On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released minutes from its January 28–29 meeting. There weren’t any surprises — the Fed wants to see inflation go lower before cutting interest rates again and would also like to see the impact of the new administration’s policies before making interest rate cut decisions. The takeaway: We won’t see rate cuts in the next Fed meeting.

The broader equity indexes rose after the Fed minutes were released, with the S&P 500 ($SPX) closing at a record high — that’s two consecutive record-high closes. The upside moves may not have been big spikes, but they were enough to show that investor sentiment is bullish and market breadth is improving. Bond prices also rose slightly. 

Sector Strength

The Bullish Percent Index, an amazing indicator that gives you an indication of the internal health of an index or sector, displayed significant gains for several indexes and sectors. The S&P Industrials Sector BPI ($BPINDY) and the S&P Technology Sector BPI ($BPINFO) gained over 5%, the S&P Healthcare Sector BPI ($BPHEAL) gained over 3.50%, and the Nasdaq 100 BPI ($BPNDX) gained almost 3%.

Let’s look at the charts of the Industrials BPI and Technology BPI. The chart of the Industrials BPI (see below) shows that it has just crossed over the 50 level, an indication the sector is gaining bullish strength. The daily chart of the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), a proxy for the Industrial sector, is still trading sideways and its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is still trending lower (see chart below). However, if the BPI of the sector rises higher, there could be an upside move in this sector. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P INDUSTRIALS SECTOR BPI AND INDUSTRIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR ETF. The bullish move isn’t evident in the chart of XLI but if $BPINDY continues to rise, XLI could move toward its all-time high. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Shifting to the daily chart of $BPINFO, it’s clear that BPI is above 60, indicating bulls are in control in this sector. The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is at its all-time high, which could be toppy. A break above this level would be bullish for the Tech sector. 

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF $BPINFO. The Technology sector is more bullish than the Industrials, but it could be getting toppy. A break above prevailing levels could mean the Tech sector still has legs. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Market Participation

Overall, there looks to be broader participation in the stock market. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPXEW) is moving higher (see chart below) but is battling against a resistance level (green line). A break above its current level clears the path for the index to reach its 52-week high. 

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX. The index is moving higher but has hit resistance. A break above this resistance level would confirm broader market participation. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Closing Position

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the stock market, the markets are leaning to the bullish side. We’re seeing upside movement in other asset classes besides the Mag 7 stocks. Monitor the BPI of various indexes and sectors. The simplest way is to follow these steps:

• Download the Essentials ChartPack.
• The US Sectors – Bullish Percent Indexes ChartList contains the BPI of all the sectors.
• The Market & Index Bullish Percent Indexes ChartList contains BPIs of various indexes.
• The US Industries – Bullish Percent Indexes ChartList contains charts of two indexes.
• You can modify these ChartLists by adding/deleting symbols.
• Monitor your ChartLists regularly.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock surged over 50% after reporting earnings last week. The top and bottom line results weren’t stellar. The guidance, however, was enough to fuel a buying frenzy, driving the stock’s rally to a 110% gain this month. But is it sustainable?  Once SMCI pulls back, does it have the technical strength and fundamental conditions to make it a favorable trade?

SMCI set its revenue guidance to $40 billion by 2026, an ambitious target. Many analysts are skeptical, with several maintaining their “underweight” rating. Investors, on the other hand, are jumping in regardless, betting on increased AI infrastructure spending, particularly among giants like Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).

With bulls and bears divided, what do the technicals say? What entry points and targets might the price action give us, if any? 

Let’s get started. Below is a weekly chart detailing SMCI’s two-year price action.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF SMCI STOCK.  The stock saw an impressive rise followed by an equally strong fall. Can it sustain its recovery? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

From May 2023 to March 2024, SMCI saw a jaw-dropping rally of 1,167% from around $10 a share to $120. But then, it all came to a screeching halt as financial and regulatory concerns — specifically allegations of accounting and transaction irregularities — sent the stock into a prolonged tailspin. Over nearly a year of selling pressure, SMCI plummeted, finally hitting rock bottom at $23 in November.

Since then, SMCI has been attempting to recover, twice testing and finally breaking above resistance at the $50 range (see the highlighted yellow range). Interestingly, despite its year-long plunge, it still outperformed its broader industry, represented by the Dow Jones US Computer Hardware Index ($DJUSCR), by $297%.

So, what does the situation look like up close, and might there be an entry point? Let’s now shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. The trend is shifting, so it’s important to watch the key levels and momentum shift via the full stochastic oscillator. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

First, note how the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score jumped well above the bullish 70-line. The shift from extreme technical weakness to technical strength potentially foreshadows a bullish shift in the trend. But it depends on how price responds to a few key levels.

The price looks a bit overextended. While runaway gaps tend not to get filled immediately within a week after the move, there’s still the likelihood that a pullback may occur in the next few sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is well above 80, signaling a potentially overbought condition, although both lines (%K and %D) have been known to occasionally hover in either extreme (above 80 and below 20) for a prolonged period. 

About the stochastic oscillator, note how it signaled the (overbought) limit of each major swing high during the downtrend. If SMCI’s trend shifts upward, you will use the oscillator to anticipate potential swing lows throughout the uptrend. 

Concerning the trend, look at the ZigZag line highlighting the stock’s major swing points. For the bullish reversal to evolve into a full-fledged uptrend, it should remain above the most recent swing low point (see blue dotted line) near $25.  Before that, however, SMCI may rebound at the recently breached resistance level (yellow line). If it drops below this level, the next potential support is around $37.50 (blue line), which has acted as both support and resistance from last September to this February.

At the Close

If you’re considering a position in SMCI, here are your next steps:

1. Add SMCI to your ChartLists.
2. Monitor price action if SMCI pulls back, paying close attention to how it reacts to the key levels mentioned above.

A bounce off support could indicate a favorable entry point. However, if the price falls below $25, the bullish outlook becomes uncertain. A drop below $17.50 would invalidate the bullish thesis entirely.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

I was taught that the most bullish thing the market can do is go up. And while the major equity averages are yet again at or near all-time highs, there are three macro technical signals that I’ve found to be very common at major market tops.

And while the prevalence of these signals does not guarantee a top will occur in February 2025, it tells me that until these conditions change, further upside could be limited from here.

The Magnificent 7 have transformed into the Meager 7. So which sectors or stocks might take the lead in 2025? Join me in our upcoming FREE webcast on Wednesday 2/26 at 1:00pm ET as we explore sector rotation trends, analyze growth vs. value dynamics, and spotlight stocks gaining momentum in Q1. Can’t make it live? No worries! Just register and I’ll send you the replay as soon as it’s ready. Sign up for Finding Value: The Great Rotation of 2025 today!

Let’s go through these signs of the bear, review recent examples, and discuss what we would need to see to reconfirm a new bull phase for stocks.

Bearish Momentum Divergences Suggest Bull Exhaustion

Our first common feature of bull market tops is a surplus of bearish momentum divergences. When prices move higher on stronger momentum, the uptrend is in good shape. But when prices push higher on weaker momentum readings, that suggests a dangerous situation where selling pressure is not yet being reflected in stock prices.

While I could share my chart of the S&P 500, or perhaps Alphabet (GOOGL) which featured a bearish momentum divergence going into its recent high, I’ll go with the daily chart of Synchrony Financial (SYF). Here we can see a clear pattern of higher highs in price from November 2024 through February 2025. But note how the RSI is sloping lower during this period.

When previous leadership names start to flash a pattern of weaker momentum, that illustrates how distribution is occurring which pushes an indicator like RSI lower even though the prices remain in an uptrend. And while this does not necessarily mean a top is in place, it tells me that the current uptrend phase should be brought into question.

Breadth Indicators Have Not Confirmed Recent Highs

Healthy bull markets are marked by improvement in market breadth indicators, as more and more stocks participate in the upside. In recent months, to the contrary, we have seen breadth indicators trending downward while the major averages are making new all-time highs.

Out of the breadth indicators I track on my Market Misbehavior LIVE ChartList, one of my favorites is the simple advance-decline line. And whether we’re looking at the S&P 500 members, the entire New York Stock Exchange, or even mid-caps or small caps, all of these advance-decline lines have been sloping down since November.

To be clear, a breakout in these cumulative advance-decline lines would display a very different picture, representing a broad advance and stronger breadth conditions. But until and unless the A-D lines can propel above their Q4 2024 highs, this remains a market with meager breadth readings.

Dow Theory Non-Confirmation Suggests Limited Upside

Finally, we have an updated version of Charles Dow’s original work comparing different market indexes, a strategy now known as “Dow Theory”. While Dow used the Dow Industrials and Dow Railroads, and though we could use the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports, I prefer to use an equal-weighted S&P 500 versus the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100.

The idea is that if both indexes are making new highs, then the bull market is confirmed. If one is breaking out while the other is now, this represents a “bearish non-confirmation” and suggests limited upside unless that divergence is negated.

The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 did make a new high in February, pushing above its early December peak. The equal-weighted S&P 500, however, is still well below its own top from late November. Similar to the advance-decline analysis above, if both ETFs finally confirm new highs, then that would suggest further upside for the major equity averages. But for now, this non-confirmation has me questioning the sustainability of the current uptrend phase.

To be clear, my Market Trend Model is still bullish on all time frames, confirming that the primary trend remains positive for the S&P 500. The only way to anticipate a potential top is to look for similar conditions experienced in previous major tops. Based on the charts shared today, we may be nearing the exhaustion point of the current bull market phase.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.