal confirmed.

For Affirm, the move is likely to be seen as a blow at a time when tech stocks are particularly vulnerable. Run by CEO Max Levchin, a PayPal co-founder, the company’s stock has surged and fallen since its 2021 IPO. The lender’s shares have dipped 18% this year before Monday.

Affirm executives frequently mention their partnerships with big merchants as a key driver of purchase volumes and customer acquisition. In November, Affirm’s chief revenue officer, Wayne Pommen, referred to Walmart and other tie-ups including those with Amazon, Shopify and Target as its “crown jewel partnerships.”

An Affirm spokesman had this statement: “We win business when merchants want superior performance and maximum value, given our underwriting and capital markets advantages. We will continue our long-term strategy of competing on our products and entering into sustainable partnerships.”

The deal is no less consequential to Walmart’s OnePay, which has surged to a $2.5 billion pre-money valuation just two years after rolling out a suite of products to its customers.

The startup now has more than 3 million active customers and is generating revenue at an annual run rate of more than $200 million.

As part of its push to penetrate areas adjacent to its core business, Walmart executives have touted OnePay’s potential to become a one-stop shop for Americans underserved by traditional banks.

Walmart is the world’s largest retailer and says it has 255 million weekly customers, giving the startup — which is a separate company backed by Walmart and Ribbit Capital — a key advantage in acquiring new customers.

Last year, the Walmart-backed fintech began offering BNPL loans in the aisles and on checkout pages of Walmart, CNBC reported at the time. That led to speculation that it would ultimately displace Affirm, which had been the exclusive provider for BNPL loans for Walmart since 2019.

OnePay’s move to partner with Klarna rather than going it alone shows the company saw an advantage in going with a seasoned, at-scale provider versus using its own solution.

OnePay’s push into consumer lending is expected to accelerate its conversion of Walmart customers into fintech app users. Cash-strapped consumers are increasingly relying on loans to meet their needs, and the installment loan is seen as a wedge to also offer users the banking, savings and payments features that OnePay has already built.

Americans held a record $1.21 trillion in credit card debt in the fourth quarter of last year, about $441 billion higher than balances in 2021, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.

“It’s never been more important to give consumers simple and convenient ways to access fair credit at the point of sale,” said OnePay CEO Omer Ismail. “That’s especially true for the millions of people who turn to Walmart every week for everything.”

Next up is likely a OnePay-branded credit card offered with the help of a new banking partner after Walmart successfully exited its partnership with Capital One.

“We’re looking forward to going down this new path where not only can they provide installment credit … but also revolving credit,” Walmart CFO John David Rainey told investors in June.

— CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos and Melissa Repko contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

AI that can match humans at any task will be here in five to 10 years, Google DeepMind CEO says

LONDON — Artificial intelligence that can match humans at any task is still some way off — but it’s only a matter of time before it becomes a reality, according to the CEO of Google DeepMind.

Speaking at a briefing in DeepMind’s London offices on Monday, Demis Hassabis said that he thinks artificial general intelligence (AGI) — which is as smart or smarter than humans — will start to emerge in the next five or 10 years.

“I think today’s systems, they’re very passive, but there’s still a lot of things they can’t do. But I think over the next five to 10 years, a lot of those capabilities will start coming to the fore and we’ll start moving towards what we call artificial general intelligence,” Hassabis said.

Hassabis defined AGI as “a system that’s able to exhibit all the complicated capabilities that humans can.”

“We’re not quite there yet. These systems are very impressive at certain things. But there are other things they can’t do yet, and we’ve still got quite a lot of research work to go before that,” Hassabis said.

Hassabis isn’t alone in suggesting that it’ll take a while for AGI to appear. Last year, the CEO of Chinese tech giant Baidu Robin Li said he sees AGI is “more than 10 years away,” pushing back on excitable predictions from some of his peers about this breakthrough taking place in a much shorter timeframe.

Hassabis’ forecast pushes the timeline to reach AGI some way back compared to what his industry peers have been sketching out.

Dario Amodei, CEO of AI startup Anthropic, told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in January that he sees a form of AI that’s “better than almost all humans at almost all tasks” emerging in the “next two or three years.”

Other tech leaders see AGI arriving even sooner. Cisco’s Chief Product Officer Jeetu Patel thinks there’s a chance we could see an example of AGI emerge as soon as this year. “There’s three major phases” to AI, Patel told CNBC in an interview at the Mobile World Congress event in Barcelona earlier this month.

“There’s the basic AI that we’re all experience right now. Then there is artificial general intelligence, where the cognitive capabilities meet those of humans. Then there’s what they call superintelligence,” Patel said.

“I think you will see meaningful evidence of AGI being in play in 2025. We’re not talking about years away,” he added. “I think superintelligence is, at best, a few years out.”

Artificial super intelligence, or ASI, is expected to arrive after AGI and surpass human intelligence. However, “no one really knows” when such a breakthrough will happen, Hassabis said Monday.

Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicted that AGI would likely be available by 2026, while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said such a system could be developed in the “reasonably close-ish future.”

Hassabis said that the main challenge with achieving artificial general intelligence is getting today’s AI systems to a point of understanding context from the real world.

While it’s been possible to develop systems that can break down problems and complete tasks autonomously in the realm of games — such as the complex strategy board game Go — bringing such a technology into the real world is proving harder.

“The question is, how fast can we generalize the planning ideas and agentic kind of behaviors, planning and reasoning, and then generalize that over to working in the real world, on top of things like world models — models that are able to understand the world around us,” Hassabis said.”

“And I think we’ve made good progress with the world models over the last couple of years,” he added. “So now the question is, what’s the best way to combine that with these planning algorithms?”

Hassabis and Thomas Kurian, CEO of Google’s cloud computing division, said that so-called “multi-agent” AI systems are a technological advancement that’s gaining a lot of traction behind the scenes.

Hassabis said lots of work is being done to get to this stage. One example he referred to is DeepMind’s work getting AI agents to figure out how to play the popular strategy game “Starcraft.”

“We’ve done a lot of work on that with things like Starcraft game in the past, where you have a society of agents, or a league of agents, and they could be competing, they could be cooperating,” DeepMind’s chief said.

“When you think about agent to agent communication, that’s what we’re also doing to allow an agent to express itself … What are your skills? What kind of tools do you use?” Kurian said.

“Those are all elements that you need to be able to ask an agent a question, and then once you have that interface, then other agents can communicate with it,” he added.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS