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February 25, 2025

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AMZN: A Case Study in Bearish Divergence

In the later stages of a bull market cycle, we will often observe a proliferation of bearish momentum divergences. As prices continue higher, the momentum underneath the advance begins to wane, representing an exhaustion of buyers.

We’ve identified a series of bearish momentum divergences in the early days of 2025, from Magnificent 7 names like Alphabet (GOOGL) to financial institutions including Synchrony Financial (SYF). Today, we’ll focus in on the bearish momentum divergence for Amazon.com (AMZN), which could indicate broader signs of weakness for the consumer discretionary sector as well as for the equity markets as a whole.

The daily chart of AMZN features all the key features of a bearish momentum divergence. Note how the price has remained in a primary uptrend going into this week, marked by a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The most recent all-time high, achieved earlier this month when AMZN pushed briefly above the $240 level, saw the RSI fail to get above the overbought threshold.

The Magnificent 7 have transformed into the Meager 7. So which sectors or stocks might take the lead in 2025? Join me in our upcoming FREE webcast on Wednesday 2/26 at 1:00pm ET as we explore sector rotation trends, analyze growth vs. value dynamics, and spotlight stocks gaining momentum in Q1. Can’t make it live? No worries! Just register and I’ll send you the replay as soon as it’s ready. Sign up for Finding Value: The Great Rotation of 2025 today!

In a healthy bullish trend, we would expect higher price highs to be supported by strong momentum readings, indicating an influx of buying power and investor optimism.  When new highs are matched with lower RSI levels, that suggests a lack of buying power and evaporating investor optimism.

Once a bearish momentum divergence is confirmed, we can monitor the most recent swing low to confirm a potential breakdown as the price follows through after the divergence. After reaching that support level around $215 last Friday, we have seen AMZN push below this support level during the trading day on Monday. A confirmed close below this support level could represent a meaningful breakdown and a “change of character” for one of the top weights in the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY).

Any time I see a potential pattern on the daily chart, I remember the classic market maxim, “When in doubt, zoom out!” The weekly chart shows how the most significant pullbacks in 2023-2024 were marked by a sell signal from the weekly PPO indicator.

Over the last two weeks, we’ve recognized a similar bearish pattern to those previous pullbacks, both of which ended with AMZN finding support at the 40-week moving average. That would align closely with the 200-day moving average on the daily chart, which currently sits just below the $200 level.

When I see a bearish momentum divergence appear on a chart like Amazon, I’ve learned to put that chart on a ChartList of potential reversal names, and monitor those tickers for signs of a breakdown of support. Based on our analysis of the daily and weekly charts of AMZN, this leading internet retailer could be signaling a key breakdown going into March.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DP Trading Room: Defensive Sectors Lead the Pack

The complexion of the market is changing. Aggressive sectors which have led the market higher are now beginning to show signs of strain as momentum slowly dissipates and prices turn lower. However, defensive sectors (XLP, XLRE, XLV and XLU) are now leading the market. Typically when this occurs the market is at a top. Given the look of the SPY, we could very well have hit a major market top.

Carl started off the trading room with a review of the DP Signal Table and Bias Table which are still looking bullish overall.

He then gave us his analysis of the market in general looking at not only the SPY, but Bitcoin, Gold, Gold Miners, the Dollar, Bonds and more!

Once the market review was complete, Carl walked us through the Magnificent Seven charts, both daily and weekly. There is clear weakness showing through on most of these stocks and that doesn’t bode well for the market as a whole.

Erin took over and discussed sector rotation, specifically the gains in defensive sectors. Aggressive sectors are topping and looking very weak. Energy has some potential, but it still has to figure out what “drill, baby, drill” will mean for Crude Oil related stocks.

Finally, Erin covered viewer symbol requests which included SMCI, MSTR, PLTR and JPM.

Join us LIVE in the free DP Trading Room on Mondays at Noon ET by signing up ONCE at https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_D6iAp-C1S6SebVpQIYcC6g#/registration

Schedule:

01:13 DP Signal Tables

03:35 Market Overview

15:04 Magnificent Seven

21:25 Palantir (PLTR) and Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (PSP)

27:04 Sector Rotation

31:43 Symbol Requests

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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Metallurgical Drilling Confirms Historic Grades at the Byro REE / Li Project

Octava Minerals Limited (ASX:OCT) (“Octava” or the “Company”), a Western Australia focused explorer of the new energy metals antimony, REE’s, Lithium and gold, is pleased to report that laboratory assays have now been received from the two metallurgical core drillholes at the Byro REE’s / Li Project in the Gascoyne Region of Western Australia.

Highlights

  • Assay results received from metallurgical drilling at the Byro REE & Li Project confirm historic REE / Li mineralisation intercepts.
  • Intercepts of over 50m from surface with grades including 500ppm Total Rare Earth Oxides (TREO) with 20% magnetic REE’s, 375ppm Lithium Oxide (Li2O) and 523ppm Vanadium Pentoxide (V2O5).
  • Mineralisation has been intercepted in historic drilling over 30km of strike.
  • The drilling was to provide fresh samples of the Byro black shale to undergo metallurgical extraction testwork.

Octava’s Managing Director Bevan Wakelam stated;

”Octava is investigating the potential for Australia’s first, large scale, low cost sedimentary basin deposit of REE’s, lithium and base metals. Metal extraction from black shales is a proven, low- cost technology used in other operations around the world. We will commence initial metallurgical testwork to determine the viability of extracting these metals from the black shale at Byro. We look forward to providing further updates as this work proceeds.

The Byro Project is located on the Byro Plains of the Gascoyne Region, Western Australia, 220km south-east of Carnarvon and consists of two granted Exploration Licences – E 09/2673 and E 09/2674 – totalling 798 km2. The Byro Project also has Native Title agreements in place. Nearby infrastructure includes accessibility to a commercial port (Geraldton) and power from the NW gas pipeline and future potential access to Western Australian government proposed green energy sites.

Two metallurgical HQ3 coreholes were drilled for a total of 204m. The holes were drilled adjacent to previously drilled RC holes to confirm mineralisation and to provide fresh sample material for metallurgical testwork.

The Byro project lies at the centre of the Permian Byro Sub-basin of the Carnarvon Basin. The Byro Group hosts sedimentary packages of sandstones, siltstones and mudstones, including black shales and coal seams. The dominant unit in the tenure is the Bulgadoo shale, which consists of banded carbonaceous shale and arenite, containing beds of enriched pyrite, bivalves and bryozoans.

The black shales in the Byro sub basin appear to have formed a metal sink that contains large volumes of anomalous REE, Li and base metals. The source of the metals at Byro is likely the Archean basement rocks of the Yilgarn Craton located ~40km to the east. The REE host rocks at Byro have been transported to their current location, unlike typical REE clay exploration targets in Australia which are formed in situ, from weathered granitic basement rocks.

Permian Black shales are known worldwide for their potential to host enriched poly-metallic deposits. These deposits contain considerable volumes of lower concentration resources of base metals, rare earths, lithium and other strategic minerals. They offer the opportunity for large-scale, low-cost mining operations capable of supplying the metals for a number of years. Octava is examining the black shales at the Byro project for the same potential.

Click here for the full ASX Release

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Crypto Market Recap: Bybit Suffers US$1.5 Billion Hack, Saylor’s Strategy Buys More Bitcoin

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Monday (February 24) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at US$94,006.38 reflecting a decrease of 1.9 percent over the past 24 hours. The day’s trading range has seen a high of US$95,658 and a low of US$93,775.

Ethereum (ETH) is priced at US$2,640.58, marking a decline of 5.58 percent over the same period. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of US$2,678 and a low of US$2,633.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) is currently valued at US$151.06, down 9.8 percent over the past 24 hours. SOL experienced a high of US$158 and a low of US$150 during Monday’s trading session.
  • XRP is trading at US$2.43, reflecting a 4.8 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday high of US$2.48 and a low of US$2.40.
  • Sui (SUI) is priced at US$3, showing a 9.9 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily high of US$3.19 and a low of US$2.98.
  • Cardano (ADA) is trading at US$0.7176, reflecting a 6.4 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. Its highest price on Monday was US$0.7327, with a low of US$0.7133.

Crypto news to know

Hackers steal US$1.5 billion from Bybit in ‘biggest digital heist ever’

Cryptocurrency exchange Bybit has suffered what is believed to be the largest digital theft in history, losing US$1.5 billion worth of Ethereum to hackers this past Friday (February 21).

The Dubai-based platform reported that the attacker gained access to one of its Ethereum wallets during a routine transfer between cold and warm storage, successfully moving the funds to an unknown address.

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou has reassured users that the exchange remains solvent and has enough funds to cover losses, ensuring all customers are fully reimbursed.

However, the platform has experienced a surge in withdrawal requests, causing processing delays. In response, Bybit has offered a 10 percent reward — up to US$140 million — for assistance in recovering the stolen funds.

Some security analysts suspect the involvement of North Korean state-backed hacker group Lazarus, known for previous large-scale crypto heists.

Ethena raises US$100 million for institutional token

Bloomberg reported on Monday that Ethena, the issuer of stablecoin USDe and token ENA, has raised US$100 million in a private sale of ENA to fund a new token aimed at institutional investors.

This new token will be built on Ethena’s blockchain and will be similar to USDe, but with added features to comply with financial regulations, potentially paving the way for greater institutional adoption of Ethena’s products.

Strategy’s Bitcoin stockpile nears 500,000

Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, completed the sale of US$2 billion worth of convertible senior notes due in 2030 in a private offering to institutional investors, the company announced on Monday.

As expected, CEO Michael Saylor also disclosed the acquisition of 20,356 additional Bitcoin for roughly US$1.99 billion, bringing the company’s total holdings to 499,096 acquired for US$33.1 billion, or US$66,357 each. Rounding the current Bitcoin price down to US$94,000, the holdings are worth about US$46.92 billion.

Nasdaq seeks to list Hedera ETF

The Nasdaq has applied to list an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to hold the Hedera Network’s native token, HBAR, according to a 19b-4 form filed with the US Securities and Commission Exchange on Monday.

The token is one of a very small number of cryptocurrencies starting the week in the black, up 0.3 percent in 24 hours to US$0.21 at the time of this writing. If approved, the ETF would be managed by Canary Capital, which filed to list a proposed Canary HBAR ETF in November.

Citadel Securities eyes increased crypto market involvement

Sources for Bloomberg said financial firm Citadel Securities is looking to increase its involvement in the cryptocurrency market by joining the roster of approved market makers on major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance and Crypto.com. If approved, the firm plans to set up international teams, according to people familiar with the matter.

Testing begins for Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade

Ethereum will initiate the testing phase of its latest upgrade, Pectra, on the Holesky testnet at epoch 115968 on Monday, marking another advancement in Ethereum’s ongoing development.

The Pectra upgrade is designed to enhance the network’s scalability, security and overall efficiency, addressing some of the current limitations of the Ethereum blockchain such as transaction fees and network congestion.

This testing phase will help developers identify potential issues before the upgrade is deployed on the Ethereum mainnet, which is scheduled for later this year.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Could Bitcoin Reach $200000? Market & Expert Insights

Bitcoin attracts bold predictions. Recent forecasts show that this top cryptocurrency may soon hit Bitcoin Reach $200000. Many trusted sources, including Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk, Bloomberg, and CNBC, have reported this forecast. This public news reflects rising optimism among market experts amid changing economic conditions.

Market Sentiment and Economic Drivers

Many analysts believe that economic uncertainty and rising prices create a strong chance for Bitcoin to serve as a safe asset. Investors now see Bitcoin as a reliable store of value. They shift funds to cryptocurrencies when they lose trust in traditional assets. In addition, new regulations in key markets push both large and small investors to spread their money across various assets.

Technical Analysis and Price Trends

Technical data supports a potential price surge. Long-term charts show an upward trend, while short-term drops offer good buying points. Trading volumes and network activity grow each day. Experts point to a limited supply and high demand as key reasons that Bitcoin Reach $200000 upto.

Investor Implications and Risk Management

Investors must stay alert in this volatile market. They should manage risk by diversifying their portfolios. Many experts advise reviewing holdings and allocating funds wisely. They also recommend keeping up with the latest market news and technical signals to guide decisions.

Conclusion

This forecast that Bitcoin may reach $200,000 comes from strong market sentiment, positive technical trends, and a unique economic climate. However, investors face a volatile market that demands caution. Experts urge both individual and institutional investors to monitor these trends closely and prepare for various market moves.

While reaching $200,000 is not guaranteed, this forecast offers valuable insight into the ever-changing crypto market. It shows that the market can shift quickly and that informed decisions are key. Investors should act wisely and stay updated on news and trends. By doing so, they can protect their investments and uncover new opportunities in the fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies.

The post Could Bitcoin Reach $200000? Market & Expert Insights appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

Starbucks to lay off 1,100 corporate workers as sales sag

Starbucks will lay off 1,100 corporate employees and will not fill several hundred other open positions, the coffee chain’s CEO Brian Niccol said Monday.

The cuts will not affect workers at the company’s cafes.

In a message to corporate employees, Niccol said Starbucks is “simplifying our structure, removing layers and duplication and creating smaller, more nimble teams.”

“Our intent is to operate more efficiently, increase accountability, reduce complexity and drive better integration,” Niccol wrote. “All with the goal of being more focused and able to drive greater impact on our priorities.” 

The layoffs come as Starbucks tries to draw coffee drinkers back to its cafes after same-store sales declined for four straight quarters. As customers turn to cheaper rivals in Starbucks’ two largest markets, the U.S. and China, Niccol has tried to revamp operations since he took the helm of the company last year, including by speeding up service.

Starbucks had about 16,000 employees who work outside of store locations as of last year. The cuts will affect people who work in corporate support, but not roasting, manufacturing, warehousing and distribution.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Apple boosts U.S. investment plans with $500 billion pledge amid Trump tariff threat

Apple on Monday reaffirmed a commitment to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S. over the coming years amid pressure from President Donald Trump and the growing threat of his tariffs

The tech giant said it planned to spend $500 billion over the next five years in the United States, with intentions to hire 20,000 new workers and produce AI servers.

The plans include a server factory in Houston slated to open in 2026 and a manufacturing academy in Detroit. The company also said data centers in Arizona, California, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon and Washington would see expansions from the investment plans.

Monday’s move is Apple’s latest splashy announcement about investing in the United States, making it an acceleration of existing plans.

The company announced in 2021 that it was planning to invest $430 billion domestically over the next five years. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, Apple said it would make a $350 billion ‘contribution’ to the American economy over a stretch of five years, including the creation of 20,000 jobs.

Apple also confirmed Monday that an Arizona-based Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. facility, which began development under the Biden administration, had started producing chips for it there — news that media had previously reported.

Trump sought to take credit for the latest announcement — and seemed to tip it last week shortly after meeting with Apple CEO Tim Cook and implied the trade duties he has threatened on a host of imports played a role.

“They don’t want to be in the tariffs,” Trump said last week, adding that Cook had halted plans to build two facilities in Mexico, an assertion Apple has not confirmed.

In a Truth Social post Monday, Trump cited ‘faith in what we are doing’ as the reason for Apple’s announcement.

In a note to investors, analysts at UBS cast some doubt about whether Apple can actually deploy $500 billion in the U.S. in the time frame it laid out, citing the company’s overwhelming reliance on suppliers outside the U.S. and the fact that it has historically lagged other large tech firms in making large capital expenditures.

‘While the headline figure on the surface is a large number, we believe it lacks substance at this juncture based on history,” the analysts wrote.

Apple’s playbook for avoiding tariffs appears to track closely with its strategy during the first Trump administration, when it allowed the president to take credit for a plant that had been making Mac computers in Texas for at least three years before he took office. Like other products Apple makes in the United States or says it intends to, the Mac made in Texas is not one of its mainstream models. Apple’s key revenue-generating products like the iPhone are all still manufactured outside of the country.

Apple and Cook have also gone a step further in Trump’s second term, both donating to Trump’s inauguration fund. Cook attended Trump’s swearing-in ceremony on Capitol Hill.

Apple said the new jobs it plans to hire for will be primarily related to research and development, engineering and AI. It also said it plans to expand investment in an existing advanced manufacturing fund.

“We are bullish on the future of American innovation, and we’re proud to build on our long-standing U.S. investments with this $500 billion commitment to our country’s future,” Cook said in a statement. “And we’ll keep working with people and companies across this country to help write an extraordinary new chapter in the history of American innovation.”

Apple shares were little changed in early Monday trading.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS