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February 18, 2025

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Shifting Sands in the Top Five

At the end of last week, there were some interesting shifts in sector positioning, though the composition of the top five remained unchanged. Let’s dive into the details and see what the Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) tell us about the current market dynamics.

At the close of trading on Valentine’s Day (February 14th), we saw a bit of a love-hate relationship playing out among the sectors. Here’s how they stacked up:

  1. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  2. (1) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  3. (2) Financials – (XLF)*
  4. (5) Technology – (XLK)*
  5. (4) Industrials – (XLI)*
  6. (6) Utilities – (XLU)
  7. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
  8. (9) Real Estate – (XLRE)*
  9. (10) Energy – (XLE)*
  10. (8) Health Care – (XLV)*
  11. (11) Materials – (XLB)

Communication Services took the top spot from Consumer Discretionary, pushing that sector down to #2 and Financials down to #3. Technology and Industrials swapped places four and five.

We also saw some reshuffling in the bottom half of the ranking. Utilities (XLU) held steady, while Consumer Staples (XLP) maintained its #7 spot. Real Estate (XLRE) and Energy (XLE) each climbed a rung, landing at #8 and #9, respectively. Health Care (XLV) tumbled from #8 to #10, and Materials (XLB) remained firmly planted in the basement at #11.

Weekly RRG: A Familiar Picture

The weekly RRG paints a similar picture to last week, with a few notable developments:

Consumer Discretionary still has the highest reading but is heading south inside the leading quadrant. Communication Services is losing some momentum but maintaining its relative strength. Despite being in the weakening quadrant, Financials has hooked back up—a positive sign. Technology is almost stationary, teetering on the edge of improving and leading.

Perhaps the most intriguing action is happening in the lagging quadrant, where most tails hook up slightly. While not all have achieved a positive heading yet, it’s a sign of potential improvement on the horizon.

Health Care is the lone wolf in the improving quadrant, a positive development. However, its low reading on the JdK RS-Ratio scale suggests it still has some work.

Daily RRG: Tech’s Time to Shine?

Switching gears to the daily RRG, we get a clearer picture of why some sectors are jockeying for position:

Technology flexes muscles with a strong, long tail in the improving quadrant.

Consumer Discretionary is heading in the opposite direction, moving into lagging territory.

Communication Services is holding onto its relative strength despite losing some momentum.

Financials, Health Care, and Materials are all in the lagging quadrant with negative headings.

Utilities are showing apparent strength, moving into the leading quadrant with gusto.

Spotlight on the Top Five

Let’s get into the trenches and examine each of our top performers:

Communication Services (XLC)

XLC is fulfilling expectations by emerging from its flag consolidation pattern and moving towards new all-time highs. It is also enhancing its standing on price and relative charts, which are bullish indicators of the sector’s ongoing supremacy.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

XLY is indicating some concerning trends. It has established a possible double top, which will be validated if the price falls below $218, the low from five weeks ago. The relative strength line mirrors this formation, and the RRG lines are declining. Considering its earlier strength, a notable decline may take a while to materialize, but it is certainly one to monitor closely.

Financials (XLF)

Financials are holding their ground admirably. Last week saw a break above the previous high on a closing basis — something that didn’t happen in the two weeks prior. The raw RS line also pushes against (and possibly above) its previous high. If this improvement continues, expect Financials to maintain its top-five status.

Technology (XLK)

Tech is making a comeback, overtaking Industrials for the #4 spot. Price-wise, we’re still grappling with overhead resistance around $242, but we closed at the week’s high — a positive sign. The relative strength is moving higher off the lower boundary, and RRG lines continue to climb (with a slight dip in momentum). I’m keeping a close eye on that $242 level — a break above could signal the start of a new leg up for the sector.

Industrials (XLI)

Industrials are living up to our expectations as the weakest link in the top five. It’s dropped from #4 to #5, thanks to continued weakness in relative strength. The RRG lines point lower, suggesting it’s only a matter of time before XLI drops out of the top five. Price-wise, we’re still within the rising channel, but a lower high has formed — not a great sign. Support comes in around $134 (rising support line) and $132-130 (late December low). A break below these levels could trigger a more significant decline.

Portfolio Performance Update

Despite the changing conditions, our RRG portfolio remains robust. Since its inception, it has achieved a 4.88% gain, while the SPY benchmark has only increased by 4.29%, resulting in an outperformance of 59 basis points.

#StayAlert and enjoy your long weekend. –Julius


Augustus Minerals (ASX: AUG; “Augustus” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the results from the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms to generate and predict gold targets within the Company’s Music Well project.

SensOre consultants have applied artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and other processing techniques using both public and proprietary datasets over the Music Well Project.

  • Cutting edge AI/ML algorithms targeting areas with minimal outcrop or under cover.
  • Integration of geological, geochemical and geophysical data sets into the AI process to define digital mineralisation fingerprints and generate AI-enhanced gold discovery predictions.
  • The AI SensOre study concluded that “Application of ML algorithms were found to model +1m oz Au potential with a high degree of predictability, and a total of 18 targets were identified within the Music Well project”:
    • Target 1 has the highest priority and is in the central north of the project with a strike length of 8km.
    • Target 1 trends NNW parallel to the general geological fabric as well as being intersected by several WNW trending cross structures.
    • Target 2 is located 4km east of the Wonder Deeps mine of Northern Star and is adjacent to a parallel WNW trending structure hosting Vault Minerals Great Western mine.
    • Target 2 is 1.4km in strike and 800m wide.
    • No historic drilling has been recorded at any of the target areas, highlighting the underexplored nature of the Music Well project.
  • Next Steps
    • Geological mapping and sampling over these new targets are scheduled for the next two weeks to gain further insight into the new targets.
    • Results from the January rock chip sampling program are expected shortly.

Andrew Ford, GM Exploration

“The work by SensOre has focussed our attention from areas of outcrop, toward regional targets which are obscured in many cases by thin cover and sheetwash. By applying groundbreaking technologies such as artificial intelligence has enabled the rapid prioritization of multiple targets. The definition of targets reflecting a specific geophysical and geochemical response which also focuses on key mineralised structural trends provides encouragement as to the robust nature of the targeting process”.

Background:

Augustus Minerals Limited( ASX: AUG) holds the exploration licenses and applications comprising the Music Well Gold Project (“Project”) located 35km north of Leonora in the Leonora/Laverton Greenstone Belt of Western Australia.

Music Well comprises ten exploration licences covering an area of 1,345km2, making the Project one of the largest exploration packages in the region (Figures 1 and 2).

The outstanding gold endowment of the Leonora-Laverton District of >28M ounces3 is illustrated by the numerous operating gold mines including the Darlot Gold Mine (~12km to the north), the King of the Hills Mine (~20km to the west), the Leonora Gold Camp (~30km to the southwest), and the Thunderbox Gold Mine (~20km to the west).

AI Enhanced Gold Exploration

The Company commenced a gold targeting exercise with SensOre_X Pty Ltd (SensOre) in November 2024, using their Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies to allow predictive analytics to generate targets for discovery of gold systems at the Music Well project.

SensOre is an industry leading technology services provider of AI/ML applications to the minerals exploration and mining industry. SensOre’s technologies have been developed over many years and involve the application of new computer assisted statistical approaches and ML techniques across the mineral cycle to provide the next generation of exploration discoveries. SensOre aims to become the top global minerals targeting company through deployment of big data, AI/ML technologies and geoscience expertise.

The Company committed to this new technological approach to gold exploration at Music Well to reinforce the existing generative exploration undertaken by the Company and deliver new “out of the box” targets for gold mineralisation over the project area, which has minimal historic exploration and limited outcrop.

In addition, the Company has inherited a large and impressive database of geological, geochemical, and geophysical information since acquiring Music Well Gold Mines Pty Ltd in late 2024. Having a variety of good quality datasets is considered a key attribute for the application of the AI/ML technology to accelerate the discovery process. The data layers used in the AI/ML processing include results from 2,478 Ultra fine fraction soil samples, 18,042 soil samples and 155 rock chip samples, in addition to detailed aeromagnetic and gravity data.

The Music Well project is contained within an area of influence (AOI) where a “data cube” was constructed covering the four 100k scale regional map sheets containing 80m x 80m cells. This data cube contains 1,440,000 cells x 1,618 variables where the AI/ML technology was applied.

The application of the machine learning approach applied by SensOre to the database of geochemical, geological and geophysical information compiled over the Company’s AOI has demonstrated the highly gold prospective nature of the Music Well project. Application of the machine learning algorithms modelled the probability of gold systems within the AOI and more specifically the Music Well project. This required 107 variables for discrimination that were applied to the 80m by 80m cells within the AOI.

Click here for the full ASX Release



This post appeared first on investingnews.com

A deadly mine collapse in Western Mali’s Kayes region has left at least 40 people dead.

The BBC reported that the accident occurred on Saturday (February 15) near the towns of Kéniéba and Dabia, areas known for their rich gold deposits, but also notorious for informal, unregulated mining.

This disaster marks the second fatal mining accident in the country in just three weeks.

The victims were reportedly scavenging in open-pit mines left by industrial miners when the ground caved in. These informal miners, driven by economic hardship, often seek remnants of gold in unstable abandoned mine shafts.

Rescue teams have retrieved many of the bodies, though reports from local authorities continued to vary as of the time of this writing on Monday (February 17), with some sources reporting as many as 48 deaths.

The tragic incident comes as Mali struggles to manage its mining industry and regulate informal operations.

Despite being one of Africa’s largest gold producers, the country is facing significant safety challenges due to inadequate oversight and unsafe mining practices — the result of poverty in local communities. Just weeks ago, at least 10 people were killed in a separate mining disaster when a tunnel flooded in the central region of Mali.

At the same time, the country’s formal mining industry is grappling with changing government regulations.

Mali’s military-led government is currently in a dispute with Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX,NYSE:GOLD), one of the country’s largest foreign investors. In January, Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine was placed under a temporary suspension after the Malian government blocked gold shipments and seized 3 metric tons of gold worth approximately US$245 million.

The Malian government is seeking to increase its share of revenue from foreign mining operations, a stance that has drawn criticism from companies like Barrick and has led to tensions between the Canadian firm and the government.

Barrick has stated that it will resume operations at Loulo-Gounkoto once the shipment ban is lifted, but the political environment in Mali continues to create uncertainty for foreign investors.

Barrick’s CEO, Mark Bristow, has been outspoken about how the dispute is affecting the company’s operations, noting that Barrick has paid substantial taxes to the government in recent years, including US$460 million in 2024 alone.

The collapse in Kayes, which occurred at an abandoned site once operated by a Chinese company, also brings attention to the role of foreign investors in Mali’s mining sector.

China has been a major player in developing Mali’s resources, particularly gold, and companies from the country have faced criticism for their environmental practices and labor conditions.

While Chinese investments have improved infrastructure, including roads and transportation, concerns over environmental impact and the level of oversight remain.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Bitcoin attracts bold predictions. Recent forecasts show that this top cryptocurrency may soon hit Bitcoin Reach $200000. Many trusted sources, including Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk, Bloomberg, and CNBC, have reported this forecast. This public news reflects rising optimism among market experts amid changing economic conditions.

Market Sentiment and Economic Drivers

Many analysts believe that economic uncertainty and rising prices create a strong chance for Bitcoin to serve as a safe asset. Investors now see Bitcoin as a reliable store of value. They shift funds to cryptocurrencies when they lose trust in traditional assets. In addition, new regulations in key markets push both large and small investors to spread their money across various assets.

Technical Analysis and Price Trends

Technical data supports a potential price surge. Long-term charts show an upward trend, while short-term drops offer good buying points. Trading volumes and network activity grow each day. Experts point to a limited supply and high demand as key reasons that Bitcoin Reach $200000 upto.

Investor Implications and Risk Management

Investors must stay alert in this volatile market. They should manage risk by diversifying their portfolios. Many experts advise reviewing holdings and allocating funds wisely. They also recommend keeping up with the latest market news and technical signals to guide decisions.

Conclusion

This forecast that Bitcoin may reach $200,000 comes from strong market sentiment, positive technical trends, and a unique economic climate. However, investors face a volatile market that demands caution. Experts urge both individual and institutional investors to monitor these trends closely and prepare for various market moves.

While reaching $200,000 is not guaranteed, this forecast offers valuable insight into the ever-changing crypto market. It shows that the market can shift quickly and that informed decisions are key. Investors should act wisely and stay updated on news and trends. By doing so, they can protect their investments and uncover new opportunities in the fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies.

The post Could Bitcoin Reach $200000? Market & Expert Insights appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

The new year for brick-and-mortar retailers is picking up right where 2024 left off, as a slew of stalwart brands are set to shutter dozens of store locations amid shifting consumer patterns.

The latest crop of closures are being led by fabrics and crafts retailer Joann, which said this week it was shuttering 500 locations in 49 states as part of a second go-around in Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.

“This was a very difficult decision to make, given the major impact we know it will have on our team members, our customers and all of the communities we serve,’ the company said in a statement. ‘A careful analysis of store performance and future strategic fit for the company determined which stores should remain operating as usual at this time. Right-sizing our store footprint is a critical part of our efforts to ensure the best path forward for Joann.”

Joann first filed for bankruptcy protection last March to address a heavy debt load, shrinking revenues and what it described as an “uncertain consumer environment.” It announced another Chapter 11 filing last month, this time with the goal of finding an entity to acquire all of its assets.

‘The last several years have presented significant and lasting challenges in the retail environment, which, coupled with our current financial position and constrained inventory levels, forced us to take this step,’ it said in a release accompanying its latest filing.

Meanwhile, JCPenney separately said this week it was closing a handful of stores, with an initial batch of eight to go under depending on “expiring lease agreements” and “market changes.” 

“While we do not have plans to significantly reduce our store count, we expect a handful of JCPenney stores to close by mid-year,” the company said in a statement.

JCPenney emerged from bankruptcy in 2020; last month, it announced it was merging with the group that operates other retail brands, including Aéropostale and Brooks Brothers.

In the first nine months of its current fiscal year, JCPenney’s adjusted earnings tumbled nearly 64% to $66 million.

Those results reflect an overall physical retail environment that continues to deteriorate. According to Coresight Research, as many as 15,000 retail locations could close this year, nearly doubling the count for 2024, which were already the most since 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Inflation and a growing preference among consumers to shop online to find the cheapest deals took a toll on brick-and-mortar retailers in 2024,” Coresight Research CEO Deborah Weinswig said in a release last month. “Last year we saw the highest number of closures since the pandemic. Retailers that were unable to adapt supply chains and implement technology to cut costs were significantly impacted, and we continue to see a trend of consumers opting for the path of least resistance.’

She said customers are running out of patience for stores that are ‘constantly disorganized, out of stock, and that deliver poor customer service.’

‘We have seen Shein and Temu capture market share as consumers choose to shop online to save time, money, and avoid frustration,’ she said.

In the first weeks of 2025, Coresight was already tracking about 30% fewer openings and more than triple the number of closures compared with the same period last year.

Other closures announced late last year or planned for 2025 include Party City, Big Lots, Kohl’s and Macy’s.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Italo Medelius-Marsano was a law student at North Carolina Central University in 2022, when he took a job at an Amazon warehouse near the city of Raleigh to earn some extra cash.

The past month has been unlike any other during his three-year tenure at the company. Now, when he shows up for his shift at the shipping dock, Medelius-Marsano says he’s met with flyers and mounted TVs urging him to “vote no,” as well as QR codes on workstations that lead to an anti-union website. During meetings, managers discourage unionization.

The facility in the suburb of Garner, North Carolina, employs roughly 4,700 workers and is the site of Amazon’s latest labor showdown. Workers at the site are voting this week on whether to join Carolina Amazonians United for Solidarity (CAUSE), a grassroots union made up of current and former employees.

CAUSE organizers started the group in 2022 in an effort to boost wages and improve working conditions. Voting at the site, known as RDU1, wraps up on Saturday.

Workers at RDU1 and other facilities told CNBC that Amazon is increasingly using digital tools to deter employees from unionizing. That includes messaging through the company’s app and workstation computers. There’s also automated software and handheld package scanners used to track employee performance inside the warehouse, so the company knows when staffers are working or doing something else.

“You cannot get away from the anti-union propaganda or being surveilled, because when you walk into work they have cameras all over the building,” said Medelius-Marsano, who is an organizer with CAUSE. “You can’t get into work without scanning a badge or logging into a machine. That’s how they track you.”

CAUSE representatives have also made their pitch to RDU1 employees. The union has set up a “CAUSE HQ” tent across the street from the warehouse and disbursed leaflets in the facility’s break room.

Amazon, the nation’s second-largest private employer, has long sought to keep unions out of its ranks. The strategy succeeded in the U.S. until 2022, when workers at a Staten Island warehouse voted to join the Amazon Labor Union. Last month, workers at a Whole Foods store in Philadelphia voted to join the United Food and Commercial Workers union.

In December, Amazon delivery and warehouse workers at nine facilities went on strike, organized by the Teamsters, during the height of the holiday shopping season to push the company to the bargaining table. The strike ended on Christmas Eve.

Union elections at other Amazon warehouses in New York have finished in defeat in recent years, while the results of a union drive at an Alabama facility are being contested. Organizers have pointed to Amazon’s near-constant monitoring of employees as both a catalyst and a deterrent of union campaigns.

The NLRB has 343 open or settled unfair labor practice charges filed with the agency against Amazon, its subsidiaries and contracted delivery companies in the U.S., a spokesperson said. 

Amazon has argued in legal filings that the NLRB, which issues complaints against companies or unions determined to have violated labor law, is unconstitutional. Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Starbucks and Trader Joe’s have also made similar claims that challenge the agency’s authority.

Amazon spokeswoman Eileen Hards said the company’s employees can choose whether or not to join a union.

“We believe that both decisions should be equally protected which is why we talk openly, candidly and respectfully about these topics, actively sharing facts with employees so they can use that information to make an informed decision,” Hards said in a statement.

Hards said the company doesn’t retaliate against employees for union activities, and called claims that its employee monitoring discourages them from unionizing “odd.”

“The site is operating, so employees are still expected to perform their usual work,” Hards said in a statement. “Further, the camera technology in our facilities isn’t to surveil employees — it’s to help guide the flow of goods through the facilities and ensure security and safety of both employees and inventory.”

Orin Starn, a CAUSE organizer who was fired by Amazon early last year for violating the company’s drug and alcohol policy, called Amazon’s employee tracking “algorithmic management of labor.” Starn is an anthropology professor at Duke University who began working undercover at RDU1 in 2023 to conduct research for a book on Amazon.

“Where 100 years ago in a factory you would’ve had a supervisor come around to tell you if you’re slacking off, now in a modern warehouse like Amazon, you’re tracked digitally through a scanner,” Starn said.

John Logan, a professor and director of labor and employment studies at San Francisco State University, told CNBC in an email that Amazon has “perfected the weaponization” of technology, workplace surveillance and algorithmic management during anti-union campaigns “more than any other company.”

While Amazon may be more sophisticated than others, “the use of data analytics is becoming far more common in anti-union campaigns across the country,” Logan said. He added that it’s ”extremely common” for companies to try to improve working conditions or sweeten employee perks during a union drive.

Other academics are paying equally close attention to the issue. In a research paper published last week, Northwestern University PhD candidate Teke Wiggin explored Amazon’s use of algorithms and digital devices at the company’s BHM1 warehouse in Bessemer, Alabama.

“The black box and lack of accountability that comes with algorithmic management makes it harder for a worker or activist to decide if they’re being retaliated against,” Wiggin said in an interview. “Maybe their schedule changes a little bit, work feels harder than it used to, the employer can say that has nothing to do with us, that’s just the algorithm. But we have no idea if the algorithm has changed.”

Some Amazon employees see the situation differently. Storm Smith works at RDU1 as a process assistant, which involves monitoring worker productivity and safety. Amazon referred Smith to CNBC in the course of reporting this story.

Amazon’s workplace controls, like rate and time off task, are “part of the job,” Smith said. Staffers are “always welcome” to ask her what their rate is, she added.

“For my people, if I see your rate is not where it’s supposed to be, I’ll come up to you and say, ’Hey, this is your rate, are you feeling alright? Is there anything I could get you to get your rate up? Like a snack, a drink, whatever,” Smith said.

Wiggin interviewed 42 BHM1 employees following the first election in 2021, and reviewed NLRB records of hearings. The facility employed more than 5,800 workers at the time of the union drive.

The NLRB last November ordered a third union vote to be held at BHM1 after finding Amazon improperly interfered in two previous elections. The company has denied wrongdoing.

Amazon staffers told Wiggin that during the union campaign, the company tweaked some performance expectations to “improve working conditions” and dissuade them from unionizing. One employee said these changes were partly why he voted against the union, according to the study.

Workers at an Amazon warehouse outside St. Louis, Missouri, filed an NLRB complaint in May. The employees accused Amazon of using “intrusive algorithms” that track when they’re working to discourage them from organizing, The Guardian reported. The employees withdrew their complaint on Tuesday.

Hards said Amazon doesn’t require employees to meet specific productivity speeds or targets.

Lawmakers zeroed in on how surveillance can impact organizing efforts in recent years. In 2022, the former NLRB general counsel issued a memo calling for the group to address corporate use of “omnipresent surveillance and other algorithmic-management tools” to disrupt organizing efforts. The following year, the Biden Administration put out a request for information on automated worker surveillance and management, noting that the systems can pose risks to employees, including “their rights to form or join a labor union.”

However, the Trump administration is attempting to purge the NLRB, with the president firing the chair of the organization on his first day in office last month. Trump has put Musk, a notorious opponent of unions, in charge of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, with the goal of cutting government costs and slashing regulations.

One of the most direct ways Amazon is able to disseminate anti-union messages is through the AtoZ app, which is an essential tool in their daily work.

The app is used by warehouse workers to access pay stubs and tax forms, request schedule changes or vacation time, post on the “Voice of the Associate” message board, and communicate with human resources.

Jennifer Bates, a prominent union organizer at BHM1, learned Amazon fired her through AtoZ in 2023. She was later reinstated by Amazon “after a full review of her case,” and provided backpay, Hards said.

The Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, which sought to represent BHM1 workers, has said the AtoZ app can access a user’s GPS, photos, camera, microphone and WiFi-connection information. The union also claims that “Amazon can sell the data collected to any third party companies and that data cannot be deleted.” The technology raises several concerns, including that it may suppress “the right to organize,” RWDSU said.

Hards said the RWDSU’s claims are inaccurate and denied that the company sells any data affiliated with AtoZ use. She said AtoZ users must give the app permission to access things like their GPS location.

At the Garner facility, the AtoZ app has been plastered with “anti-union propaganda” since the RDU1 election was announced last month, Medelius-Marsano said.

One AtoZ message suggested employees’ benefits could be at risk if they voted in a union, while another described CAUSE as an “outside party” that’s “claiming to be a union.”

RDU1 site leader Kristen Tettemer said in another message that a group like CAUSE “can get in the way of how we work together,” and that “once in, a union is very difficult to remove.” Smith said Amazon’s response to the union drive has been centered around “putting out the facts and telling you to do your research.”

Medelius-Marsano said it all amounts to an environment of intimidation.

“There’s no doubt about it,” Medelius-Marsano said. “If we lose, fear is going to be the reason.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS